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Bush Ahead in Key States

From FoxNews

Bush Ahead in Key States

President Bush is doing well in battleground states that he won four years ago. According to polling by Mason-Dixon, Bush is ahead of Sen. John Kerry by 11 points in Arizona, 9 points in New Hampshire, 7 points each in Ohio and Missouri, 5 points in Nevada and a single point in West Virginia.

In states where no one was expecting much of a fight, new polls†confirm that assumption ó Kerry leads Bush in Illinois by 15 points, while Bush tops Kerry by 15 points in Kentucky and 16 points in Tennessee.

OK let's cut to the chase. This election is not a national election. Kerry and Bush are running for governor in about 5 states. Over the last week or so Bush is taking basically all of those states. This poll has Ohio +7 for Bush. Another has Bush up by 11. Many have said Ohio is the Florida of 2004.

All in all, we still have a month and a half to go but these polls are devastating for Kerry.

One of the byproducts of 9/11 is that people for the first time in a generation are paying attention to foreign policy. Compare that to Clinton's first election where foreign policy was taboo. (some would argue we paid a dear price for that later)

Point being, the electorate can be described many ways buy volatile is not one of them. Heck, the race was tied within the margin of error for 6 months. At the risk of making an analogy I have no way of backing up... 5 points this year is like 10 points any other year. Voters are making up their mind and sticking with their guy.

Does this mean the race is over? Not by a long shot. Big poll numbers this early hurt the guy in the lead. The leaders relax and the underdogs get motivated.

But having said all the above, this is very good news for George Bush.


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