Modern Bunk

voting-machine-a

The Presidential election of 2016 is over, even if millions of people seem to be in serious denial about that fact. An appalling example of this trend-to-tantrum is evident in the recount efforts in Wisconsin, Michigan, and to a much lesser degree Pennsylvania. A number of pablum excuses have been offered up to explain the recount demands, usually based on some assumption that any hacking can be discovered and ‘corrected’ by the recount, that recounts mean improving ballot validity, or that denying the recount is somehow proof that Trump is unethical. This article is written to address those canards.

Let me start with the stated reason for the recount demands – in laughable hypocrisy, the Clinton campaign has said they will “participate” in the recounts, even as they assure people that they are not disputing the election results, and are not the parties asking for the recounts in the first place.

Bunk.

Jill Stein, for example, only raised $3.5 million by the end of October for her campaign, yet by last Friday she found $5 million for the recount effort.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/11/25/jill-stein-raises-more-funds-for-recount-than-entire-presidential-campaign.html

There is no realistic way her supporters suddenly decided to become that generous. The obvious truth is that someone funded the recount through Stein, to hide the true purpose of the recount.

Let’s also look closer at the ‘hacker’ claim that was used to excuse demanding a recount. Speaking for former Senator Clinton, Jill Stein said that ‘hacking concerns’ were the reason for the recount demand, which claim does not begin to stand up to inspection.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/2016/11/28/jill-stein-cites-hacking-concerns-as-reason-for-recounts-not-election-outcome.html

Especially amusing to me is that even as she demands recounts, Ms. Stein admits she has no evidence to support her claims. She wants multiple states to do recounts just because she claims there was possible hacking, even though she has no evidence, experts agree the recounts won’t change the election results, and even though it wastes time and resources.

But let’s play along for a little bit. Let’s look at the three states where Stein wants recounts; Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. If someone was to hack the election in those three states, how would they do it?

It’s not like they show on TV. TV is there to tell you a story, not get into the hard facts of how something is done, especially illegal activities. Let’s skip the question of why someone would want to hack an election (besides the candidates) and look at the logistics.

The recount crowd insists that there is something wrong with those vote totals in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Unfortunately for them, their argument is classic circular fallacy – ‘we lost, so someone must have cheated’ . A lot of folks on the left seem to be claiming people’s votes were changed in the machine, so let’s start with the machines used. If the election was hacked, it’s a big point for them to hack the same kind of machines, since machines from different companies will use different operating codes and processes, meaning what works on one type won’t work somewhere else.

Hmm.

Pennsylvania uses the Sequoia AVC Advantage voting machine.

http://www.montcopa.org/1388/Voting-Machines

OK so far, let’s see what the next two states use.

Michigan uses the Automark ES&S M100.

http://www.michigan.gov/sos/0,4670,7-127-1633_8716_45458—,00.html

So already our hackers have to know coding for two different kinds of voting machines. On to Wisconsin.

Wisconsin does not use voting machines in all places, and the state uses six different kinds of machines – the Optech Command Central Eagle, the Sequoia Insight, the Automark ES&S M100, the Automark ES&S DS200, the Premier Accuvote US, and the Dominion Imagecast Evolution.

http://elections.wi.gov/elections-voting/voting-equipment/voting-equipment-use

So now our poor hackers are up to five different makers of voting machine, and eight different specific models, each with its own process code.

That pretty much kiboshes the idea that precinct-level machines were hacked. And here’s a fun piece of trivia: Sequoia, the company that makes all those voting machines used in Pennsylvania, also supplies voting machines to fifteen other states, but for some reason Stein and Clinton don’t want to recount votes in other states using Sequoia machines, probably because that would mean recounting states Clinton already won.

The next argument would be that someone must have hacked the votes at the state level. You just need three access points, right?

That doesn’t work either. Before each state certifies its results, they manually verify the precinct totals with the state tallies, so even if someone got in and changed the totals at the state level, they‘d have to fudge the reported numbers from the precincts … which would be caught when the manual review was done.

But this all becomes plain when you go all the way back to the argument made by those ‘computer scientists’, who claimed that the votes looked irregular when compared to the polling data. I went to Real Clear Politics and looked up the state polls. These are the state polls reported by RCP over the last month before the election.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/state/

I then counted just the most recent poll from each agency for a state. In all there were 204 ‘final’ polls reported for 37 contests. Here are the results for six states, three of which are the states for which Stein/Clinton want recounts, and three are for states Clinton won:

State A:
Trump poll averages 7.1 points below his election result
Clinton poll averages 2.2 points below her election result
Undecideds make up between 0% and 15% of poll results, average 6.7%

State B:
Trump poll averages 0.8 points below his election result
Clinton poll averages 7.3 points below her election result
Undecideds make up between 4% and 8% of poll results, average 6.3%

State C:
Trump poll averages 2.0 points below his election result
Clinton poll averages 2.4 points below her election result
Undecideds make up between 3% and 10% of poll results, average 5.8%

State D:
Trump poll averages 7.2 points below his election result
Clinton poll averages 5.1 points below her election result
Undecideds make up between 7% and 11% of poll results, average 8.7%

State E:
Trump poll averages 7.3 points below his election result
Clinton poll averages 0.7 points above her election result
Undecideds make up between 0% and 10% of poll results, average 6.5%

State F:
Trump poll averages 5.9 points below his election result
Clinton poll averages 0.2 points below her election result
Undecideds make up between 2% and 13% of poll results, average 5.0%

Note that in all six states, Trump outperformed his poll averages, and there was significant average undecided response to polls even at the end of the campaign. Note that in five of six states, Clinton also outperformed her poll averages. The data is consistent with two candidates with high unfavorability numbers whose supporters may not want to confirm support for the candidate. Note also that the vote to poll performance is consistent within standard margins of error used in polls, debunking the claim that the vote results were incompatible with the state polls. In fact, Trump’s performance against state polls was very consistent; in 204 polls Trump’s performance beat poll numbers by an average of 5.69 points, and Undecideds made up an average of 7.11% of all poll responses.

The noise about recounts is just more whining from Democrats and Socialists who cannot accept that they did, in fact, lose the election.

Finally Some Sensible Democrats
Everybody Knows BMD Is Impossible
  • Retired military

    a. Stein was given $160k an hour every hour for a day or 2. This has been documented.

    b. Stein’s recount has almost zero chance to change anything. A fact that has been stated by her team, CLinton’s team and anyone with a brain (even pver 50% DU commentators even think it is an impossibility)

    So what is Stein’s reasons?

    Follow the money

    Google Stein “sell donor list” recount

    Here is one link

    https://www.thestreet.com/story/13907690/1/what-jill-stein-gets-out-of-recounts-your-email-addresses-worth-millions.html

    And you will find out that the list of Donors, emails, amounts donated, credit card info etc is literally worth millions when resold to people like the DNC, future political campaigns, special causes (PETA, etc). and others.

    That is millions that most likely will go directly into Stein’s pocket rather than a campaign slush fund (which for the most part is in to Stein’s pocket).
    so there you go. Follow the money.

    • stan25

      As of this posting, the recount in Wisconsin only got the Clinton campaign one lousy stinking vote. That is a far cry from the 25k that she needs to overturn the current count. Unless they find some dimpled or pregnant chads, there will only be maybe 100 more.

  • yetanotherjohn

    I think most of the recount people are driven by denial. They don’t like the result, so they grasp at anything that lets them live in a world that reality might not be as it is. I say let the left rage against the voting machine and waste their money. On the other hand, if they really want to see what rage is, try overturning the result.

  • Scalia

    I like what one commenter said:

    The Democrats haven’t been this angry since the Republicans took their slaves away.

    • Brett Buck

      That was Rob Schneider, and it was brilliant!

  • jim_m

    Interesting comment on the news this evening, that the purpose is not to overturn the election results but rather by slow walking the recount process to take it beyond Dec 19th and thereby cast doubt upon the electoral college vote.

    Current estimates of the Wisconsin recount are that it will take Dane county (where the people’s republic of Madison resides) will take beyond Dec 20 to complete the recount. The GOP will be required to go to court to either force them to expedite the recount or otherwise abandon it. The only other choice is to disenfranchise all of Wisconsin, but then the dems were never concerned about disenfranchisement. They would gladly disenfranchise 100% of US voters if they thought they could get away with it.

  • pennywit

    Trump won, and rather decisively, I think. If anybody merits a recount, I could see (maybe) Gary Johnson or the Libertarian Party organization mounting a large-scale recount to try to get to 5 percent. Other than that … this is a poor use of time and money.

    • pennywit

      Same goes for Jill Stein. As I recall, 5 percent in the vote is the threshold to qualify for federal election funding in the next election. That’s something worth recounting for, IMO.