Let’s Play “Who’s the Idiot?”

Later tonight, we will find out whether Roy Moore or Doug Jones will be Alabama’s next Senator, filling the spot originally vacated by Jeff Sessions when he became Attorney General. But what’s interesting to me, is how far apart the polls are on the race.

Here is a summary of major polls from the past week:

Emerson: Moore 53, Jones 44 (Moore + 9)
FOX News: Jones 50, Moore 40 (Jones +10)
WBRC/Strategy Research: Moore, 50, Jones 43 (Moore +7)
Monmouth: Jones 46, Moore 46 (tie)

Earlier polls from the Washington Post and JMC Analytics also had Jones ahead.

What’s making the difference is methodology and weighting. FOX is relying heavily on cell phone polls, which reaches more people than Emerson’s landline-only polling. Then again, FOX is expecting more younger voters to show up than most other polls.

Someone’s going to look like an idiot. I’m looking forward to the clown autopsy after the election results are known.

Jones collected 671,151, or 50% of the vote
Moore collected 650,436, or 48% of the vote

There were 22,819 write-in votes, more than the margin between Jones and Moore.

In the end, both Emerson and FOX were wrong by far more than the standard margin of error.

The Problem With Praetorian Guards
Weekend Caption Contest™ Winners Week of December 8, 2017
  • jim_m

    My guess is Moore by a hair. I figure exit polling and phone polls are off as people are reluctant to speak their minds similarly to the way they were with Trump.

    • jim_m

      Oh, and if Moore wins, Franken stays in the Senate.

  • DJD60_TX

    43% of the vote in, Moore has 53.1% of the vote, Jones has 45.6%.

  • DJD60_TX

    51% in, Moore still leads 51.4% to 47.2%

  • DJD60_TX

    65% in, Moore leads 53% to 45%

  • DJD60_TX

    75% in, Moore leads 51% to 48% (21k vote lead)

  • DJD60_TX

    With 80% in, the race is tightening, Moore leads but only 49.9% to 48.6% (13k votes)

  • DJD60_TX

    85% in, now a very close race, Moore’s lead is 4,668 votes

  • DJD60_TX

    323 precincts to go, Moore now leads by 7,039 votes

  • DJD60_TX

    86% in, Moore’s lead is just 440 votes now

  • DJD60_TX

    87% in, Moore still ahead by 577 votes

  • DJD60_TX

    89% in, Jones now leads by 10,983 votes

  • DJD60_TX

    91% of the vote in, AL.com projects Jones will win, Jones leading by 6,113 votes

  • DJD60_TX

    92% in, Jones’ lead is now 8,306 votes

  • DJD60_TX

    CNN also calls the race for Jones

  • DJD60_TX

    143 precincts left to report, Jones leads by 9,786 votes (20k write-ins, for comparison). If this finishes close, a recount could be in the mix.

  • DJD60_TX

    82 precincts to go, Jones leads by 9,550 votes, outside the margin needed to prevent a runoff.

  • DJD60_TX

    This just in, 400 hundred thousand votes just showed up, marked for … Al Gore, left over from the 2000 election and marked “send to Florida”, never mind .

  • DJD60_TX

    39 precincts to go, Jones up by 9,339 votes

  • DJD60_TX

    99% of the vote in, Moore closes to within 0.7% of Jones, only hope he has is to force a recount.

    • Scalia

      Glad to see you posting regularly, DJ.

  • Jwb10001

    So deep red Al elected a dem liberal to the senate, does this really matter? If he wants to be reelected he will have to at least act like a moderate blue dog. If he doesn’t want to be reelected he can vote however he wants, that however will seal the Alabama dems fate for years to come. I don’t see this as the worst thing that could happen. Republicans can claim high moral ground on gropefest and Franken will have to execute his “resignation” Conyers and son will be out for good. I saw something this morning that makes perfect sense, if the republicans would ever do what they promise, voters wouldn’t have to search for outsider candidates like Moore.

    • jim_m

      It means he’s out in 2 years unless the GOPe tries to run another lap dog like Strange and they end up with another idiot like Moore.

      And it is true. If the GOPe would come through on their promises actually act on the principles they claim to have, then you won’t get Roy Moore.

      • Retired military

        actually 3. I believe his seat comes up in 2020. I could be wrong.

        As far as the GOPe coming through on their promises. LOL. Good luck with that. I doubt they will get the tax cuts through and McCuckold McConnell will cry about how hard it is to get 50 votes out of 51 when Reid got 60 out of 60 for Obamacare.
        https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/694f1f7aab602be5bcea89444342a275b2990b8f9a4abe53a47d63a51b45a22d.jpg

        • jim_m

          What’s the difference between the dems and the GOP? The dems will stick together to destroy this nation. The GOP won’t stick together to save it.

  • pennywit

    Looks like Monmouth came closest.

  • Retired military

    Well Mitch the Bitch McCuckold McConnell, the GOPe, David Robertson and the democrats (but then I repeat myself 4 times) got what they wanted.

    • pennywit

      A potted ficus would have been better than Moore, IMNSHO. And I could have lived with the potted ficus over Jones, too.

      • Retired military

        Well considering McCuckold abandoned him along with the GOPe which funded adds against him it is a wonder he did as good as he did.
        I put this loss squarely on the RINOs where it belongs. They wanted it, they got it.

  • Retired military

    Since we are playing “Who’s the idiot”

    Doctor mentioned in Clinton emails ref Haiti has been found to have committed suicide by stabbing himself in the chest

    http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/12/doctor-linked-haiti-mentioned-wikileaks-found-dead-stabbing-chest/

    Now I have heard of people cutting their wrists, throat, throwing themselves off bridges, buildings, shooting themself, locking themselves in a garage with the car running, suicide by cop and a host of other ways to kill themselves. This is the first time I have ever heard of someone stabbing themselves in the chest to commit suicide.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ec61a373a36da6ea8b89da7d3efec9d23a292b725ca2b10cda5ec70ed06330ed.jpg

  • Paul Hooson

    So many things went wrong to doom Moore’s campaign. Besides all of the serious allegations, he mostly failed to actively campaign, and only continued to prove himself to be the fake cowboy “drama queen” by showing up at the polls unable to really handle the horse. Before this, he has a 12 year old girl interview him for TV, which only seems like the worst possible way to dispel the allegations of his attraction to youngsters. Further, his wife made a terrible attempt to quash claims that he was antisemitic by proclaiming that they have a “Jew” lawyer. – By contrast, Doug Jones did actively campaign hard, failed to make a complete fool of himself as Roy Moore did, and was viewed as a hero to the Black community for his successful prosecution of some KKK members who bombed a church in 1963.

    In the end, the disaster of the Birmingham vote was impossible for Moore’s rural support to overcome. In 2016, Hillary Clinton garnered a bare 51.5% in Birmingham, compared to Jones garnering 68% of the vote there on Tuesday. And, in Mobile, Moore also way underperformed as well.

    If anything, the voter rejection of Moore in a safely conservative Republican stronghold is a clear message that even very partisan voters will reject a candidate if they are morally objectionable to enough of their core values regardless of their ideology. Moore exceeded that litmus test for a majority of the voters.