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It's The Economy, Stupid

Bad news for the Kerry/Edwards ticket...

WASHINGTON (AP) - The economy appears headed for a banner year despite a springtime spike in energy prices and a recent increase in interest rates.

In fact, many analysts are forecasting that the overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, will grow by 4.6 percent or better this year, the fastest in two decades.

There were strong 4.5 percent growth rates in 1997 and 1999, when Bill Clinton was president and the country was in the midst of a record 10-year expansion.

But if this year's growth ends up a bit faster than that, it will be the best since the economy roared ahead at a 7.2 percent rate in 1984, a year when another Republican president - Ronald Reagan - was running for re-election.

Bush 2004: It's The Economy, Stupid.


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Comments (15)

I dont think its bad news a... (Below threshold)

I dont think its bad news at all, because you can find a whole set of economist that will tell you that the recovery is bringing low earning jobs at a slower rate than anticipated, and that the good jobs that have been lost are not returning. They will also tell you about the millions who have simply given up looking for work. Not good for Bush Cheney.

Would the fact that the ave... (Below threshold)

Would the fact that the average wage of these new jobs is around $15/hr have any bearing on your analysis?

I dont know where you got y... (Below threshold)

I dont know where you got your figures and it is not my analysis.The economic news has been widely debated and discussed with spin from all angles.Truth is all those unemployed and underemployed workers are not buying this, so it not even for me to debate. I am lucky, I left the US economy when it started going to shit.The Republicans can spin the hell out of this, but as Reagan said, one person unemployed that wants to work is one person too many.

<a href="http://www.bls.gov... (Below threshold)
How do you explain the drop... (Below threshold)

How do you explain the drop in new car sales in June was the largest in over six years? The Bush economic plan is not working. You can read more about the Bush failure at www.fairandbalanced.us.

What do those stats prove..... (Below threshold)

What do those stats prove... That pay has went up by 24 cents in the last year in some sectors. Chris come on with the Spin... Man. So what. How many jobs are available and how many of the ones lost have been replaced?

David, Bush personally came... (Below threshold)

David, Bush personally came to my company the other day and laid off 30 people. He then signed an executive order that we not produce as much product to allow the business to shrink so that we couldn't hire anyone else.

Then he told the Texaco people to bump up the price of Regular. Then he increased the price of walnuts, plastic bottle caps, and insect repellent.

You see, Bush has 100% power when it comes to the economy. Oh yeah, people like to claim he can only sign tax cuts here or try to increase spending there to stimulate the economy, but we all know W sits behind his desk all day pushing the "Make Economy Worse" button on his laptop.

When Clinton was in office, all the hard work I put in developing Internet applications had nothing to do with how well the economy was. It wasn't the billions poured into worthless dot coms, no! It was the Democrats and BJ. Clinton who personally oversaw every program I wrote to ensure the Internet (that Gore took the initiative in inventing!) took off and made people wealthy.

Damn Bush for not waving the Magic Economy Wand in the right direction! How are we supposed to survive as Americans if the Government can't take care of us!

(Oh, and during the wonder years of Clinton, I was unemployed. Willie himself gave me the books to learn computers and taught me a new trade and it was all thanks to him that I can now support my family on my income alone. I didn't have to bust my ass, it was handed to me by the Government!)

Get a grip. I've tried and failed before. I know my industry is due to be shipped overseas. GWB isn't responsible for me, I am. I've started my own business because I see the shifting of the business sands. I'm preparing for my own future. I don't blame W for my paycheck any more than I give Clinton credit. You should do the same.

I just love the way SOME of... (Below threshold)

I just love the way SOME of you guys try to put words in my mouth. I never said that the Economy was all Bush's Fault. The only thing that is Bush's fault is a war that has killed nearly 900 people and MADE LIFE SAFER and better for the millions of Iraqi's that it hasnt killed yet.
Now as for the economy, I think who should get a grip are those who are spinning the hell out of the so called improving economy to Bush's credit. You cant have it both ways either he is responsible for the "improvements," or NOT responsible for the millions of people out of work, which one is it SHARP?
I am all for discourse and debate, but sometimes it appears that SPIN gets the best of some conservatives. A democratic sex scandal is not the same thing as a republican one. It is okay to investigate White Water and spend 70,000,000, but not Halliburton. Saddam was in Bed with Al Quaeda and had massive numbers of WMD's, oh no we didnt mean that, we meant he was developing WMDS and some of his people drank sweet tea and smoked a Hookah with some Al Quaeda types. Oh, and North Korea who has Nukes and Moons the U.S. whenever they have a chance are no where near as dangerous as Saddam... Eh, NO... They are a lot more dangerous, but then Saddam does not have 1,000,000 Taekwon Do fighting, starving Koreans ready to fight on a bowl of Kimchi a day... Do they?
I am a moderate Democrat Boys, not one of your so called Moonbats, and I fight with LOGIC, not rhetoric, you should try it sometimes, it can be liberating.

DA

Marble, The same ... (Below threshold)
capt joe:

Marble,

The same happened to me the other day. Bush came in our cafeteria and stole all the ice cream, edible oil products, one plastic turkey. He was muttering something about haliburton. All very confusing until Moore came racing in with a crazed glare and tackled. Unfortunately, he then ate the entirity of the ice cream, burped twice and escaped into the night. The black helicopters came and flew Bush away along with the plastic turkey.

oh well....

David,You argued t... (Below threshold)

David,

You argued that the jobs being created were "low earning jobs"--that is not true--unless you consider $15/hr to be "low earning"

You asked for evidence of my claim, I provided it. You may not like the evidence, but it's there.

And again, unless your lifestyle is such that $15/hr is insufficient, it's far from being "low earning"

As for "jobs that have been replaced"--I'd argue the fact that the unemployment rate has dropped from 6.3 to 5.6 in a year is a fairly good indicator of jobs being replaced.


The information you Provide... (Below threshold)

The information you Provided Chris does NOT prove that the jobs are being replaced with better paying ones. It is simply an index of existing jobs (If they are available-at least as I read it. If wrong please correct me), and there are statistics that show that those jobs are for the most part NOT being replaced in the manufacturing and IT sectors two of the sectors hit hardest. And IT people have seen an increase in hiring but at much lower salaries than pre-recession numbers. As for the sarcasm about Bush and Moore and all that, LOL! Boys, you dont even make an impact, juvenile sarcasm lost it's impact on me about 20 years ago. But then again you arent saying it for my benefit are you? More like, Hey guys look at how witty I can be. Cool. I am sure those who agree with you are high fiving themselves dizzy. In the meantime those who have lost jobs are trying to figure out how they will pay mortgages and keep food on the table. And I am not for the second time, blaming Bush for the recession. While I am not an economist, I am sure there were as HE has said, a number of factors that contributed to it. But it happened on his watch, and if Bush Cheney is going to take credit for the recovery, then they need to take blame for the recession. Tax cuts did not close all those factories, and they wont be responsible for opening them. As for those who want to ignore Halliburton, Enron, etc. Its your priveledge to do so, but I dont think the majority of Americans agree with you. In fact, if Lou Dobbs of CNN, a conservative himself, can see it, I am surprised that others cant. Perhaps the collars on the Brown Shirts are a bit too tight. See, a Liberal Tin Foil Hat wearing Moonbat can be witty too... My Stars and Garters!

The information you Prov... (Below threshold)

The information you Provided Chris does NOT prove that the jobs are being replaced with better paying ones.

Actually it does. Fairly strongly in fact. How does it do so? Well, unemployment was higher a year ago by .7% Unemployment has since dropped. If the jobs being created were in fact lower wage jobs, that would result in a lower average wage. But that has not happened.

EVERY sector has seen an increase in hourly wages over the past year. Every one. (seriously, look at it, it's kinda cool)

Again, unless you think that the existing wages are ALREADY "low earning"--you cannot rationally argue--and certainly can't prove that the jobs being created somehow earn less than those that existed before.

and there are statistics that show that those jobs are for the most part NOT being replaced in the manufacturing and IT sectors two of the sectors hit hardest.

That's a separate argument. Your contention was that the jobs that WERE being created were not earning as much. That is patently false.

That the mfr and IT sectors may/may not have created AS MANY jobs as other sectors has no bearing on whether the wages earned from those jobs actually created is, in fact, greater.

Fact remains that even in the manufacturing industry, wages have increased over the past year.

I won't respond to the rest of your post since it didn't seem directed at me, and if it was...well...yeah

The old adage about Preside... (Below threshold)

The old adage about Presidents getting too much credit when things are going well and too much blame when they're not holds true. The whole point of the post is that selling a "failing economy" may not resonate for those who are experiencing the benefits. You can usually sell an unemployed or economically disadvantaged person on change in an election, but this year there may be fewer of them available than Kerry counted on.

If citizens feel the economy is performing poorly (even in the face of evidence to the contrary) then it's an easier sell for Dems. The challenge for Bush is to "sell" the recovery.

Given the trauma to the economy of 9/11 and the recession that followed on it's heals sentiment on a recovery is lagging, even as consumer optimizing is rising. Bush must sell the economy hard, as it's hard to unseat a incumbent in boom times regardless of other issues.

C.C.- Not too h... (Below threshold)
uncommon2u:

C.C.-

Not too hard to find the numbers just go to Table B-1 where it shows clearly that in 3 out of the top 4 paying sectors,Manuf.-trans. equip.,Manuf. Non Durable-petroleum and coal prod.[I couldn't believe this myself],and Information all lost jobs over the last year. Only the Utilities sector added jobs, I wonder who the Utility Ind. supports?

If you take into account that the unemployed are dropped from adjustments after 6 mos. and adjustments are calculated based on a mere 60,000 phone interviews, which don't account for those who can no longer afford a phone,this picture gets bleakish to say the least.I not sure yet about this one, but if these figures are not adjusted for population growth it gets even worse.SIDE BAR-LAY just got indicted-hahaha,wonder who he supported?

I do agree that Presidents have less impact than they're given credit for,however when you consider that the republican party has owned all three houses of govt. it's gonna be a little harder to defend against these figures.

I'll do what I can to get your back David , the TRUTH hurts. Hard part is getting to it when this admin. works so hard to hide it.

It makes no difference what... (Below threshold)
Corey:

It makes no difference what kind of jobs are being created, it is a cycle, and it all starts at the bottom (I consider 15/hr as low-paying*). When the "little people" get some change in their pockets, they start spending like a President at war. The increase in demand creates incentive to produce more, requiring large companies to hire more peons to handle this influx of want (this is where the little ones get their money). As demand expands, the original businesses can't handle the load, making room for start-up companies, but also providing work for investment bankers, lawyers, architects, contractors, builders, insurance companies, the technology and intellectual property sector, internet, etc. as businesses attempt to satisfy demand by expanding and developing new ways to meet it.

This is why outsourcing sucks. But it also shows why putting a little money back into the people's hands is a great way to stimulate the economy.


* I am an aspiring lawyer. I can only hope that my hard years of school will provide me with a job that pays slightly more than 15 dollars an hour. Everyone works for what they have (generally, exception see Paris Hilton), and deserves what they get in my utopia of capitalism = (oxymoron).




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