HomeElectionsOPEN THREAD and the Iowa Caucus OPEN THREAD and the Iowa Caucus Scalia February 1, 2016 Elections 96 Comments It’s time to see whether Cruz’s ground game is able to surpass The Donald’s populism and whether Clinton is able to fend off a spirited challenge from Sanders. This is also an open thread. "The [Catholic] faith is alive and well in the Philippines" Amateur Hour @ FOXNEWS.COM (Again) Share this:FacebookTwitterRedditEmailMoreLinkedInPinterestPrintTumblrPocketGoogle Related Posts Life in Florida XXII North Carolina and Indiana — By the Numbers Jeb Bush Calls Southerners and the Confederate Flag ‘Racist’ About The Author Scalia Just an occasional poster looking to help give Wizbang a more conservative flavor. Paul Hooson Hillary has proven herself to be very vulnerable to only lead by a slim margin at this point. On the other hand, Cruz used 12,000 volunteers to well organize compared to Trump who apparently fell short because of a top heavy and heavy handed personality cult as opposed to a true campaign effort. yetanotherjohn As Scalia said, is it Trump populism motivation enough to get people to the caucus on their own or Cruz classic, Iowa retail politics organization to get them there that works? The real game is within each caucus. They divide up in groups and then see which groups have enough to send a delegate up to the next level. That is when each precinct organization comes into play to convince Carson or whomever supporters to join them because Carson doesn’t have enough for a delegate in that particular room. Will it be anyone but Trump to grab the spare votes, anyone but Cruz, organized horsetrading (say between Rubio and Carson) that they will urge support of the other depending on who has the most initial votes. It is in this sort of horse trading a rabble of first time caucus goers is lest effective vs organization. Commander_Chico Sounds like a summer camp game. yetanotherjohn The democratic caucus rules are worse. Commander_Chico The whole thing is foolish. Closed or open primary better yetanotherjohn Actually, I think instant run off voting would be better than a caucus. You could also make an argument it would be better than a primary, especially if the results traveled with the field so when candidate X drops out later, if the voter who voted for candidate X second choice was for candidate Y, then the previous states results get adjusted to show an increase for candidate Y. That would mean the voter’s choice would travel all the way to the convention, even if the first half dozen candidates the voter preferred dropped out. This would also let you vote for the candidate you really prefer (e.g. Fiorina) but don’t vote for them because you don’t want to waste your vote on a candidate who isn’t likely to go the distance. When they do eventually drop out, your second choice comes into play. Of course that is one of the reasons why instant run off voting isn’t used, it puts more power in the hands of the people and less in the hands of the establishment. Commander_Chico Ireland uses instant runoff for Dáil elections yetanotherjohn Best arguments I’ve heard against instant run-off elections center on their complexity. Both in administering the vote (not insurmountable) and in explaining it to voters (a more interesting issue). yetanotherjohn O’Malley suspends his campaign. Average age of democratic presidential contenders rises to 71. JLawson Remarkable how the ‘party of diversity’ has become the party of “Get off my damn lawn!” Anniegjorden 6❝my neighbor’s mate is getting 98$. HOURLY. on the internet❞….A few days ago new McLaren F1 subsequent after earning 18,512$,,,this was my previous month’s paycheck ,and-a little over, 17k$ Last month ..3-5 h/r of work a day ..with extra open doors & weekly. paychecks.. it’s realy the easiest work I have ever Do.. I Joined This 7 months ago and now making over 87$, p/h.Learn More right Here➤➤➤➤➤ http://GlobalSuperEmploymentVacanciesReportsPower/GetPaid/98$hourly… .❦,❦,❦,❦,❦,❦,❦,❦,❦,❦,❦,❦,❦,❦,❦,❦,❦,❦,❦,❦,❦,❦,❦,❦,❦,❦,❦,❦,❦,❦,❦,❦,❦,❦,❦,❦.❦,❦vhw……. yetanotherjohn #DemocratsOhSoWhiteAndOld jim_m Cruz wins. Rubio finishes right behind Trump in 3rd. As I said, Trump had little invested in on the ground operations. This will be between Cruz and Rubio from here on out. The remaining 25% of the vote that went to the scattered losers of Iowa will be dispersed between Cruz and Rubio. jim_m YES!!!! Huckabee drops out!!! Paul Hooson Huckabee is a very decent man, but just could not repeat his past success, where other candidates now compete for his same voters. Scalia The good money was on Cruz due to his commitment to the ground game. Although I would have been surprised with a Trump victory, the Iowa polls and the rabidness of many of his followers gave me considerable concern. On to New Hampshire! Paul Hooson You called it quite well, Scott Elliot over at Election Projection should call on you. jim_m I didn’t call it. It was over when I posted that. Trump cannot be the favorite to win the nomination. When you start taking second choices into account he falls way behind Cruz and Rubio. If it were him vs either of the other two he would still be under 30% and they would be up at 70%. He has focused on publicity and not on organization. There is 25% of the vote that will now start to swiftly reallocate itself to either Cruz or Rubio. Trump will likely see his prospects fade quickly. Paul Hooson I didn’t look at the timeline, but I agreed with your opinions. Commander_Chico Canadian Cruz and Hillary continue bad record of Iowa picking nominees. Now that people can vote instead of phony caucus system, Trump will rise. Canadian Cruz and Rubio will get crushed in NH. Trump Kasich and Jeb there. Paul Hooson You’re correct. Iowa seldom chooses the eventual winner, otherwise we would have President Huckabee or Santorum by now…Iowa’s Republican social conservative Republicans and Iowa’s liberal Democrats usually pick the wrong candidates it seems… Jwb10001 President Obama begs to differ, Iowa does indeed pick nominees and presidents. Rodney G. Graves Cruz for the win. Trump for the place. Rubio for the show. Jwb10001 Chico finally got something right when he said the polls don’t accurately reflect Trump, he goes from final poll up 7 to losing by 4 I guess that’s 11% polling support that evaporated when the choice became real. Thank God. Hopefully the field will thin and the 60% that view Trump negatively will consolidate to knock his lame ass out of the race. Commander_Chico The past victories of Huckabee and Santorum were a surprise too. Let’s see when people can freely vote. Rubio’s vote in Iowa suspicious. Rodney G. Graves Ha, ha! Jwb10001 How predictable, the progressive suspects some foul play since his boy lost. By the way Trump under performed his pre vote polling by 11 points. Paper tiger who’s negatives are catching up to him. Rodney G. Graves Particularly in this case that should be progtard. Rodney G. Graves Even a blind pig finds the odd acorn. Jwb10001 Damning with faint praise yetanotherjohn On to New Hampshire. What was once one of the most crowded fields I could ever remember on the GOP side has resolved to three. Much to my surprise from this time last year, not one is a governor. We have the Trump populism campaign, arguably the most conservative of the field and certainly the most conservative left standing Cruz and the establishment latest favorite since Jeb is flamed out. I think the establishment wanted Jeb, can live with Rubio, don’t like Trump but fear Cruz. So what are the results from New Hampshire going to look like? Ground game means a lot less in NH with a primary vs a caucus. The pre-Iowa polls have Trump stomping on the field, but Kasich, Jeb, Rubio and Cruz are +/- 1 point in RCP avg and all four about 1/3 of Trump. Do we get Trump to win and the rest pick up table scraps? Does the party start to unify behind Cruz. Is NH going to elevate one of the establishment players? All in all, I’m pleased with tonight’s results. If Cruz can continue this, I think he can take everything, including November. A conservative republican president with a GOP house and senate should make for a better nation. If the dems lose the White House, they will perhaps start to realize what damage Obama has done to the country as they recognize what Obama has done to his party with the loss of down stream office holders.. Scalia At least it will be interesting for the time being (instead of what some were describing as a runaway Trump-train). However, the fact that since 1972, only three non-incumbent candidates who have won Iowa have gone on to win the presidency gives me considerable pause. Par4Course Endorsements from the NY Times and the Des Moines Register didn’t get John Katich very far, and it sure looks like Jeb, Chris and most of the rest of the GOP field are toast. Even Dr. Carson can’t be happy with less than 10% of the vote in a relatively religious state where he was doing well a couple months age. From this point on, it’s likely a 3-way race. Commander_Chico New Hampshire, SC different places. They don’t care about Iowa Jwb10001 Why would anyone vote for a guy who’s negatives are off the charts bad, he simply can not win a general election period. retired military Yet plenty of folks are voting for Hillary. jim_m For most of the left her criminal actions are a plus, and endangering the lives of Americans, putting the national security at risk and aiding our enemies (in a way that is damned near treason) make her a hero. Par4Course Bottom line from the Hawkeye Cauci: Cruz gets 8 Iowa delegates; Trump and Marco each get 7. Marco should be the happiest in terms of out-performing the polls and showing strong momentum. The first voting will be next Tuesday in New Hampshire, the 41st most populous state. JWH I’m not surprised that Ted Cruz pulled this off. New Hampshire’s going to be a different animal, though. Primaries don’t require voters to spend hours horse-trading with their neighbors. Still, this is political gravity exerting its will on Trump. But if he’s Wicked enough, the Donald can pull through. Jwb10001 So what do we get from Trump now? Will he continue to be rude and obnoxious or will he soften his approach? I think either opens him up to further erosion of support. Hopefully at some point he will have to do something other than mouth off, insult and name call, at that point a sufficient number of people should figure out that his ego out weighs his intellect by a factor 10 or more. JWH I bet that he’s going to continue to be rude and obnoxious. That’s his brand. It appeals to voters who are mad as hell at the GOP establishment and aren’t going to take it anymore. That said, Trump would be smart to dial back on the “I’m the winner and these guys are losers” rhetoric. Confidence sells well, but only if you can deliver … and overconfidence is bad expectations management. That’s why Trump’s second place reads as a loss, but Rubio’s third-place showing reads as a victory. Jwb10001 I think he has a clear ceiling to his support that maxes around 30% in the GOP and no more than that in the general depending on who’s running against him. If the others left in the race can grow a set and start to challenge him on substance I think he self destructs. Example, why doesn’t someone ask him specifically how he intends to “take” Iraq’s oil? How does specifically get Mexico to pay to build a border wall? Has anyone asked him what kind of judges he would place on the federal bench? Who would he look to for advice on national security and foreign affairs (can you imagine any serious people wanting to be a part of his administration?) He needs to be pressed on his positions, I don’t think he actually has any but that’s just me. By the way all of them need to step up and answer these questions, I suspect however many of them have better answers than Trump (basically I don’t think he has any.) As far as Clinton is concerned she’s a walking talking scandal, she will spend all her time trying to avoid being impeached should we be so unfortunate to elect her president. JWH For most of this campaign, the other GOP candidates have been afraid of pushing Trump too hard, for fear that the “mad as hell” faction would turn against them. Thirty percent isn’t a majority, but it’s a pretty large support base in a primary with seventeen bezillion candidates. But after Iowa and New Hampshire, I think we’ll have a better idea of how high Trump’s support really goes .. Jwb10001 Exactly that’s why I say the rest of them need to grow a pair and start going directly at Trump. It actually should be very easy to get him twisted up in his shorts he can’t possibly keep track of all his various positions and would be very hard pressed to defend some of the idiotic positions he’s taken ie. taking Iraq’s oil. I suspect a couple of them are starting to feel a little more emboldened after yesterday so hopefully they can start to dispense with Trump. The media will continue to prop him up for the entertainment value but eventually he has to fall. I suspect the liberal leaning media wants him as he may be the only hope Hillary has, assuming she can actually get the nomination. JWH I don’t know about “growing a pair,” but if I were running against Trump, I would consider needling him a little bit (or maybe a lot) at the next debate to see if I could get him to blow up. Trump’s temper is an asset with his hardcore supporters, but it’s a liability with the rest of the electorate. I don’t like Ted Cruz, but I respect his organizational acumen. He’s also been directed his (carefully planned) spontaneous angry outbursts at the “mainstream media” (always a popular punching bag for the GOP) or at Washington rather than at other candidates. Jwb10001 If they were smart they would challenge him every time he makes some stupid claim and demand he back it up, explain the details not just “I’ll make a deal” BS. If the media starts to smell blood they will also turn on him, it’s good business to knock down self proclaimed “winners” JWH Disagree there. If a candidate attacks and needles Trump at the right moments, he’ll look like Little Mac taking on Mike Tyson. Do it all the time, and he’ll look like a yapping chihuahua Commander_Chico Trump’s gonna go 3rd party if he loses a rigged process. Jwb10001 Good that’s exactly what he should do, he can called it the “it’s all about me” party. He’ll take enough votes from Hillary to assure a republican win. Commander_Chico Right. He will win. Canadian Cruz and Hillary will not excite turnout. Jwb10001 Sure what ever you say. By the way what does he actually stand for again? Well I mean what does he stand for today? You know what never mind I know what he stands for THE DONALD. Long live the oligarchy! Rodney G. Graves Just like he won Iowa. jim_m Yeah, because Cruz really failed to get turnout in IA. Don’t believe your lying eyes!!! Believe the bullshit that Chico tells you! Jwb10001 New national poll out has Trump down to 25% with his talent for under performing that should put his actual support at around 14%. Yes sir Trump he’s a winner. Palin for sec of interior! jim_m Sanders campaign crying fraud. Now that’s funny. Just because Hillary won 6 straight undocumented coin tosses for extra delegates (a likelihood of 1.56%) and just because there may be 90 precincts who’s votes went missing. We all know that vote fraud never, ever happens. Bruce assures us that this is true. Besides, we all know from the left that they never commit vote fraud. They promise. Scalia Yeah, six straight coin tosses in her favor. Just luck, I guess…. 😉 JWH If Hillary were on record as favoring torture … ahem … “enhanced interrogation techniques,” I could make a great joke right now. Scalia Go ahead, tell it anyway. 🙂 JWH Some variant on this old chestnut, perhaps: http://jokes.cc.com/funny-news—politics/sl8ljq/the-fbi–cia–lapd–and-some-rabbits Commander_Chico Just like Rubio outperforming his polls by 10% and Carson underperforming. Rigging on both. Why does Establishment want Hillary and Rubio so much? jim_m Dumbass, did you read? There are specific allegations of fraud. Not nebulous whining. Jwb10001 What a freaking cry baby, oh my guy lost, the establishment cheated… what bull shit. Now your boy is tweeting out that he knew he couldn’t win so he didn’t spend much, totally untrue he spent 3.2 million just on advertising which is 30% of the 10Million he loaned his campaign. Now that he’s been shown to be a loser the rest of the field is going to force him to stake out positions which will be an absolute riot. Tell me who would your boy put on the supreme court? Who would be foolish enough to be defense secretary, secretary of state? What happens when his defense secretary tells him it’s a bad idea to invade Iraq and take their oil? By the way your new love interest Palin was so bad last night she even offended Trump supporters which I would have though almost impossible. But your girl was up to the challenge. Commander_Chico I always wanted to bang Palin, just did not want her close to nuke codes. Jwb10001 Good to know you still let your little head do all your thinking Commander_Chico Yes I am a man and find Palin sexy. Jwb10001 No you’re a boy that thinks men want to hear about your sexual preferences. Jwb10001 Hey Chico here’s your guy: I will be talking about my wonderful experience in Iowa and the simultaneous unfair treatment by the media-later in New Hampshire The mean old media is being unfair. He’s running the most substance free campaign I’ve ever seen, It’s all name calling, bad mouthing and whining nothing there but hot air and ego. Brucehenry Somebody on NPR (and I’m sure he’s not the only one) said today of Trump’s second-place finish “The ego has landed.” Jwb10001 How many were killed? Rodney G. Graves NHI formwiz For a guy with no grund game and no spending, The Donald did OK, not great, but it was OK. Rubio seems to be the Whigs’ choice, although he seems to have picked up some of the Anybody But Ted vote, as did Carson and Rand (15% for the pair of them ain’t bad). One reason why may be the last-minute dirty tricks by the Cruzzers. The mailer was just the beginning. http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/02/breaking-carson-accuses-cruz-camp-of-foul-play-at-iowa-caucuses/ http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/02/disgusting-cruz-camp-smearing-donald-trump-at-iowa-caucus-sites/ Jwb10001 Donald spend 3.2 million on advertising alone fully 30% of the 10 million he loaned his campaign it is not true to suggest there was no spending. Jwb10001 Some additional information about Trump and his campaign funding putting the lie to his claim that he’s funding his campaign with his own money: “At the start of his campaign, he loaned his political operation $1.8 million. As of Oct. 1, he had given his campaign an additional $104,829.27 — but he had also received $3.9 million from donors, which accounted for the vast majority of the $5.8 million his campaign had taken in by then. His campaign website features a prominent “donate” button on its homepage. Trump has spent $5.4 million, and interestingly, about one-quarter of his spending has gone to Trump-owned entities (mainly his private jet company).” Is there anything about this guy that doesn’t fall apart once to look past the 1 line slogans that dominate his campaign? JWH Rand Paul is out. Jwb10001 Trump is now whining that Cruz stole the election, what’s the word for this sort of behavior, oh cry baby, whiner. “Ted Cruz didn’t win Iowa, he stole it. That is why all of the polls were so wrong and why he got far more votes than anticipated. Bad!” This of course will feed the tumpster’s and continue to let Trump dodge answering questions about his “positions” and “solutions for America.” Hey Donald how about tweeting out how you plan to take Iraq’s oil, or specifically how a “winner” plans to Make America Great Again” Do tell us how great it is for the powerful to use the government to steal property from the little people so the big shots can get more money. Trump LOSER. jim_m Trump lost because he had no organization. In some of the caucuses he didn’t have anyone to stand up and speak for him. He was effectively a no show and lost votes accordingly. Many people had suggested this would happen and it did. Chico is just upset that his cult of personality hero didn’t win. Jwb10001 See I think Chico is a shallow little man that thinks he’s being a cool non conformist by supporting people like Trump. If he seriously supports Trump then he’s completely unprincipled and all his past statements should be completely disregarded and nothing more than verbal diarrhea. Jwb10001 Got some more from the Blowhard Chickehawk today: Donald Trump returned to form on the campaign trail after finishing second in the Iowa caucuses, telling supporters in New Hampshire that he would “beat the s–t out of” anyone who attacked the country if he were in the White House. Hey Chico how does the Head Chickenhawk In Charge manage this? I know he’ll make a deal. You know who this sounds like to me, GWB. Commander_Chico He said he was sick of the USA being world police too. Jwb10001 He said HE WOULD KICK THE SHIT OUT OF ANYONE THAT ATTACKED THE US. Now you say he’ll make Russia do it? How on earth can you square that? Just like he’ll make the Mexican government build a wall on the southern boarder. This guy makes no sense, he’s going to kick the shit out of anyone that attacks us using the Russians wow just wow. Give up dude the guy makes no sense you trying to line up all this bull shit makes you look dumb. Palin for Interior Sec BABY! Commander_Chico So if we are attacked we should kick the shit out of them. Neocons want to fight people who have not attacked us. Big diff. “We’ve become the policemen to the entire world,” he said. “We take care of the world. They pay us peanuts.” Trump said under him, the U.S. would get along better with Russia and other countries. “We can use them to knock out ISIS with us so that maybe we don’t always have to pay for it,” he said. Jwb10001 Oh good so now we have you supporting invading other countries, good. Now what about this talk of taking Iraq’s oil who’s going to do that for us or is that ok too so long as your butt buddy Trump does it? Edit: and please no more with the neo cons are worse. That’s not going to fly, defend your guys goofy positions with out making lame comparisons. Commander_Chico Who is your guy? You and der Sturmbannführer are too faggoty to declare your choice. jim_m Why is it necessary for others to declare their preference when the problem is that you cannot defend your own position with anything resembling a coherent argument? Jwb10001 Oh another I got nothing reply from Chico. We’re talking about your love interest. I don’t have a guy at this point. I’d like to know more. See that’s what reasonable do they try to understand what these guys are all about unlike you falling for an ego with a Twitter account. Brucehenry Killin’ it again dude Jwb10001 Pretty easy given how much non sense stubby fingers produces every day. JWH Rick Santorum is out. jim_m He was in? JWH Yes. He was polling just ahead of Jim Gilmore and just behind a piece of lint that fell out of Ted Cruz’s pocket. Jwb10001 By this time next week we should be down to 3 or 4 candidates and we’ll have a much better idea of the level of support each of them actually has. JWH I’d peg it at 6-7 candidates, with 2-3 of them the definitive top tier. I figure Kasich and Christie will hang on until after the Nevada primary, and Jeb’s not going to throw in the towel until after Super Tuesday. I have no bloody idea what Carson is doing, and I don’t think Carson does, either. Jwb10001 I guess 3 to 4 is a bit optimistic, unless of course candidates like Kasich, Christie, Carson and Bush get blown out. I think you’re right about Carson, he’s in over his head from the sense that he’s playing a rough game with ruthless people. JWH The “support” is kind of interesting. I saw a story (don’t remember where) that reviewed some of the polls of Trump and Cruz supporters. Turns out that Marco Rubio’s the second choice of a good chunk of both groups of supporters. Jwb10001 Not surprising to me, but I think it’s pretty safe to say Cruz and Trump aren’t going anywhere anytime soon. So that may not really benefit Rubio much. If however Bush or Christie or Kasich or all/some of them don’t survive much past NH Rubio might see a pretty dramatic up swing in support. Jwb10001 Oh boy, today we have Mr. Stubby Fingers Blowhard claiming to pack 12,000 people into a half full 10,000 (including standing room) capacity venue. The guy is losing it big time. Looks like Palin might not be Sec of the Interior after all.