It appears as if the concern about the 2010 mid term debacle that awaits Democrats in the House and Senate is going mainstream now. One of the AP’s most ardent Obama apologists, Liz Sidoti, passes on some alarming news for The One’s faithful legions:
The news is worse for other Democrats. For the first time this year, about as many Americans approve of congressional Republicans as Democrats — 38 percent to 41 percent — and neither has an edge when it comes to the party voters want controlling Congress. Democrats also have lost their advantage on the economy; people now trust both parties equally on that, another first in 2010.
Roughly half want to fire their own congressman.
And it could get worse for Democrats: One-third of those surveyed consider themselves tea party supporters and three-quarters of those people are overwhelmingly Republicans or right-leaning independents. That means they are more likely to vote with the GOP in this fall’s midterms, when energized base voters will be crucial amid the typical low turnout of a non-presidential election year.
Does that sound familiar? And remember, this is an AP sponsored poll. A plethora of other polls indicate even worse news for President Obama and Speaker Pelosi. The over/under on Democrat losses in the House is floating around fifty right now. Nate Silver has an interesting graph (which I have linked to before) that tracks potential Democratic losses in the House of Representatives relative to the generic ballot count. Readers might want to bookmark that graph as more data emerges about electoral sentiment. Also, Real Clear Politics has some interesting comments:
So how bad could 2010 get for the Democrats? Let me say upfront that I tend to agree with analysts who argue that if we move into a “V”-shaped recovery and President Obama’s job approval improves, Democratic losses could be limited to twenty or twenty-five seats.
That said, I think those who suggest that the House is barely in play, or that we are a long way from a 1994-style scenario are missing the mark. A 1994-style scenario is probably the most likely outcome at this point. Moreover, it is well within the realm of possibility – not merely a far-fetched scenario – that Democratic losses could climb into the 80 or 90-seat range. The Democrats are sailing into a perfect storm of factors influencing a midterm election, and if the situation declines for them in the ensuing months, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Democratic losses eclipse 100 seats.
I’m not so sure about the 100 seat turnover (but keep your eye on the generic ballot and Silver’s analysis), but I’m certain about one thing. There will be no V shaped recovery because there are no pro growth policies in the Obama / Pelosi legislative pipeline, much less passed legislation that will encourage employment recovery. And there is nothing Democrats can or will do in the intervening months to change this. As I have said before, we are witnessing a political implosion of monumental proportions right now.