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Forget Zogby

No matter where you turn lately, somebody is quoting poll numbers, comparing this Presidential election to ones past and making predictions accordingly. John Zogby says the election is "Kerry's to Lose."

But the people who quite literally put their money where their mouth is, don't agree.


Click for full image.

This shows a tight race, but in the end, good news for Bush. Thru history, the betting houses have been an incredibly accurate predictor of events as they represent the collective knowledge of thousands or even millions of people. Oddschecker.com compiles all the odds from the major houses together in one handy graphic. At this stage of the game this indicator is as accurate as any of them.

UPDATE: Follow those 2 trackbacks for more. McGehee figured out how to deep link it and Sean Hackbarth went and got all wonkish on us.


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Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Forget Zogby:

» blogoSFERICS linked with Take the Points or Give 'Em?

» The American Mind linked with Less Than Even Money

» Outside the Beltway linked with Elections and Markets

Comments (1)

Of course, the election is ... (Below threshold)
Jeff:

Of course, the election is six months away. Six months ago, for instance, bettors would have been putting a lot more money on the incumbent than now.




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