The Only Poll Numbers You Need To See Today

As pointed out by Joel Pollak at Big Government, the latest CNN national poll of likely voters has some very good news for those of you following poll fundamentals, as opposed to topline percentages. Mitt Romney is has a commanding 22% lead among Independents. This is a post-Hurricane Sandy poll, so any talk of a big Obama bounce among Independents appears to be wishful thinking on the part of the Obama camp.

The following shows the voting choice for the various party affiliations:

Total 49%
Democrat 93%
Independent 37%
Republican 1%

Total 49%
Democrat 5%
Independent 59%
Republican 99%

Both Romney and Obama have locked up their core (though Romney has a slight advantage in party defection), but the difference in Independents is striking.

Of course the only way a 49% – 49% tie makes sense is if the sample is heavily weighted (D +11) toward Democrats. If you’ve been following the polls that should hardly be news to you.

Polls are now past the point of mattering. The CNN poll finds only 4% of voters still undecided. Polls aren’t going to influence them. The only poll the matters occurs tomorrow. Vote early, then remind at least one other person to vote. There’s no excuse to not vote…

Election Prediction Thread
One Scenario Which Will Definitely Not Happen
  • Commander_Chico_Cognoscente

    Polls are meaningless, but national polls are especially meaningless.

    • The only poll that’s mattering is Nov. 6th – and who actually shows up.

      Based on who’s showing up and the relative crowd sizes for the two candidates, I’m thinking it’s going to be Romney by a much larger margin than the pollsters are expecting.

      • Irish_Mist

        “The only polls that matter….” The last gasp of the hopeless.

    • So all the national polls showing Romney ahead are wrong, and all the small-sample, no-track-record state polls that show Obama winning are right?

      That about the size of it?

      • Commander_Chico_Cognoscente

        You are aware of the Electoral College?

        You can win the Electoral College even though you lose the popular vote 40-60 or more.

        • jim_m

          I would categorize your answer as non-responsive.

        • I second jim m — Chico is deflecting, and doing poorly at it.

          • Irish_Mist

            Of course Chico is wrong. Because he’s right!!! Sheesh.

        • retired.military


          You are technically correct but the odds are so far out there you would win the lottery much easier than that happening.

  • Sky__Captain

    And again we see that CNN, for one, is completely ignoring November 2010.

    This does have the potential to be a blowout of monumental proportions given the independent gap of 22% in the CNN poll.

  • Vagabond661

    If the lines at Chik-Fil-A on August 1st were any indication of passion this election season, the Left won’t know what hit them.

    • they’ll know, they just won’t admit they know.

      • Irish_Mist

        There you go. The Chik-Fil-A pole!!!! That’s got to be one of the funniest (and most pathetic) last lifelines I’ve ever heard. Geez the desperation
        of the old white man Party. Ha!

        • Here we see a fine example of an 0bama voter:

          There you go. The Chik-Fil-A pole[sic]!!!! That’s got to be one of the funniest (and most pathetic) last lifelines[sic] I’ve ever heard. Geez the desperation

          of the old white man Party. Ha!

          Poor grammar, worse spelling and punctuation, and recitation of facts not in evidence. No doubt a product of the public schools.

  • jim_m

    I think we have an accurate take on the polls here.

  • Hmmm.

    Joe Biden in Richmond with John Cougar Mellenkamp and OFA volunteers can’t give away tickets.


    I was at an afternoon craft beer festival in downtown Richmond,
    Virginia this afternoon, just the sort of event you would imagine to
    find plenty of Obamaroids.At the event i was approached by an attractive
    young OFA volunteer handing out tickets for a frree John Cougar
    Mellencamp concert hosted by Mr. and Dr Biden in Richmond tomorrow
    night(election eve) in Richmond. The response was less than enthused,
    dozens and dozens of beer festers were offered free tickets and in all
    but a few exceptions the free offer was declined, over and over again,
    the beer fest participants declined the offer.

    Anecdotal stories aren’t proof, of course – but the underwhelming enthusiasm seems to be rampant this year among the Dems.

  • I am certain of this one, God will give us the victory, unbeknowing to the commies on the left of right. About time, we are voting for love of country not revenge. Thank God for Romney/Ryan.