Poll Thoughts

July 19, 2012 | Filed under 2012 Presidential Race | Posted by

Now that the General Election season is in full swing, it’s time to look at some polls.  There are four new national polls out, from CBS News/NYT, NPR, FOX News, and Rasmussen.  Taken at face value, their results are as follows:

 

CBS News:  Obama 46%, Romney 47%

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57475191/cbs-news-new-york-times-poll-7-18-12/?tag=contentMain;contentBody

NPR:  Obama 47%, Romney 45%

http://www.npr.org/news/polls/npr.pdf

FOX News:  Obama 45%, Romney 41%

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2012/07/18/fox-news-poll-37-voters-say-are-better-off-than-four-years-ago/

Rasmussen: Obama 46%, Romney 47%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

 

The polls all show a close race within the margin of error.  But there’s an interesting point of methodology here.  Here are the political demographic weights of those polls:

 

CBS News:  Democrats 32.14%, Republicans 25.16%, Independents 42.70%  (Registered Voters)

NPR:  Democrats 36%, Republicans 29%, Independents 31%  (Likely Voters)

FOX News:  Democrats 42%, Republicans 38%, Independents 18%  (Likely Voters)

Rasmussen:  Democrats 36%, Republicans 31%, Independents 33%  (Likely Voters)

 

Compare that to voter turnout by party in past presidential elections:

 

2008:  Democrats 39%, Republicans 32%, Independents 29%

2004:  Democrats 37%, Republicans 37%, Independents 26%

2000:  Democrats 39%, Republicans 35%, Independents 26%

1996:  Democrats 40%, Republicans 35%, Independents 22%

 

If the poll data is backed out and re-weighted by party turnout from past elections, here are the results based on those turnouts:

 

2008:  Obama 47%, Romney 46%

2004:  Obama 46%, Romney 50%

2000:  Obama 47%, Romney 49%

1996:  Obama 46%, Romney 47%

 

So, if turnout this year is like 1996 or 2008, Obama has a close lead, but Romney may be in better shape than the polls indicate, if turnout is more like that of 2000 or 2004.

 

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Posted by on July 19, 2012.
Filed under 2012 Presidential Race.
Tagged with: • • • • .
DJ Drummond holds an MBA with a concentration in Accounting, and has worked in Finance/Credit for 13 years, with 17 years of Operations Management experience before that. He writes on political, religious, and cancer-related issues, with the occasional foray into satire and snark.

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  • jim_m

    And if turnout is more like 2010?

    • http://opinion.ak4mc.us/ Scribe of Slog (McGehee)

      D.C. would still go for Obama.

      Probably.

    • http://wizbangblog.com/author/rodney-graves/ Rodney G. Graves

      Exactly. The popular vote breakdown from 2010 is the best indicator per Barrone (which as I recall was 53-47).

  • jim_m

    DJ, I’m willing to bet that both Michigan and Wisconsin go red in November.

  • retired.military

    Romney 55% Obama 45%

    obama wont get 200 Electoral votes.

    • herddog505

      Let us pray that you’re right.

      Romney ain’t my first choice by a long shot (in just about any other state than Taxachusetts, he’d have a (d) after his name), but he’s MILES ahead of Barry.

      Hell, their are lunatics at the state mental hospitals who are miles ahead of Barry…

  • MichaelLaprarie

    So what you’re saying is that everyone oversamples independents. Interesting. Limbaugh has noted on several occasions that Carter lead Reagan all through the summer of 1980, and some polls right before the election had Carter winning. I don’t think we’ll be seeing anything accurate in polling until right before the election, which is when I think our current economic downturn will be too strong to ignore.

  • http://www.facebook.com/Stan25 Stan Brewer

    I don’t where these pollsters get their info. Sure as hell not from the average Joe Sixpack. I don’t care what these polls suggest, all I know is that this election is going to be one for the ages. Obama and the DemocRATs are to going to be shellacked in November. This election will make 2010 look like a horse race.

  • LiberalNightmare

    It does explain why the dems seem so … frantic lately.

  • 914

    Real numbers reflect Otaxa’s unemployed performance. : 8.2% reported = 19.65745% Romney/ Obama 45% neck n neck = ABO 55%!! Hopeless change.. 42%

  • 914

    Otaxa will not win Minnesota either! I have a lot of friends that voted for him that are totally disgusted with whats going on.. The three big cities will be stoopid like always, but outstate, it is going to be 78% ABO :)

  • Sky__Captain

    I still firmly believe there are at least 3 groups who still want to ignore the sea change in American politics in 2010:
    1) The dinosaur media
    2) Democrats
    3) Republican elites

    The dinosaur media is doing its level best to waaaay over sample Democrats in order to keep the polling close to push the meme of “0bama’s still in the game!”.
    A true poll based on 2010 party split among likely voters would most likely show Barry trailing by 5-7 points, which would be death for Teh Won this far out from the election.

  • Joseph Bencini

    These pollsters are not being paid for ACCURACY they being paid for RESULTS. Otherwise their results would be kept private. For 30 years now the polls have had a distinct liberal bias of at least +/- 5% in favor of liberals. This is to gin up illusions and to motivate their base to get out and vote. Fortunately for us most liberal voters were undereducated by the system they’ve devised and don’t understand the unintended consequence of their own ignorance and deceit.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Jack-Zimms/100003653414389 Jack Zimms

    It looks like getting your base out is more important than
    peeling off a few voters from the other side.