One Scenario Which Will Definitely Not Happen

As the election race closes to less than forty hours before Election Day, all kinds of stories have come out.  ‘Inside’ stories about Romney preparing for a loss, Obama planning to move to Hawaii next year because he knows he’s done, so-called experts and gurus who promise perfect knowledge of what will happen … there’s no shortage of noise and media flatulence.  While I have my own ideas about what will happen, I don’t pretend to know it for a fact, and frankly I don’t respect anyone who pretend that they have such knowledge.  However the voters think, however early voting went, the race itself will be decided Tuesday by the actual votes. That’s because opinion polls are not actual votes, and however important early voting is, no one has ever had so commanding a lead in early voting that the Election Day was not necessary.   Nate Silver is lying to you, and so is Karl Rove.  It’s what they are paid to do, actually, but you should keep in mind that spin is pervasive in the media, including a lot of people pretending they are objective reporters.  The race could be razor-close, it could be decisive, and it’s even possible that President Obama could win the Popular Vote but lose the Electoral Vote, as Gore did in 2000.  But I have not been able to work out a way for Mitt Romney to win the Popular Vote without also winning the Electoral Vote.

Here’s how that works out:

Obama has a commanding lead by all accounts in polls in five states (54%+ in New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Washington).  Obama also won handily in D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, Rhode Island, Maryland, Delaware, and Maine, but there are no polls in the last two weeks for those states.  If you take the poll support where known (use those RCP average that get such press), and apply 2008 numbers for states without polls, when you plug it all in, Barack Obama ends up leading Romney 48.9% to 46.6%.

First, notice that no national poll, well no serious poll by professionals, give Romney support numbers that low nationally.  And Obama is below those numbers in serious national polls.  I don’t think those state polls are kosher, but for here they create a problem for anyone saying Romney would win the PV but lose the EV, because the only way to create that condition would be to add votes for Romney in battleground states … or create ridiculous scenarios, like saying he takes 90% in Texas and 48% in California.

When you add in the necessary votes to give Romney the PV lead, it always creates a condition where he wins the EV as well.  The closest scenario I could find, allowed the 3rd party percentages for each state to be copied from 2008, Obama was allowed the poll support and Romney the rest, and I end up with Romney 49.5%, Obama 49.0%, and Romney wins the EV 318-220.  I’m not saying that’s how it ends up, but if Romney wins the Popular Vote this year, he wins the Electoral College as well.

The Only Poll Numbers You Need To See Today
Pew: MSNBC's Bias Far Worse Than Fox
  • Commander_Chico_Cognoscente

    Good analysis again.

    Chico predicts shenanigans by both sides, especially in Ohio, followed by a disputed result, a Constitutional crisis, gunfire, and civil war.

    • EricSteel

      Chico, there is still time. Do you still think Obama is going to drop Biden for Hilary?

      • Commander_Chico_Cognoscente

        Did I say that?

        I guess I also predicted Rubio as running mate. That fool Romney would be five points ahead now if he’d gone with Marco.

        Of course, neither presidential candidate is a mastermind.

    • Rdmurphy42

      Both sides? Chico …

      You just can’t help yourself can you?

  • kaypipee

    I am from India and my comment does not matter much; however, on the face of it, it appears that Obama is likely to have edge over Mitt Romney and in all probabilities he is going to be the next President of USA. Though some of his policies appear to be anti-Indian, I feel what he has been advocating for USA are good for ‘Mango’ [what is referred to as common ] people of USA.

    • Commander_Chico_Cognoscente

      Hey, we’re not interested in your political analysis, but can you tell me where’s the best club or pub to pick up hot cougars / divorcees in Mumbai or elsewhere in India? I’ve got to go there on biz early next year.

    • retired.military

      Pay no attention to Chico. He is an Ass. I would say donkey but I would be repeating myself. Obama’s policies suck for the US.

      • Commander_Chico_Cognoscente

        Damn right you capitalize Ass when you refer to Chico. Proper respect, wot.

    • “I feel what he has been advocating for USA are good for ‘Mango’ [what is referred to as common ] people of USA.”

      Chico, I don’t know I’d take party advice from this guy. Seems to me he’s badly into S&M.

      • Commander_Chico_Cognoscente

        Hmmmmm . . . . aren’t kinksters the best to get party advice from?

        • Depends on the kink. What’s fun for a sadist might not be your cup of tea, so to speak…

          • Commander_Chico_Cognoscente

            Yeah but he would know where to find submissive women.

          • Only for some things. “You aren’t going to beat me? Screw this – I’m out of here!”

          • Commander_Chico_Cognoscente

            Italian saying: “The hottest place in hell is reserved for those who say no to a woman’s desire.”

          • Well, if that’s your kink more power to ya. Some things you only need to try once to realize it’s not for you…

    • jim_m

      Sadly, you really do not have a good understanding of things in the USA. obama’s policies are not good for the common man, unless you define that good as being in poverty and dependent upon the government for your subsistence, in which case obama is probably the best president ever by those standards.

  • retired.military

    Romney 54 Obama 46 Romney 320- 218 Obama will be much closer than 49 49

  • Rick

    It’s true that opinion polls are just that, opinion polls. However, within a certain margin for error, they’ve been pretty reliable in past years. So if polling averages suggest Obama is likely to win, that’s probably what’s going to happen. And forget Nate Silver, his prediction for an Obama win is actually much more conservative than others (Princeton Univ has it at 99.9% now). But because he’s with the NY Times he gets more coverage.

    • jim_m

      Crappy polls with flawed underlying demographics mean that pooling averages are filed with garbage data. When you put polls with D+8 and D+11 demos into an average you get something extremely misleading.

      Does anyone honestly believe that dems are going to out poll the republicans by 11% when we see obama struggling to get 2000 people to a rally and Romney getting 30,000? Polling does not reflect reality when it is skewed like that. The answer is that we don’t really know what is going to happen because the polling is so poor. Either it will be a squeaker for either candidate or Romney will blow obama out. I don’t hear anyone predicting an obama landslide other than idiots like Carl.

      • “Does anyone honestly believe that dems are going to out poll the
        republicans by 11% when we see obama struggling to get 2000 people to a
        rally and Romney getting 30,000?”

        It’s not a case where reality is important – what’s important is the PERCEPTION. It’s a tie because the pollsters say it’s a tie, that’s all the media (who, having created the first Celebrity President in Obama, doesn’t want to see their creation dismantled…) really cares about.

        But remember what happened with Chik-Fil-A. I think people are quite tired of being told what to think and do lest their ‘betters’ think ill of them, and like in 2010 there’s going to be a massive pushback…

        • jim_m

          Agreed. I think that the media has fallen into a Pauline Kael group think mentality where they are incapable of even polling in a way that reflects the mood of the country.

          They really believe that a D+11 sample reflects the actual partisan split in this nation despite 2010 and despite what we see with the crowds. The left has so effectively shut down political discourse that conservatives simply do not voice their opinions in mixed company so the leftists just don’t see how many conservatives there are.

          Never having anyone object to their hostile and frequently vulgar political comments in public or in the workplace, the leftists assume that conservatives must therefore only exist in tiny numbers.

  • yetanotherjohn

    Actually, I think that the “Romney wins the PV and loses the EV” is relatively straight forward. Imagine a 50.1% Romney vs 49.9% Obama popular vote. More enthusiastic deep red state voters and less enthusiastic deep blue state voters could easily be the difference. But Ohio doesn’t mirror the national result and tilts to Obama. Obama ekes out a 271 to 267 EV win, but loses the PV.


      Interesting report of a Pennsylvania rally for Obama – and yet, his stars aren’t drawing the same crowds and his ‘enthusiastic support’ from 2008 doesn’t seem to be there.

      It’s all about who actually shows up. Polls are essentially meaningless at this point – especially with the oversampling of Democrats and an attempt to use 2008 turnout models as a standard baseline for Democratic voting.

      Frankly, Obama’s disappointed a hell of a lot of people who were hoping he’d be a good choice, and voting for him again won’t be an option regardless of their party alignment.

      I’m starting to think that a lot of folks otherwise uninterested in politics and how our leadership affects their lives have gotten a good solid look at the Progressive abyss – and we’re seeing a massive revulsion. The media doesn’t want to admit it, preferring their standard line that everything would be wonderful if Obama could just do everything he wanted – but the reality is far different from the hype of Hope and Change, and the media no longer controls and shapes public opinion like they did.

      We elected a celebrity candidate in 2008. That’s not going to happen again, I think…

  • Brian_R_Allen

    …. it’s even possible that Zero appear to win the Popular Vote and lose the Electoral Vote, as, in 2000, Gore was made to appear to have done ….

    Given that the “Democratic” potty-activist owners operators and controllers of the elections machinery already have all of the means at their disposal to by at least 10% bump the appearance of votes cast for their every candidate, the chance Zero might appear to have won anything beyond his notice to quit our 1600 Pennsylvania public housing would usually be around 100%.

    But not this year when we are about to win by margins that will preclude even “Democratic” potty cheating!

    Think in the range of President-elect Romney, +/-350; Zero, +/-188.

    Thank God.

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