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All Sides Agree - Early Exit Polls Are Crap

Read the MysteryPoller as to why you shouldn't place any stock in the early exit polls. That said... Kerry supporters here's the message you should take from the numbers: No need to show up; your vote isn't needed.

Read Paul's post below as well...

Update: Jonah Goldberg has the following:

I'm being told that those Wonkette numbers are absolutely, positively not exit poll numbers. They might be results of early voting "exit" polls (i.e. votes cast over the last two weeks), but they do not track at all the exits for votes cast today. That said, I'm told the exits don't look great for Bush either. Of course, that changes none of the caveats about exit polls already posted below.
If you must know what they are, here are the alleged numbers, via Daily Kos and MyDD...


	 AZ  CO  LA  PA  OH  FL  MI  NM  MN  WI  IA  NH
Kerry	 45  48  42  60  52  51  51  50  58  52  49  57
Bush	 55  51  57  40  48  48  47  48  40  43  49  41

Update 2: These numbers have pretty well been debunked as either heavily slanted towards female voters or just plain fiction. Check The Corner for more real time updates. Drudge is reporting 1% spreads in the battleground states. All numbers except counted votes should be viewed as highly suspect!


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Listed below are links to weblogs that reference All Sides Agree - Early Exit Polls Are Crap:

» The LLama Butchers linked with LIVE LLAMA BLOGGING--Election Day 2004!

» bLogicus linked with Can You Trust Exit Polls?

Comments (6)

Amazingly so...the Dow drop... (Below threshold)
Steve:

Amazingly so...the Dow dropped high from high 70's to negative on this news....who do you think the market wants to win!!!!!!!!!!

Those numbers are from VNS,... (Below threshold)

Those numbers are from VNS, the organization that screwed up Florida's early results 4 years ago. We shouldn't be dignifying them with a posting, as they are about as reliable as Dan Rather's memos.

Uh... PA with a 20 point ke... (Below threshold)
Ryan Frank:

Uh... PA with a 20 point kerry lead, that ALONE should tell you that something aint kosher with these numbers

I believe the MSM will do s... (Below threshold)
Jim:

I believe the MSM will do something during the course of the day with phony exit polls in order to help their boy John Kerry. The idea is to get GOP voters to believe they're defeated. Besides, who's voting during the day? Unemployed, welfare recipients, retired folks worried that Bush is going to take away their social security, rabid moonbats, Kool Aiders and miscellaneous wackjobs. In the evening is when you get votes cast by people who actually have to work for a living.

- We all repeat the same ti... (Below threshold)

- We all repeat the same time honored saws in each new election cycle. Namely that polls are awash with enumerable deficiencies. But we follow them anyway. Why...Because it gives us something to do other than scratching our butts while we wait for the true vote count to run, skip, hurl, stagger, limp, crawl across the finish line.

- America is big. That cause's the two most mentioned annoyances of polling. The time difference voting overlap, and the "exit" poll that may cause some of the late voters to blow it off thinking it won't matter. This time around, since the country is so divided and emotionally involved, with a war looming over the festivities, both of those aspects should be less important than usual...

- Generally speaking a high voter turnout is thought to favor the Dem nominee. In this case it might be just the opposite because of the other factors. Either way, its the vote and EC in the end that really matters....

Hunter, LMAO. You're right.... (Below threshold)
Jim:

Hunter, LMAO. You're right. I'd be scratching my butt right now if it wasn't for WizBang.




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