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Osama Bin Laden Surrenders?

Wretchard, over at Belmont Club, makes a point so good, I am embarrassed I did not see it myself. (OK I was busy yesterday) After a transcript of the bin Laden tape he says:

It is important to notice what he has stopped saying in this speech. He has stopped talking about the restoration of the Global Caliphate. There is no more mention of the return of Andalusia. There is no more anticipation that Islam will sweep the world. He is no longer boasting that Americans run at the slightest wounds; that they are more cowardly than the Russians. He is not talking about future operations to swathe the world in fire but dwelling on past glories. He is basically saying if you leave us alone we will leave you alone. Though it is couched in his customary orbicular phraseology he is basically asking for time out.

It is a very good observation. In all of his other rants, he speaks of our demise but in this one he just wants to be left alone. On the surface it suggests that we (ie Bush) have been effective.

The two caveats I'd add is that this tape was considerably shorter than his usual diatribes so maybe he just stuck to the point and second, maybe even he is realizing that if he threatens us too dramatically, Bush wins in a walk.

Still, it is an interesting observation.


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Comments (15)

Interesting, indeed. ... (Below threshold)
Russ:

Interesting, indeed.

And if it's true, now would be an ideal time to go all "Sun-Tzu" on him. Kick 'em when they're down, etc., etc.

I'm with Russ. History show... (Below threshold)

I'm with Russ. History shows that our enemies have wasted no opportunity to meet apparent weakness on our part with greater and more ruthless aggression on theirs.

This isn't a schoolyard fight to first blood, and Osama doesn't get to cry uncle.

OBL is offering us an easy ... (Below threshold)
Lastango:

OBL is offering us an easy way to get peace in our time if we "do the right thing" so I agree with Paul's caveat.

How can it be noteworthy that OBL doesn't follow his offer of a truce with the equivalent of "By the way, we're still bent on global Islamofascistic domination, so I guess there really can't be a truce anyway"?


So we know Bin Laden is lyi... (Below threshold)

So we know Bin Laden is lying about a truce trying to get us to back off so he can re group and re build and maybe save some o fthe land they have lost in the war he brought on them.

We really need to play up this "truce" story, whether it's true or not doesn't matter, it would make UBL look weak on the ARAB street if we could portray his as begging the mighty american army to back off and leave the poor muslim terrorists be....

consider, for a moment, som... (Below threshold)
paul lukasiak:

consider, for a moment, some reality....

Osama bin Laden is fully aware that he is not popular in the United States, and that any message to the american people would be rejected. He may be a maniac, but that doesn't make him stupid.

Now, consider how his tape is perceived in the Islamic world.

This is a "campaign" tape, but the campaign here is for public opinion in the Islamic world. OBL has a pretty solid base now, thanks to Bush, and is reaching out for the moderate Muslims---muslims who are not especially fond of either al Qaeda or Bush. So OBL is "reaching out" by presenting himself as a "reasonable" man who explains his actions in a way that panders to the prejudices of his intended audience (i.e. anti-israel, anti-decadent nepotistic leaders, etc...).

This video was the "madison avenue" version of jihadist propaganda.

it had nothing to do with the American elections, and everything to do with how muslims interpreted events in the days to come....

Osama isn't going to surren... (Below threshold)
joey:

Osama isn't going to surrender. Al Qaeda coined the phrase "You love life and we love death". That doesn't sound like a bunch that wants to surrender and head for the beach house. They only bargain for time, not peace, and they know Kerry will grasp at any chance to bargain so he can claim victory while Al Qaeda regroups for the mother of all terror attacks on America.

Leave us alone. Right.

I agree with Paul above. I... (Below threshold)
Jack:

I agree with Paul above. In addition I would add an additional caveat, which is that we have only see part of the tape. Wretchard's analysis, which I also linked to, might fall apart if all the usual rantings were contained in those parts of the tape that have not yet been released.

Paul l., perhaps we should ... (Below threshold)
Lastango:

Paul l., perhaps we should reach for Occam's Razor here and conclude that, collateral impacts aside, an OBL tape released days before the American election and which directly addresses the American electorate aims at influencing the American election.


It would be silly to think ... (Below threshold)
Sean:

It would be silly to think that this tape was not meant to influence our election. OBL is not stupid. He knows that the Liberal Left in this country are completely anti-war. He's giving them a reason to oppose Bush. He knows how stupid, blind, gullible, and naive most of the Left really is. He knows that many on the Left will actually believe what he says on this tape. Yes, this was the jihadist version of Madison Ave. But it was aimed directly at our Main Street. He's hoping to accomplish with this tape what he cannot accomplish with bombs (like he did in Spain) - a Lefty, anti-war, sweep.

He's hoping against hope for a Kerry victory because Bush has proven too dedicated to eradicating al Qaeda.

an OBL tape released day... (Below threshold)

an OBL tape released days before the American election and which directly addresses the American electorate aims at influencing the American election.

Don't get too nuanced for Mr. Lukasiak -- you'll only confuse him.

I agree with <a href="http:... (Below threshold)

I agree with Beldar: OBL is opening up negotiations with President Kerry for a hudna. It 's the time to go for a kill.

I think Dave Schuler is rig... (Below threshold)

I think Dave Schuler is right. See my post from earlier this evening: Osama Counters

Did they release all 18 min... (Below threshold)

Did they release all 18 minutes of it yet? I think we only got 5 or so of what A-J showed.

Historian Paul Johnson wrot... (Below threshold)

Historian Paul Johnson wrote:

"All the elements of anarchy and unrest in the Middle East and Muslim Asia and Africa are clamoring and praying for a Kerry victory. The mullahs and the imams, the gunmen and their arms suppliers and paymasters, all those who stand to profit—politically, financially, and emotionally—from the total breakdown of order, the eclipse of democracy, and the defeat of the rule of law, want to see Bush replaced. His defeat on November 2 will be greeted, in Arab capitals, by shouts of triumph from fundamentalist mobs of exactly the kind that greeted the news that the Twin Towers had collapsed and their occupants been exterminated.

I cannot recall any election when the enemies of America all over the world have been so unanimous in hoping for the victory of one candidate. That is the overwhelming reason that John Kerry must be defeated, heavily and comprehensively. "

http://www.hacer.org/current/US128.php

I agree with Beldar and Dav... (Below threshold)
-S-:

I agree with Beldar and Dave Schuler, McGhee, Russ, Lastango, Paul/Author of thread and a few others...but particularly that UsamaBL was moreorless speaking TO Kerry and the DNC here, offering appeasement, if not lending support.

No way was the timing NOT intended to make impact with the election process in the U.S. U/OBL lives in caves but he's got communications, quite obviously.

One of the creepiest things about Kerry, visually, to my eye is that he and U/OBL seem oddly twin-like. Cousins, perhaps. Too oddly similar in appearance to be accidental...




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