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This Just In - Bush Wins 3rd Debate

As much as people on both sides want to spin the outcome of the 3rd debate (I called it a draw), the only group that actually matters is speaking up.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush opened a four-point lead on Democratic Sen. John Kerry the day after the final debate between the White House rivals, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Friday.

Bush led Kerry 48-44 percent in the latest three-day tracking poll, which included one night of polling done after Wednesday's debate in Tempe, Arizona. Bush led Kerry, a senator from Massachusetts, by only one point, 46-45 percent, the previous day.
An improvement in Bush's showing among undecideds and a strong response from his base Republican supporters helped fuel the president's rise.

The bigger question is whether Bush will open back up to the 8-10 point lead he had after the convention or whether the gap will close. Since the debates may have been the last, best chance for the Kerry/Edwards ticket it remains to be seen whether they close the gap as the election draws near or if Bush pulls away.


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Comments (34)

So much for 3-0.Th... (Below threshold)
Andre3000:

So much for 3-0.

The Senatron and his puppy seem to be imploding.

thank god.... (Below threshold)

thank god.

But Dick Cheney's daughter ... (Below threshold)
Sean:

But Dick Cheney's daughter is a lesbian!

The one day numbers must be... (Below threshold)
Al:

The one day numbers must be staggering.

It's shifted a 3-day average by _three_points_.

If it was 46-45 yesterday,
46-45, 46-45, 46-45, averages to 46-45.

Drop the old data, add 'x' for today, leads to 48-44.
(46+46+x)/3 = 48.

I get x=52. 52= OUCH.

I put Zogby as 'low for Bush by 2%' generally also.

What about Halliburton????<... (Below threshold)
DBub:

What about Halliburton????

My dream scenario:<... (Below threshold)
MahaRichie:


My dream scenario:
On election day,Bush has a six to eight point lead.This will be very discouraging to the lethargic and normally disinterested bank of newly registered Dems.They will lose hope in Bush being replaced(which is all they really desire),and won't even show up at the polls.
Result:Bush ELECTORAL LANDSLIDE.

I think that what happened ... (Below threshold)

I think that what happened was that prior to the debates, the Pres had all the mo, and the dems were really depressed, discouraged, etc. Bush's piss poor performance in debate one gave them a little zing in their step and depressed Repubs. Now that the debates (Bush's most dangerous endeavor in the campaign) are over and he showed stronger each time, Repub zeal is back up, and it will keep climbing. The more Bush's numbers creep up, the worse the Dems will feel.

Little of this was about persuading undecideds, but instead was about energizing your base and demoralizing that of your opponent. If your opponent is sad and gloomy, they won't even get out of bed on election day.

I predict the lead will grow back to the previous proportions as we approach Nov 2.

That is an "ouch" Al, but o... (Below threshold)
Sean:

That is an "ouch" Al, but only if the report is referring to the three day average right? They might mean that Bush was at 46-45 in their poll numbers from Day 2 and rose to 48-44 in their poll numbers for Day 3.

JOHN KERRY HAS HIM WHERE HE... (Below threshold)
HOTROD:

JOHN KERRY HAS HIM WHERE HE WANTS HIM.....................GOODBYE G BUSH YOU SUCK

We can all dream!... (Below threshold)

We can all dream!

The moonbats at DU are in a... (Below threshold)
Democrat4Bush:

The moonbats at DU are in a state of panic over this news.

OK, Keep drinking the coola... (Below threshold)
Dave:

OK, Keep drinking the coolade. You take one day of a tracking poll to come to that conclusion. The reality is that the average of all polls (a much better measure) GWB has been crashing ever since the first debate. At his peak he had about a +3.5 advantage over John Kerry. Now he is even with John Kerry when you look at all of the polls.

http://tis.goringe.net/pop/pollofpolls.html

The graph says it all. We can all point to polls we like (I happen to like the one that came out today with John Kerry up 50% - 45%) but there is so much non-statistical variation on these polls depending on the methodology that taken individually they are only good for following trends.

The big MO is going towards John Kerry.

Dave (the other one)

But, you know what this mea... (Below threshold)
OneDrummer:

But, you know what this means, don't you? Time to send out AFL-CIO goons to do some more 'campaigning'.....

Lets get real here. Kerry ... (Below threshold)
Jim:

Lets get real here. Kerry won the 1st debate -- all this assuming you watched on television-- but Kerry won that one. Most people and polls placed them close, but said Kerry won.

Most polls said the 2nd debate was close, but Kerry won. 'Dunno if that's how I saw it, but for argument's sake I'll buy it.

Now before we get to the 3rd debate we need to review what and why the first debates went to Kerry. Reality intrudes: Bush looked and spoke poorly in the first debate. He repeated 'hard work' too much, he looked tired, and he did not project himself or his policies well. Kerry projected himself well, looked serious, and spoke articulately.

At the second debate Bush did much better. Excluding fanatics, nobody appears to question this. Kerry's performance was steady-- like the first debate.

In the third debate Kerry's start was perhaps better than in the first two, but substantially the same. But Bush's performance was startlingly better than before.

Then Kerry dropped his 'lezbo' baiting line; the audience groaned and Kerry faultered. He never recovered --so shook up that he flubbed the 'important woman' question. He appeared to recover in summation, but actually forgot several lines in the (rehearsed) speech.

In summation, Kerry's appearance was consistent through all three debates, but dropped a little in the last part of the third. Bush improved his delivery-- marked improvement-- at each debate. Call it how you want, but a "close" debate (1st & 2nd) followed by continued marked improvement in the third is a win in most contests. Bush won the last one, and won it handily.

Hey, Libs -- you guys may b... (Below threshold)
Jim:

Hey, Libs -- you guys may be seeing the beginning of the end. Your candidate is simply -- in the words of his own wife -- a scumbag and there may be more than half of the USA population who recognize that. Also, idiot Dave can't even spell Kool Aid. That's the level of intelligence of Kerry supporters. BTW, all of the polls show Bush ahead. Rasmussen, Gallup, Marist, etc. all have Bush ahead. Your scumbags exposed themselves by making Mary Cheney's sexuality an issue. Just goes to show you what a bunch of sexual perverts the Libs truly are. LOL.

Kerry/Edwards have stopped ... (Below threshold)
Jake:

Kerry/Edwards have stopped trying to win. They know that Bush will take the election, so now they're just working on the legal approach. Kerry announced that he's sending lawyers to polling places to observe.... but really he's just sending his time to look for things that can the basis for a lawsuit.

This poll is promising, but... (Below threshold)
Lastango:

This poll is promising, but doesn't seem to be specific to the swing states, which - right now - are the only states that matter. Even "undecided" voters in already-decided states don't matter.

We can argue about who won the debate sessions, but, the RNC has the best opportunity to win the post-debate because Kerry's performances were riddled with contradictions and stupidities (like giving Iran nuclear material) that can be exploited in attack adds in a compact way viewers can grasp. Also, the Swifts will spend every dime they've got during the next two weeks, and they're only doing media buy in swing states.

Attack ad's take a bit of time to bite due to the need for repetition, so we should be watching for a trend, not a sharp move.

Lastango:Good post.... (Below threshold)
MahaRichie:


Lastango:Good post.Very logical and cogent.It will be interesting to see this gradually unfold.

Well that is a really intel... (Below threshold)
Dave:

Well that is a really intelligent comment. Attacking my intelligence because I did not spell Kool Aid correctly. If you think that is a measure of my intelligence then I really feel sorry for you - Jim

Of course no rebuttal to the overall trend of polls I referenced and linked to.

Typical Republican, if you don't like the message - attack the messenger.

Dave (the other one)

Dave, the trend is that Ker... (Below threshold)

Dave, the trend is that Kerry was doing well before, but now Bush is doing better. That suggests that Bush is winning.

Because, you know, time only moves in one direction.

I didn't attack your intell... (Below threshold)
Jim:

I didn't attack your intelligence. One needs to possess intelligence in order for someone to attack it. Typical Lib, always whining about being attacked. That's why we can't trust Democrats with national security. Even some Liberals admit that.

Despite the speculation on ... (Below threshold)
Amber:

Despite the speculation on who won the last debate, I am seeing more and more Democrats who aren't 'for' Kerry - they're just 'against' Bush.

I believe this lack of commitment will result in a big surprise at the ballot box, when many Democrats standing in their private booth realize they are not really 'for' Kerry after all.

While I think this will be enough to keep the president in the White House, if al-Qaeda decides to strike before the elections - unlike Spain - even the Dems will say to h*ll with the 'global test' and give Bush a double digits win.

Kerry was unquestionably th... (Below threshold)

Kerry was unquestionably the better debater. Unfortunately, he's arguing liberal positions. Even the best debater can't "win" trying to claim water isn't wet.

Bush won, because his ideas won.

I had Rush on the radio fo... (Below threshold)
Peter:

I had Rush on the radio for awhile today, he mentioned that there are polls suggesting that Bush is polling about ten percent better among black Americans than he did in '00. A ten percent shift in the near monolithic black vote would sink the Donk ticket without a trace.
This jibes with Dubya's past history, he did MUCH better with that segment of the vote running for reelection as Gov than he did in the first election.
There is a similar trend among Hispanics as well.
Here in Northeast Texas, a traditional 'yella dawg Dem' area I'm not seeing near the numbers of Donk yard signs and bumper stickers as I'm used to.
Unscientific, I know, but I think the Donks are in a quiet panic.

Fortunately, despite Jesse ... (Below threshold)
Amber:

Fortunately, despite Jesse Jackson and Hollywood want-a-be Al Sharpton, the black community is getting smarter.

It's all about 'what have you done for me lately.' The Democratic party has done very little. I have several black friends who are Republicans, and despite the fact that they have less money than the 'African American' Terereeza, they're doing six figures and feel the incentive should be on the high side rather than promote poverty.


Jim, It is really ... (Below threshold)
Dave:

Jim,

It is really easy to write baseless attacks on me from the annonomity of blogsphere rather than engage in a real debate of ideas - just shows your lack of willingness to have a real debate.

You have no idea of my intelligence of lack thereof. All you know is that I am not a conservative like you.

So by your definition everyone who disagrees with your political philosophy must be not intelligent.

Well that is a real intelligent way of approaching things, isn't it.

Dave (the other one)

I do not think I have ever ... (Below threshold)
Rich:

I do not think I have ever heard anyone give me a solid reason for Kerry. It is a pretty even split where I work(a hospital) and the responses for Kerry are always something that demeans Bush. It is never any positive comment on Kerry himself. It just seems like the whole Democratic Kerry movement is just a front and totally hollow. Even the debates are all measured on how Bush performed.

Jim, It is really ... (Below threshold)
Dave:

Jim,

It is really easy to write baseless attacks on me from the annonomity of blogsphere rather than engage in a real debate of ideas - just shows your lack of willingness to have a real debate.

You have no idea of my intelligence of lack thereof. All you know is that I am not a conservative like you.

So by your definition everyone who disagrees with your political philosophy must be not intelligent.

Well that is a real intelligent way of approaching things, isn't it.

Dave (the other one)

Dave, you're repeating your... (Below threshold)
Jim:

Dave, you're repeating yourself. A sign of senility or just part of the pathology of Liberalism?

Bush definitely won. He ha... (Below threshold)
rj:

Bush definitely won. He had Kerry off-balance the whole time. For example, he deflected truth ("Osama who?") as an exaggeration, and presented exaggeration ("Most Liberal Senator") as the truth! Sheer genius!

No it is a sign of a slow w... (Below threshold)
Dave:

No it is a sign of a slow website that seems to get hung up when I am posting so I hit the post button again, Jim

Hey, Dave (the other one):<... (Below threshold)
-S-:

Hey, Dave (the other one):

We took yer jaaaeeebbbs!

~:-o

Umm, that'd be:We ... (Below threshold)
-S-:

Umm, that'd be:

We took yer JEEEEAAAABBBS!

S??????????... (Below threshold)
Dave:

S


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