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Paul's Prediction

Everyone is throwing numbers out there and trying to predict how many EC votes Bush and Kerry will get. Not being one to follow the herd, I'll do one better. I'll predict both the election and the aftermath.

This will be another "stolen" election, but not quite like 2000.

In 2000, Gore lost his court battle because he wanted votes defined different ways in different counties within the same state. He wanted hanging chads to define a vote in some counties but mere dimples defined as votes in strong Dem counties. While the loony tunes on the left claim the election was "stolen," anyone with a brain can understand that Gore was trying to game the system. Further they counted the votes the way Gore wanted to and Bush got MORE votes. So the "stolen election" line was to motivate the stupid and the gullible.

2004 will be different. It will be stolen. Bush will "win," but alas he will not win by enough.

There will be clear and overwhelming evidence of voter fraud on the Dem side but it won't matter. Not having a single event to point to (a court battle) the media will report on the fraud but will stress that with the current system of voting there is no real way to know.

There will be the occasional story about some guy who voted 5 times but those stories will run in the Washington Times or the NY Post, the big media will avoid it like the plague. I'll even be so bold as to say that in at least some precincts, there will be more votes than registered voters.

In the end, Kerry will get 274 EC votes and "win" the election.

Thru it all, the media, who 4 years ago wailed that every vote should count, will now bash the Republicans to drop it "for the good of the nation." At least one person (dem or media, same thing) will make the argument that such wide spread voter fraud PROVES how much people wanted Kerry to win. I'll blog that story and call them a dirty name. (Then at least one delusional lefty blogger will link it agreeing with the "voter fraud means Kerry won theory.")

Still others will say that Bush should drop it because of how we look to other nations. (A charge never leveled at Dems) I'll blog that too with appropriate dirty names to follow.

In the end, the spineless Republicans will drop it and so will end election 2004.

Now that's a prediction.

Not knowing how to file this, I put it under "humor" but...

UPDATE: DRAT! I forgot one.

Several goofballs will say that since Bush won the last contested election he should give this one to Kerry to be "fair." -Look out for low flying dirty words.


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» Les Jones's Blog linked with Bloggers, Place Your Bets on the 2004 Elections

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» Mind of Mog linked with Around The Sphere

» Caerdroia linked with Acceptance

Comments (39)

Stop stealing my thoughts!<... (Below threshold)
Jeff:

Stop stealing my thoughts!

I gotta start copyrighting them...

Great synopsis of what I expect to be a protracted legal fight.

Hmm, I hope this holds true... (Below threshold)
BR:

Hmm, I hope this holds true for your full pre-emptive inspection of what might happen:

Full inspection of an unwanted condition in the past, present or future, can make it vanish. So I'll wave the magic 13th fairy wand over Sleeping Beauty and decree that she will rise again unharmed!

At around 2:00 AM on the mo... (Below threshold)
andre3000:

At around 2:00 AM on the morning after election day 2000, Jonathan Alter was the first brave soul to suggest that for the good of the country George Bush should cede the election to Kerry.

I was up all night watching that wretched election.

God help us if we have a repeat.

There will be fraud in every state, some more, some less. Let's just hope the result is outside the margin for a recount in each state and that the fraud has no effect one way or the other.

I'm hoping to wake up Wedne... (Below threshold)
Clay Jarr:

I'm hoping to wake up Wednesday to your admission that you were wrong.

Although, I'm in the middle of Harry Stein's book, "How I Accidentally Joined the Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy" and have to admit that I'm actually beginning to understand the left. And it's scary. I'm understanding that the luxury that they enjoy in moral relativism gives them a clear advantage.

Could be that 4 years of Kerry is just what this country needs - or deserves. But, I won't go quietly. And I'll be found fighting at the end.

I'm beginning to take your ... (Below threshold)
notthisgirl:

I'm beginning to take your point of view. I think Kerry will win the same way. God I hope I'm wrong.

Unless the Republicans can with out a doubt prove that there is blatant fraud, the Dem's (and thus, the MSM) will drown the Republicans out with "It's our turn now to win the same way you did in 00 - quit your b*tching".

The MSM is a co-conspirator in all of this. Thank God we now have better places to turn for our news and commentary. I also enjoy reading some of the other side too.

Thanks for your great work here.

I totally second Cla... (Below threshold)
notthisgirl:

I totally second Clay's comments!

I'm hoping to wake up We... (Below threshold)
Paul:

I'm hoping to wake up Wednesday to your admission that you were wrong.

Me too Clay- Me too.

Cheer up - there may be a s... (Below threshold)
BR:

Cheer up - there may be a sleeper voter block that no one knows of. That "cell phone" group they haven't been able to poll. I have this feeling that a lot of 20 and even 30-year olds may have grown up in ex-hippie households and just got sick enough of their liberal parents to swing the other way. A quiet, unknown new youth rebellion. Pendulum swing. Anecdotal: I heard a mother call in on a talk show in the most liberal state saying all three her young daughters and their friends have decided to vote for the first time this year - and guess for whom they're voting..... Bush!

I really do hope you are wr... (Below threshold)
Tim in PA:

I really do hope you are wrong, Paul. That right there would effectively be the end of the republic.

If it does come to pass..... I'm young. I do not have a faimly. I do not own a home. I will not answer to a fraudulent government.

Bush landslide. Read the CB... (Below threshold)
Jim in Chicago:

Bush landslide. Read the CBS/NYT internals for chrissake.

This election will be over when the polls in NJ, Penn, Ohio, and Michigan close and Drudge releases the exit polls showing Bush has sewpt all 4.

There's will be nothing to litigate.

.. And BR, you are more rig... (Below threshold)
Tim in PA:

.. And BR, you are more right than you know. I have never, ever seen as many GOP bumper stickers as I have seen at my college; they outnumber Kerry stickers by at least 4 to 1. The only question is, will younger people vote?

- The Liberal press has pul... (Below threshold)

- The Liberal press has pulled out all the stops on this one, keeping its highly disliked candidate close by every trick in the book, particularly this last minute "tie" in the polls. Thus one is going to be like "Sea Biscuit" going in, but with Bush carrying more of the big swing states it will be more like "Secretariat" in the end. The press will try the old early evening "exit" poll scam, but by midnight it will be all over. Bush 52%, Kerry 47%....

Tim in PA - Yaaaayyy! Good... (Below threshold)
BR:

Tim in PA - Yaaaayyy! Good to hear about your observations.

The Dems are practicing hocus-pocus: a liberal friend e-mailed me (thinking I'm a Dem, hee hee) this ridiculous link to a Dem-sponsored website that makes the viewer envision a total Dem victory - something like if you can see it, you can believe it, and then it can happen.

Well, in this time of witches, flying broomsticks and magic - whose vision will be the strongest? Cowards or heroes?

It wouldn't be the first ti... (Below threshold)

It wouldn't be the first time Paul. A lot of people still think Nixon won in '60 but that massive voter fraud in IL and TX cost him the election. Nixon could hve asked for a recount but did not.

Drudge is already showing r... (Below threshold)
Rodney Dill:

Drudge is already showing reports by other media that some of the early reports give Kerry a lead where early voting was done in Florida and Iowa. Hows that for tainting the election.

Rodney, I noticed that this... (Below threshold)
Jim:

Rodney, I noticed that this morning on Fox & Friends. It's quite evident that E.D. Hall is in the tank for Kerry. If Fox News Channel is supposed to be linked to the GOP, the GOP should fire the lot of them. LOL.

I predict it will not be a close race. Whomever wins will win by a comfortable margin. Even the lawyers won't be able to help Kerry's sorry ass if Bush wins, and Bush is too much of a gentleman to make a fuss over losing. Now, that said, I believe that Bush has a 70-30 chance for re-election. I know a lot of Donks (God help me!) and the majority of them tell me they're voting for Kerry because he's a Democrat. Not one says he's a great candidate. Also, not one said they hated Bush, only they will not vote Republican. A few of these staunch Dems, however, a businessman, says he's voting for Bush.

- Jim - Yes. I've noticed t... (Below threshold)

- Jim - Yes. I've noticed the marked early morning "shift" to Kerry cheer leading on FOX just in the past few days...I think this is all part of the plan for the entire news establishment to keep it as close to a tie as possible in the hopes there will be post election litigation furor. With the media its all about the bottom line. I think what they can't do is manage the record turn out of conservative and moderate voters in the end....

Speaking of Fox & Friends, ... (Below threshold)
fansipans:

Speaking of Fox & Friends, did anyone else see the half-dozen people in dolphin costumes holding up "Kerry" signs outside the window?! Flipper! Bahaha, and one of the dolphins had a red head with a giant sign saying "How's my tan?"

Hehe :D

In the CBS/NYT poll, of tho... (Below threshold)
andre3000:

In the CBS/NYT poll, of those who have already voted, Bush holds a 50-45 lead.

If the results were inverted, I presume that internal result would be page one news.

- You presume correctly and... (Below threshold)

- You presume correctly andre....The last thing you'll see is any mention of an early Buah lead indicator from any of the media. The problem the Dem's have is a much greater number of conservatives voters in the battleground states are savvy to the press "suppress" the vote tactics this time around. The Republicans have done a better job of "educating" their base this time around. The "change in the middle of war" thing will be the deciding factor for independents and last minute undecided's, many of whom are elderly and will vote from emotion. Thats why the press sided with Kerry in this cycle more than ever. They knew that going in....You need close to a tie to make it a winner for the press bottom line....

Your last line is probably ... (Below threshold)
Calex59:

Your last line is probably true, joking or not!!! This is something I have heard several demwits here in CA hint at...Bush should give it to the Dems to make up for last election. What nut jobs.
I am wondering how the demwits missed the cow vote in WI. The big cow for Dems movement never took off in WI. I don't think they could figure out how to get them to the polls...

It can't be a good conteste... (Below threshold)

It can't be a good contested election prediction unless the Supreme Court is involved some how. You know, something like having a federal judge in San Francisco or Massachusetts decree that "voter fraud by Democrats is a valid expression of free speech protected by the Constitution" and have the Supreme Court refuse to pick up the case.

- And Paul....I'm willing t... (Below threshold)

- And Paul....I'm willing to put up a bottle of our favorite apertif's on a basis of your prediction versus mine.... "Si' queda aposta' amigo?..." ....

Plausible scenario Paul.</p... (Below threshold)
Jim Hines:

Plausible scenario Paul.

Worthy of fleshing out into a novel.

Bush 271

Kerry 267

HI is the key. Bush wins it.
Bush loses MN wins WI
Kerry wins OH loses IA

Court challenges in FL, OH, PA CO, NV and NM.

Civil war flashpoint FL. Haittian immigrants clash with Cuban Americans.

And Paul....I'm willing to... (Below threshold)
Paul:

And Paul....I'm willing to put up a bottle of our favorite apertif's on a basis of your prediction versus mine.... "Si' queda aposta' amigo?..." ....

Hunter... link?

Since we're going out on li... (Below threshold)

Since we're going out on limbs and begging people to cut them off udner us, here's mine:

49-state landslide. Kerry wins Vermont and DC. Is found hanging in his hotel room the next morning with a suicide note that looks strangely like Teresa wrote it.

A quiet, unknown new you... (Below threshold)
Clay Jarr:

A quiet, unknown new youth rebellion. Pendulum swing.

I do have to say this (also purely anecdotal). I have two teenagers who are eligible to vote for the first time. Now these kids are not indoctrinated. I am a conservative and have been all of my adult life, but have not been extremely vociferous in my views (it's all changin' now). Here's the profile of my kids:
Daughter: 19 yrs old. Popular cheerleader in high-school, trendy & popular at college. 'W' sticker on her car.
Son: 18 yrs old. Graduates this year. Skater (extreme) heavy into alt music. Calls people who are voting for Kerry 'uinformed losers'.
Their friends: Pretty much the same. These kids are rocking the vote alright. For Bush.

- Paul my blogger lacks tra... (Below threshold)

- Paul my blogger lacks trackback which I really find annoying....Generally I never post my link in comments but since you asked its here....

any informed young person w... (Below threshold)
chuck:

any informed young person would know their only hope for S.S. would be in the Bush plan for them to have their own accounts. The older crowd (my mom) will go more for kerry if they were traditional dems, because they think Bush will take their S.S. The true difference in this election will be the traditional values vote. I'm having knee surgery today, somehow on Nov 2 I will drag myself out and vote for Bush. If Kerry is elected the europeanisation of America will be a done deal. We will bow down to the world court and the U.N. Kiss our soverinty goodbye

If it happens like you say,... (Below threshold)
Les Nessman:

If it happens like you say, will there be 'troubles'? Not like some rag-tag Rodney King riots, but rather some intelligent people actually taking action?
I hate to even think about it.

Very true Clay, I am among ... (Below threshold)

Very true Clay, I am among the under-30 crowd and I suspect there is a lot of Republican sentiment in the younger crowd that is being missed in the polls.

Remember, polls are a not a sample of all people. They are a sample of people willing to spend 10 minutes answering a survey (I'm not, and I have to believe a lot of other people also aren't). Who knows how that skews the result?

Les,Fear not. Thi... (Below threshold)
andre3000:

Les,

Fear not. This country is too stable, regardless of what instability mongers want to convince you of to go beyond the occasional sports/Rodney King type riots. If "intelligent" people were to take to the streets, where would they go?

Keep in mind, I don't consider either WTO protesters or militia types to be intelligent people.

I am too afraid to go to sl... (Below threshold)
RM:

I am too afraid to go to sleep Tuesday evening and even more afraid to wake up Wednesday morning. Does anyone think that the election will be decided decisively?

The only ones litigating the "morning after" will be the Dems if they don't get their way.

Kind of like bullies who beat the crap out of someone for their lunch money.

A Bush win will be twofold.... (Below threshold)
ljd:

A Bush win will be twofold. First, it will demonstrate the will of the people for every one on the left that needs to wake up to reality. Second, it will confirm that, even with overwhelming liberal media bias, voters cannot be swayed by televised stupidity.

On that note, realize that lefties are noisy people who like to have a demonstration about something, anything. Just because there's twenty of them on the corner holding signs doesn't mean they represent anything of your community.

I don't believe most of the people who vote Republican are the type to beat a drum. In fact, many are holding their preference confidential because of the outright hostility of the left.

If I am wrong, I will enjoy watching the Kerry followers proven wrong, as he completely screws the pooch. However, I will likely have a serious conflict on my hands. When Kerry flops on his "backdoor draft" policy, I will struggle with being called up from the inactive reserves to serve under "Hanoi John".

Two new polls came out show... (Below threshold)
Jim:

Two new polls came out showing Kerry leads Bush by 2% (Fox News) and 1% (Marist). What is going on? You mean Kerry got a bin Laden-video bounce?

- Fox. in an effort to be f... (Below threshold)

- Fox. in an effort to be first, is doing a good job of "confused early Polling results" giving Kerry a 48% to 43% lead, then 5 seconds later turning around and running down the swing states and showing not a damn thing has changed in the last 72 hours, except that Bush is "up" slightly in the key states like Ohio. They must be using a survey of 7 Kerry suppoters and 6 Bush supporters locked in a phone booth in Newark for their demographic. Either that or they're getting their data points from a magic marker.... and then people wonder why no one trusts polsters....

The bets are in, Bush to wi... (Below threshold)
MoneyWhere MouthIs:
Jiminy! Newt Gingri... (Below threshold)
-S-:

Jiminy! Newt Gingrich just said on FOX/O'Reilly that he "believes Bush will win...and that we'll have a winner announced by Wednesday morning" (he MAY have said, "by Tuesday night").

My best guess and hopes are... (Below threshold)
-S-:

My best guess and hopes are that Bush will win.




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