Yale University Economic Model Gives Election to Romney

Based on his economic election model, Yale University economist Ray Fair predicts that GOP nominee Mitt Romney will pull out a sparse victory in November.

Fair’s model successfully predicts the winners of every election but two since 1916. The two, the 1960 election of John Kennedy and the 1992 election of Bill Clinton, are the only ones his economics-based electoral prediction model gets wrong.

Fair uses several economic indicators in his model to determine winners. Those factors include the per capita growth rate of the gross domestic product, inflation, and the number of quarters that the GDP grew more than 3.2% during the incumbent’s term.

But even Fair’s model predicts a race that is within his margin of error. Obama could still pull this out despite an economy that argues against his re-election.

As The Wall Street Journal’s Justin Lahart postulates, this could be because voters don’t exactly see the election in pure economic terms and with this particular election being so close, that small differentiation between logical economic indicators and the emotional ties some voters have to their choice can easily upset Fair’s economic prediction model this time out.

Still, Lahart also notes that Friday’s report that the economy grew at but a tiny 2% rate, the three most unfavorable statistics for Obama are “now in hand.” These factors plugged into Fair’s model would argue in favor of Mitt Romney winning on Election Day.

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Posted by Warner Todd Huston on October 31, 2012.
Filed under 2012 Presidential Race, Economics, Elections.
Warner Todd Huston is a Chicago-based freelance writer, has been writing opinion editorials and social criticism since early 2001 and is featured on many websites such as Andrew Breitbart's BigGovernment.com and BigJournalism.com, RightWingNews.com, CanadaFreePress.com, RightPundits.com, StoptheACLU.com, Human Events Magazine, among many, many others. Additionally, he has been a frequent guest on talk-radio programs to discuss his opinion editorials and current events.He has also written for several history magazines and appears in the new book "Americans on Politics, Policy and Pop Culture" which can be purchased on amazon.com. He is also the owner and operator of PubliusForum.com. Feel free to contact him with any comments or questions, EMAIL Warner Todd Huston: igcolonel .at. hotmail.com"The only end of writing is to enable the reader better to enjoy life, or better to endure it." --Samuel Johnson

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