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SurveyUSA: Big GOP Bounce After RNC Convention

Posted mostly for its interesting methodology

SurveyUSA: Momentum Shifts to Bush; Big GOP Bounce After RNC Convention

VERONA, N.J.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Sept. 3, 2004--The number of Americans who think George W. Bush will be re-elected in November has suddenly jumped 10 to 20 points in dozens of cities around the country, according to SurveyUSA tracking polls conducted before, during and after the Democratic and Republican National Conventions.

SurveyUSA has been asking respondents not who they will vote for, but rather: who they think will win the presidential election in November. This question is more sensitive to changes in sentiment, and is designed to capture "momentum" swings more precisely than preference questions asked of likely voters. Tracking polls released today, 9/3/04, the day after the Republican National Convention ended, show sizeable swings in the public consciousness. ...

[Examples at link -ed]

"The Democrats are eviscerated," says Jay H. Leve, Editor of SurveyUSA. "Even in the most solidly Democratic corners of this country, a majority of adults suddenly believe that George W. Bush will win in November."

I've always believed half of the election outcomes are self-fulfilling prophecies. The T.V. says who is going to win and a large hunk of the people will vote for the favorite just so they will be on the winning side. Odd behavior but it happens all the time.


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Comments (7)

I'm not sure about that. I... (Below threshold)
Meezer:

I'm not sure about that. I subscribe to "the girl you date versus the one you marry" theory. Labor Day is a bench-mark in the election. People will now stop fantasy voting and start thinking about who they really want in charge of the country.

If this poll is an outlier,... (Below threshold)
SabreMau:

If this poll is an outlier, it's now got company:

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=694&e=3&u=/ap/20040904/ap_on_el_pr/presidential_polls_glance

Newsweek, Sept. 2-3, 1,008 RV, MoE +/- 3, Bush 52, Kerry 41. (54/43 in the two-way)

What's even more odd about ... (Below threshold)

What's even more odd about the Chicago Sun Times article is that it's actually an AP story: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/C/CAMPAIGN_POLL?SITE=TNMEM&SECTION=HOME

So why did they change the headline? My gut tells me that they just couldn't bring themselves to print a double digit lead for Bush.

The lead is only going to g... (Below threshold)
Nick:

The lead is only going to get bigger as people find out more and more truth about Kerry, and he shows us more and more of his "leadership qualities".

They've made three chapters of the book available online, for distribution to the friends that just won't buy the book:

Chapter 5
Chapter 6
Chapter 8

Remember though to support the author, and buy the book

Nick, I not only bought the... (Below threshold)

Nick, I not only bought the book, but I'm passing it around to my friends at work. My goal is to have at least ten people read it and have the opportunity discuss it with their families and friends. It's the kind of book that doesn't do any good if it goes on your bookshelf after you read it.

Am I the only one enjoying ... (Below threshold)
JM Hanes:

Am I the only one enjoying the small irony in which previous CW had Democratic primary voters casting their ballots for the most "electable" candidate?

I am very glad that people ... (Below threshold)
Branna:

I am very glad that people saw what the republican party has to offer them when they watched the convention. With all the talk about the GOP platform vs. the speakers, my only comment would be that when it comes to security, even the more liberal minded want security & not liberalism run amok DNC style. How else can republicans win in places like NY & CA? Rudy, Arnold & others who spoke WERE ELECTED. They aren't just pundits.

You'll never see Democrats let conservatives speak at their convention. They just keep putting forth the same old recycled libs in our faces & expect people to believe their double talk.

That's why Bush WILL win. YEAAAAA!!!!

BUSH/CHENEY 2004!




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