Mitt Still Hasn’t Convinced

On his nationally syndicated radio show on Wednesday, April 25, Republican talk show host Michael Medved gloated over the fact that Mitt Romney won a wave of primaries with no effort, hands down, with no competition. But has Romney convinced his base? Are voters enthusiastic for him? The facts don’t convince.

When you look at the delegate count and the number of primaries he’s won, it almost does seem that Romney is GOP voter’s favorite. But looking closer at the margins of his wins tells a different story. So, establishment flacks like Medved are indulging bombast instead of serious commentary.

Granted Medved allows his desire to be right in his advocacy overwhelm his common sense and he has always been a sellout to the GOP establishment, but while he is right that Romney has been the winner he’s only been a nominal favorite, not one that has run away with the field.

Last week, Delaware and Pennsylvania, for instance, were indicative of this lack of enthusiasm Romney is suffering because in neither primary did Romney win 60 percent of the vote.

This is significant because, as Eric Ostermeier notes, no presumptive nominee has ever gotten under 60% in these two primaries this late in the game.

A Smart Politics review of Republican primary election data since 1972 finds that Mitt Romney’s performances in Delaware and Pennsylvania mark the first time a GOP frontrunner has failed to reach the 60 percent mark in a contest conducted after his last major challenger dropped out of the race.

Couple this with the startling inroads that first Newt Gingrich and then — more successfully — Rick Santorum made into Romney’s primary campaigns and you see a probable nominee that, while he won more than the others on strict wins and loses, he only did so by spare margins in many cases.

What this shows is that the GOP base has still not warmed to Mitt Romney as their nominee. He’s become the default candidate, the “one that can win,” as opposed to the one everyone is excited about.

This won’t necessarily doom Romney’s candidacy, of course. What he needs to do from this point is truly drive home how disastrous Obama has been for this country. If this election becomes a vote on how wonderful Mitt Romney is, he’ll easily lose. It has to be about Obama.

To win, Romney absolutely must make this election a referendum on Obama’s failures. Clearly Romney’s own voters are not excited about him – at this point it doesn’t seem that they ever will be — but what they find increasingly foreboding is the idea of allowing Obama a second term.

So, what we must understand is that most Republicans and conservatives will not be enthusiastic to vote for Mitt Romney. They will, though, be enthusiastic to vote against Barack Obama. Romney has to run his campaign on the basis.

The Last Helicopter; the true legacy of the Flower Children
Weekend Caption Contest™ Winners
  • 914

    Yep! He’s lame. But Obama is lame and expensive..   

    ABO

  • Commander_Chico

    Read a joke today -

    A liberal, a moderate, and a conservative walk into a bar:

    The bartender looks up and says, “Hi Mitt.”

    • retired.military

      I think the middle will so overwhelmingly reject Obama just because Romney is middle of the road that Obama wont stand a chance.

  • Guest

    You need base plus the middle to win the general election.  You had a lot of base politicians in the bunch that ran, but I don’t think any of them, with the possible exception of Huntsman, could have carried the middle in the general election.

  • ackwired

    I think we all know in our hearts that there would be very little difference between a Romney administration and on Obama administration, and we are not going to like either.

    • 914

      The difference’s between a Barry or  Mitt administration would be like Night and Day!

      • http://www.rustedsky.net JLawson

        Well, that’s a bit racist.

        How about the difference between Obama and Romney is like the difference between a lethal dose of VX nerve gas and sniffing fresh ground pepper?

        • http://2012.ak4mc.us/ McGehee

          The difference between Obama and Romney will be that Republicans will be saddled with having to defend Romney — to their own base.

    • http://www.rustedsky.net JLawson

      I’ll take “The Devil I Don’t Know” for $16 billion, Alex.

      • http://wizbangblog.com/author/rodney-graves/ Rodney G. Graves

         Trillion, JLawson, Trillion…

        • http://www.rustedsky.net JLawson

          If they don’t care about the difference, why should !?

      • ackwired

        Give me 16 billion and I’d shill for either of them!

        • http://www.rustedsky.net JLawson

          Gotta admit, it’d be tempting!

    • Vagabond661

      one huge difference will be obamacare. another will be we will lose 7 states. another will be we will see more dogs on top of cars instead of on our plates. maybe we will see less news about contraception and more about the economy.

      • ackwired

        LOL…like we said, no big difference!

        • Vagabond661

          oh then great! Join me and vote for Romney. We will save a ton on just Michele’s vacations.

          • ackwired

            LOL…I’m listening to him.

    • retired.military

      So you will join us in voting for Romney yes?

      • ackwired

        I can’t see any reason to yet.  I will be listening, but I need to hear more than “I’m a good businessman and I know what to do”.

        If things still look like this in November, I’ll be voting for Gary Johnson.

        • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IZ5BM5GNLA54OADSWGSXAMA7SY Jay

          Romney’s not a good businessman.  He was 47th in job creation as Governor.

          • ackwired

            A governor’s “Job Creation” is meaningless, and so is a President’s.  I will be interested to hear how Romney means to balance deficits with stimulus and his plans for the Federal Reserve.

          • klaffner

            Romney’s spending reduction plans/positions are strong but not specific.  That will not change in the course of the campaign.  He has been totally silent on the Federal Reserve.  I also wish he would make a speech that would at least connect the deficits to inflation.  

          • ackwired

            A governor’s “Job Creation” is meaningless, and so is a President’s.  I will be interested to hear how Romney means to balance deficits with stimulus and his plans for the Federal Reserve.

          • klaffner

            This talking point is by far the lamest.  The connection between the economy of a state creating jobs and a single term governor is as tenuous as it gets.  Romney’s fiscal record is more on point.  It was outstanding and it actually can be related to his performance as governor.  

          • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IZ5BM5GNLA54OADSWGSXAMA7SY Jay

            What, that he balanced the budget?  Like all of the other governors who did so before him?  Whoopdie doo.

            Why doesn’t Romney talk more about his time in Massachusetts, instead opting to talk about how great his own father was?

          • retired.military

            “ExpandWhat, that he balanced the budget?”Again.  That is miles ahead of where Obama ever hopes to be.

          • retired.military

            Which still beats Obama by a few miles.

      • dlg1956

        Not one bit of legislative difference between Mittens and Odummer, I’m writing in for POTUS. Here is an interesting article detailing 5 reasons conservatives should be hoping Mittens looses, I agree with every point:

        http://reason.com/archives/2012/05/01/five-reasons-why-conservatives-should-ro

    • klaffner

      I think you know in your heart that Mitt is a doctrinaire conservative who will be a fine president.  

      • ackwired

        LOL…actually a doctrinaire anything is about the last thing I would want.  We need the person in that office to think, not just do what some political philosophy dictates.

        • http://www.facebook.com/people/Don-Lond/100000950693221 Don Lond

          Yeah, we can always get our moral and philisophical direction from that guy behind the curtain…..

          Isn’t it Obama’s doctrinaire socialism that is destroying the nation? And we’re going to fight that with vacuous thinking?

          • ackwired

            If you want a doctrinaire in office, I would recommend that you try to find one to vote for.  Oops…sorry.  None in sight. 

  • herddog505

    Warner Todd Huston[M]ost Republicans and conservatives will not be enthusiastic to vote for Mitt Romney. They will, though, be enthusiastic to vote against Barack Obama. Romney has to run his campaign on the basis. [emphasis original - hd505]

    Yes.  Except for the fact that his name isn’t “Barack Hussein Obama” and he (nominally) hasn’t got a (d) behind his name, I can’t think of a single reason to vote for Mitt.

    Bah.

    • jim_m

       He doesn’t hate America and he doesn’t think that capitalism is a failed economic system.  He believes in the rule of law and doesn’t have a lengthy list of communists as mentors and advisers.  He believes that people should be allowed to become rich and that being successful shouldn’t mean having your stuff stolen by the state to give to lazy slugs who can’t achieve what you did.

      Yeah, Romney isn’t a thrill down my leg, but he’s a damn sight better than obama.  Just about anyone who doesn’t want to turn the US into a repeat of East Germany falls into that category.

      • Idahoser

        You’re projecting.  You have no evidence that any of that is true.  Romney will simply guarantee that the next democrat will be ten times worse than Zero.  And he will win.

        • klaffner

          There is plenty of evidence that what jim_m is saying is true.  If you don’t see any, just give yourself a chance to look for some.  

          • http://wizbangblog.com/author/rodney-graves/ Rodney G. Graves

            None so blind as those who refuse to see.

    • klaffner

      That’s reason enough herddog.  See you at the polls on November 6.  

  • Brucepall

    IMHO the difference between the two: will be hitting the wall of a financial hurricane – with its attendant banking holiday, high double-digit unemployment, human suffering, and civil strife… and a final chance for a new majority party – to roll-up their sleeves and make clear-headed, adult decisions, for the good of all the people in our country.

    In November 2008, the Democrats won super majorities in both the Senate and the People’s House… and along with the Presidency, the Democrats had all the political fire-power to solve our nation’s financial problems and do what was necessary to put things right.  Instead, they catered to corrupt cronyism and their special interest, by accelerating federal spending to obscene levels on their minions and pet projects.  

    Just four short years later, in November 2012, the Democrat Party will have been swept out of power.  At the eleventh hour, the Republican Party will finally get their chance at a majority in the Senate, in the People’s House, and the Presidency.

    An unprecedented change in the political fortunes in the history of our country.

    And unless the Republicans clean house from top to bottom, without first cutting what is not necessary for the entire country as a whole – like the pork, waste, and their pet special interest projects – before cutting those programs that truly harm the weak among us – like the poor, the vulnerable, and the infirm and aged, they too will fail… then we could all perish in the storm.

    In the aftermath of this coming November elections – it is imperative that our elected leaders get it right… we will not be afforded another chance.  FWIW-

    Semper Fidelis-

    • ackwired

      There are plenty of challenges for the winners.  Both parties have been in power before and neither has even tried to do the things you outline.  I don’t hear either party taliking along those lines this time either.  The D’s refuse to cut entitlements and the R’s refuse to pay for even the government that they do want.  The two seem to be conspiring to lead us to ruin.

      • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IZ5BM5GNLA54OADSWGSXAMA7SY Jay

        I’m pretty sure that both Democrats and Republicans are going to increase the age on Social Security pretty soon.

        Also, Romney will push for an even larger austerity plan.  Meanwhile, if you want to see the problems of the austerity, look at Greece, the UK, and Spain.  

        • Brucepall

          Mr. Jay,

          I can pretty much divide folks up into three basic types: Those that lead, those that follow, and those that just suddenly wake up and wonder what in the hell just happened.  

          What a world view you have… where left is right, up is down, and out-of-control spending is austerity.

          While it may be too late for Jay’s Greece, UK, and Spain to avoid bankruptcy… its not quite too late for us to avoid your fate.

          Semper Fidelis-

          • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IZ5BM5GNLA54OADSWGSXAMA7SY Jay

            Bruce, divide people all you want to.  Meanwhile, reality is the here and now.

          • retired.military

            ‘ Meanwhile, reality is the here and now.”

            aND A 3rd statement which is still miles ahead of where Obama ever hopes to be.

        • retired.military

          “Also, Romney will push for an even larger austerity plan. Meanwhile, if you want to see the problems of the austerity, look at Greece, the UK, and Spain”

          Which are exactly the plans that Obama wants the US to follow

          • jim_m

             AUsterity isn’t the problem.  The problem is a government that promises the world and cannot afford it.  obama is promising never ending spending and claiming hat the rish will bank roll it with just a tiny tax increase.

            Reality is that the rich don’t have enough assets that if you confiscated everything they own you couldn’t pay for one year of obama’s BS.

            obama is bankrupting the nation and the result will be he same unrest that you see in Greece etc.  Leftist rioting over austerity is not a bug in this plan it is a feature.  obama wants to drive people into he streets to demonstrate against putting this government back on sound financial footing. 

            When things get far enough out of hand he will simply monetize the debt.  Then here will be no more rich because money won’t be worth anything.

  • Gmacr1

    As much as I despise Mittens he STILL isn’t Obama, and that’s good enough for me.

  • Brucepall

    Ackwired,

    I subscribe to the “Austrian School” of economics.  Folks like Hayek and Mises were clear-headed thinkers who were spot-on when it comes to understanding human nature and behavior and the free enterprise capitalist system.  At its most simple: Bad money chases out good, and you can’t borrow your way to prosperity, nor spend your way out of debt. 

    Neither can you print endless fiat money, frustrate price discovery, nor keep the markets from clearing – without serious consequences to (currency valuations and) everyone’s well being.  

    We, the good ol’ US of A, are the largest gross debtor nation in the world – bar none (we’re in worse shape than Greece, Belarus, Cypress, Argentina, or even Japan!).  In aggregate, we have the world’s worst current-account, trade , and budget deficit balance of any developed country on the face of the earth… and its been building for years (Don’t believe me? Take a look at the ‘economic and financial indicators’ – the last table page of the Economist, any issue, over the last several years).  Even the Federal Reserve cannot keep buying up our US Treasury debt, and postponing the day of reckoning much longer.

    In the near future, the markets for our federal debt will hit a solid brick wall…it will be a worldwide smash-up of epic proportions, which will make the great recession of 2008 look like a very disconcerting wake-up-call.  

    This is the reason our politicians will be compelled to act, and save what can be salvaged from a catastrophic global financial debacle.  Its that serious a problem.

    Do I want this to happen?  Absolutely not.  I would be more than relieved to be wrong; but we’re running out of time.  I can do the math… and thus see real possibilities of what may happen.  For example, I live in Savannah, and believe her citizens would riot within hours of the ATM machines running out of cash (due to a declared national emergency banking holiday)… perhaps it would be so in your part of the country too?

    More to the point, if Obama and the Democrats are running the Presidency and the Senate when it happens…  think about how they would react… and what they would do.   

    Semper Fidelis-

     

  • dlg1956

    5 reasons why conservative should hope for a Romney defeat:

    http://reason.com/archives/2012/05/01/five-reasons-why-conservatives-should-ro

    • http://wizbangblog.com/author/rodney-graves/ Rodney G. Graves

      Why thank you for that contribution, Doug.

Optimization WordPress Plugins & Solutions by W3 EDGE