Election Predictions: House +55-57R, Senate, +8R

With the midterm elections less than a week away, many polling agencies and pundits are offering up their final predictions on the overall outcome of the elections. Larry Sabato over at the Center for Politics has offered up his thoughts. His final predictions? The Republicans gain 55 seats in the House, 8 in the Senate, and 8-9 Governorships. His Senate analysis is perhaps most interesting:

We believe the GOP will hold all its open seats (FL, KY, MO, NH, OH). This is quite an accomplishment in itself, since the early assumption was that at least a couple would switch sides. In addition, Republicans will probably pick up most of the following: AR, CO, IL, IN, NV, ND, PA, and WI. The closest appear to be CO, IL, NV, and PA. These races, especially the first three, are so tight that a strong breeze could change the result, so the GOP may well come up one or two short in this category. By the way, if Republicans do win the +8 we have projected, then they only have to unexpectedly pick off two of the following states to take control: CA, CT, WA, or WV. CT seems least likely, WA most likely-but any of the foursome would be an upset.

In our pre-Labor Day analysis, however, we noted a historical anomaly: Since World War II, the House has changed parties six times, and in every case, the Senate switched, too. In five of the six cases, most prognosticators did not see the Senate turnover coming. (Only in 2006 did some guess correctly, including the Crystal Ball.) So if we have a big surprise on election night, this could be it, despite the pre-election odds against it.Follow the link, above, to see a state-by-state breakdown.

It is perhaps more interesting that these final predictions seem to be converging. Jay Cost, now writing for the Weekly Standard, has also published his election predictions. The numbers are almost identical. Cost projects gains by Republicans of 57 in the House, 8 in the Senate, and 8-9 Governorships. He does not provide a state-by-state breakdown but one can assume that his polling analysis gave similar results.

So what say you? Is 55 in the House too high or too low? Is 8 in the Senate being conservative or is control of the Senate out of reach? Feel free to make your predictions below and in any event we’ll know in less than a week.

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