Show this Graph to Every Voter

It’s been increasingly clear over the last few months that someone is cooking the books on employment numbers.

It takes 200,000 new jobs per month just to absorb the delta between young people entering the Job Market and older people exiting the market.  When “new jobs” are lower than 200,000, and unemployment “falls” there’s an unspoken “adjustment” being made somewhere.

 

Don’t Show This Chart To The President

By Tyler Durden | ZeroHedge

One can write lengthy essays, op-eds, and client letters explaining both why the labor force participation rate is plunging due to innocuous reasons such as everyone over 40 retiring yesterday full of jouissance and excitement to begin the sunset phase of their lives using copious life savings earning 0.0001% in interest, or, inversely, why this is one great big propaganda ploy by the BLS to make Obama look good a few short months ahead of the pre-election debt ceiling breach, pardon, his re-election date. We prefer cutting to the chase. Here is today’s chart of the day from BofA, which begs one simple question: when will the two time series recouple, because recouple they will, and how will America react to the realization it was lied to for 2% worth of unemployment “improvement”? The chart says it all.

 

 

Looks like both employment stagnation and figuring liars at the BLS to me…

Hat Tip: Margaret Leber at Google+

Shortlink:

Posted by on April 9, 2012.
Filed under 2012 Presidential Race, Economics, Employment.
Tagged with: .


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  • jim_m

    When obama spoke of “Shovel Ready” projects, I didn’t think he meant burying the economy.

    • http://wizbangblog.com/author/rodney-graves/ Rodney G. Graves

      This would be a prime example of why Democrats insist on being judged by their intentions, and not their accomplishments.

      • Hank_M

         Says a lot about their “accomplishments”.

        • http://wizbangblog.com/author/rodney-graves/ Rodney G. Graves

          Don’t it just?

          • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_G7YIUZMXOD5JGZZTCYMVA75KFU Shadow

             If you understand their real intentions they have done quite well.

    • UOG

      For the MSM the only “shovel ready” project from now until November is writing stories (honest to goodness stories… totally unencumbered by facts) that will get BHO re-elected. It’s going to take a lot of shovels. Big shovels. And lots of “stuff” to shovel. But they are a dedicated lot and will give it their very best effort. Anybody else see Sunday’s AP story on Yahoo News about how inflation is a good sign for the economy as well as us drones?

  • 914

    The dems would undoubtedly vote ‘yea’ in requiring voter ID to view Barry’s handiwork..

  • EricSteel

    The thing is that Presidents have limited control over the economy. The Legislative Branch however, plays a huge part in the economy. Notice, that the downturn began in 2007, what changed in 2007? Control of the House and Senate went to the Democrats. It is the result of their bad policies that made this crisis. What influence Obama has over the economy, has only made a bad situation worse.

    • jim_m

       The thing is that Presidents have limited control over the economy.

      To a certain extent this is true.  What a President can influence is policies that effect economic growth.  obama has pushed for a high tax, high regulation business environment that has discouraged growth, hiring and the risk taking necessary to create growth.

      A President cannot create economic growth, but he can throttle it in the cradle and that is exactly what obama has been doing.

  • lasveraneras

    I’m not about to take on the task, but it’s possible this divergence can be explained by the way BLS calculates “unemployment.”  Presumably the employment to population ratio tracks the number of people in the work force.  The workforce participation rate since 2007 has dropped from 63% to 58%, i.e. millions of the formerly employed have left the workforce.  It’s important to understand that not all of these people are counted by the BLS as “unemployed.”  This is a slight oversimplification but, essentially, if you do not report that you have actively looked for a job in the last 4 weeks, even if you wish to be re-employed, you are NOT counted as “unemployed.”  What we have then is, as Amity Shlaes would say, the “forgotten” unemployed; those people who are discouraged and have given up looking for a new job.  The BLS simply ignores their existence.  Needless to say this does not absolve The Won from responsibility for his less than stellar economic policies.  In fact, if the working age population returned to a feeling of optimism – a sort of New Morning In America – the unemployment would, as I understand it, rise to 11-12% almost immediately (based on historic workforce participation rates of 63%) as the “forgotten” unemployed actively sought employment and were thus included in the BLS calculations.

    • http://wizbangblog.com/author/rodney-graves/ Rodney G. Graves

      You miss the unemployed who have exhausted their benefits and thus are not counted, nor those attempting to enter the workplace who cannot find jobs.

      Note also that unemployment figures of late are always adjusted up, never down, which also tends to indicate a finger on the scale…

  • ackwired

    It sounds like you are saying that you don’t understand the divergence so you assume someone is lying.  Who reports the numbers?  Is the lyer a political appointee or a career government employee?  Are you accusing everyone involved in the compilation of the numbers of a conspiracy.  What is it and who is it that you are accusing?

    • http://wizbangblog.com/author/rodney-graves/ Rodney G. Graves

      It sounds like you don’t understand the divergence and are assuming that the BLS is playing strait.

    • http://wizbangblog.com/author/rodney-graves/ Rodney G. Graves

       http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/apr/9/obamas-cooked-jobs-books/

      • ackwired

        Rodney,

        Thanks for the link.  I found the article misleading in that they had to make it sound as though the Obama administration had changed the way that the unemployment number is calculated and made it sound as though the administration was able to choose how the calculation is performed.  Of course, the numbers are not calculated by political appointees, and politics plays no part in their calculation, regardless of the party in power. 

        It is important to understand that more people are becoming discouraged and no longer counted as looking for work.  But it is quite clear that there is no “cooking of the books” taking place here. 

        • http://wizbangblog.com/author/rodney-graves/ Rodney G. Graves

          Politics is not supposed to impact the calculations.  Something demonstrably is (even Rasmussen called out the BLS on the growing disparity between BLS numbers and Rasmussen surveys on unemployment). 

          • ackwired

            Rassmussen is a polling organization.  They recently conducted a poll indicating that 48% of Americans knew someone who had given up looking for work.  But I saw no subjective accusation of the BLS.

            Do you have a link?

          • http://wizbangblog.com/author/rodney-graves/ Rodney G. Graves
          • Harold Stadler

            ” Rassmussen is a polling organization”….

            So bright boy/girl how do you think the BLS gets its numbers?  They poll, just like Gallup!  If you are going to defend this administration and the hacks at BLS at least get the facts!

  • 914

    “Show this Graph to Every Voter”

    Especially if they are into Downhill Skiing!!!