War is a terrible thing. Even when it is just and properly executed, war means death and destruction. Worse, many brilliant and experienced warriors have observed that wars never follow the original plan. Worse still, the politicians who plan and begin wars, and who are responsible for explaining the reasons and need for support [...]
We live in an age of morons. Unfortunately, many of them now hold high office. As an example of this foolishness at the top, consider articles like this nonsense from Foreign Policy magazine. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/01/09/a_new_US_grand_strategy Arrogant socialists imagine that key strategic goals for US foreign policy in the coming decades will depend on impractical economic whims, [...]
In 1972, Great Britain essentially ceded its role in the Middle East to the United States. The move was one of political expedience, as the UK’s leaders hoped to cut their costs supporting long-time allies by passing the duty off to America. The thinking was that the U.S. was already committed on a global scale [...]
The Wall Street Journal has an interesting article up this week, about the coming Debt Crisis in China. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324338604578325962705788582.html Mr. Sharma appears to have the credentials to speak on this, not only in his role at Morgan Stanley, but also as a published author on national economies. Forbes also had a recent article about China’s [...]
Let’s start with the obvious; what happened last week was unthinkable. Literally impossible for a rational mind to comprehend. Even serial killers understand some measure of restraint, even sociopaths tend to target perceived enemies, not innocent children. Even atheists should be able to agree that the murders of these children are nothing short of evil [...]
Back in 2008, a man who established his reputation with Baseball statistics was lionized as a political guru for correctly “predicting” the winner of 49 of the 50 states. He did this through aggregation of state polls, and a formula which, speaking bluntly, was based heavily on subjective weighting of polls he liked. On his [...]
As the election race closes to less than forty hours before Election Day, all kinds of stories have come out. ‘Inside’ stories about Romney preparing for a loss, Obama planning to move to Hawaii next year because he knows he’s done, so-called experts and gurus who promise perfect knowledge of what will happen … there’s [...]
Heard about the polls? Sure you have. Even if you have no interest in the polls, even if you hate them, the news has been full of reports from all sorts of agencies and groups, some of whom you may never had heard of, and some you frankly should ignore. This is because the news [...]
There’s no shortage of opinions on how the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election will turnout, and a lot of the disagreement comes from the different landscapes presented by the National and State polls. Romney supporters are encouraged by clear and substantial leads in the Gallup, Rasmussen, ABC News/Washington Post, and NPR polls. Obama supporters point to [...]
We’re just eleven days away from the Presidential Election, or more accurately, eleven days away from the end of voting. The news says the race is tight, but you can still find a wide range of outcomes predicted by savants and would-be wizards. While I have the same expectation for the outcome that I have [...]
I became interested in polls back when the first George Bush ran for President. I had noticed how Reagan thumped Carter in 1980 after the polls said he was behind, and noticed how odd the polls looked at various times in subsequent elections. So I started paying attention to polling agencies and tried to understand [...]
As expected, the media is casting the Second Presidential Debate as a win for Barack Obama. This is no surprise, not only due to the known bias in broadcast media, but also to keeping the drama alive in the election race. Anyone saying Romney won Tuesday’s debate is essentially saying the election is over. There’s [...]
Nice view up here. Rasmussen said it’s a tie as of Monday when I started writing this, but Gallup and Pew said Romney has the lead. All kinds of state polls are showing movement in Romney’s favor, and the commentary since the first Presidential Debate (or, if you read the New Yorker magazine and have [...]
Imagine I took a poll of delegates at the 2012 GOP National Convention. Let’s say I made sure the gender, race, age, education, and other demographics apart from party affiliation were carefully matched to voter norms. Would you be happy with such a poll? If you are a Republican, maybe, but obviously not if you [...]
Like a lot of folks, I follow opinion polls. Unlike a lot of people, I remember what I learned in my Statistics classes. This means that I try not to make the most common mistakes which happen when folks read and discuss polls. I have examined historical trends and the relevant vectors of this election [...]
“The history of American politics demonstrates that presidents who seek a second term either lose outright or win reelection with an even bigger mandate than they had before.” “Polls (and the economy) today demonstrate that Obama will be hard-pressed to match or exceed his 7 percent popular vote margin of four years ago; it’s just [...]
Things are finally getting interesting in the 2012 Presidential Election. GOP nod-apparent Mitt “Money” Romney seems to have caught Incumbent POTUS Barack “It’s Bush’s Fault” Obama in a Really Stupid Quote. At the Roanoke Fire Station #1 in Virginia last Friday, President Obama delivered a speech on the campaign and the economy that Romney has [...]
Now that the General Election season is in full swing, it’s time to look at some polls. There are four new national polls out, from CBS News/NYT, NPR, FOX News, and Rasmussen. Taken at face value, their results are as follows: CBS News: Obama 46%, Romney 47% http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57475191/cbs-news-new-york-times-poll-7-18-12/?tag=contentMain;contentBody NPR: Obama 47%, Romney 45% http://www.npr.org/news/polls/npr.pdf [...]
The whole argument over Obamacare seems to be proving a lot of cliches to be true. I don’t know that they reall are true, only that the various opinion groups are falling back on very familiar slogans and arguments. Whatever our position on the matter, I think this indicates a real barrier to getting things [...]
I was driving my daughter to the dentist today, and noticed how many businesses are open. Now, it’s true that tomorrow is Christmas Eve, so that today is just “Friday” for a lot of people, and if you don’t happen to be Christian there’s nothing really special about this holiday anyway. Then again, there was [...]
Pretty much everyone has seen or heard about the mob of malcontents camping out near Wall Street. Well, attention was their goal, so far as I can tell. The mob was not very strong in working for any specific change, and their communication skills were and are execrable. The people saying these ‘occupy’ stunts are [...]
I’ve never been a big fan of anniversaries for bad days. Mostly because there is so much insincerity; dozens of media people trot out false sorrow and sympathy on camera, then return to a life filled with self-indulgence and narcissism. The same, unfortunately, can also be said for most of our elected officials. [...]
There’s an annoying commercial making the rounds by Hertz, in which people are pigeon-holed into two classes, which Hertz tags as the ‘gas’ and the ‘brake’. The ‘gas’ people are fun-loving, adventurous types while the ‘brake’ people are depicted as timid and, well, a bit dumber than the ‘gas’ people. The commercial highlights [...]
When bad things happen, you can always count on politicians to cover their butts and point fingers. Sure enough, within hours of S&P’s downgrade of the United States from AAA to AA+, with a further downgrade more than possible, they warned, the suits were in full spin. I’m not going to waste your time [...]
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