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The minority report

One thing that struck me when President Bush nominated Condoleezza Rice to serve as Secretary of State was that this was quite possibly the first time a non-white-male had been that close to the presidency. According to the Presidential Succession Act of 1947, the line goes from Vice President to Speaker of the House to President Pro Tempore of the Senate and then through the Cabinet officers, in order of establishment, from Secretary of State through Secretary of Homeland Security.

It is true that there has been a woman (Madeline Albright under Clinton) as Secretary of State, it wasn't until President Bush appointed Colin Powell that a black man had come that close to the presidency. And now a black woman will be four heartbeats (one of them the occasionally-irregular heartbeat of Dick Cheney) from the Oval Office.

Several years ago, while talking with friends, I predicted that the first non-white male to serve as president would be a Republican. The far right wing still has occasional instances of bigotry, and no liberal black or woman (let alone a black woman) will overcome all those factors combined. But a lot of conservatives will rally behind a minority, choosing to embrace their principles and not their appearances. I suspect that's part of the reason why Democrats have been so reluctant to put up anything but white men.

I'll even go out on a limb and make a prediction. By 2016 the Republican nominee for either president or vice-president will not be a white male. And the United States will have a minority president or veep by 2024.

Any takers?

J.


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Comments (16)

I have predicted much the s... (Below threshold)

I have predicted much the same. Heck, I have periodically posted "Condi for President" remarks since I started blogging.

I see the Republicans as less prejudiced than Democrats, overall. Between that and any urge to go in their faces with a quashing of the opposite perception , and simply that fact that we're heading that way inevitably, it won't be long.

Overall, people in this country typically Just Don't Care anymore about race or sex over competence and character. The more time passes, the more the younger generations are in charge, the more this is true. Increasingly, racism and sexism is in the form of alleged advocacy groups, who are the only ones caring anymore, because a loss of the need for advocacy or victimhood represents a loss of power for them.

2008 Condi, VP. Early 2006... (Below threshold)
Headzero:

2008 Condi, VP. Early 2006 Cheney will have heart trouble / stess / flu with long hospitalization -whatever. Causing him to rule out running in 2008 (like he hasn't already). McCain runs, brings along Condi as VP and you would see a landslide like Regan/Mondale.

McCain is ready, Condi is being prepped now for moving up to VP. Open race on either side and McCain would be the strongest candidate that either side could put forward - besides, the Democrats are going to have to have a good 8 year build, concentrate on local and state elections, and try to get a majority back in the House and Senate before they should try to tackle the Whitehouse again. They need to get focused, get the right candidate that has a strong, clear message, a background that suits the presidency (say a Governer) and learning how to bring the disenchanted left back from the brink of apologizing, anti-jebusland, successionist minded, conspiracy theorist state-of-being and turn them back into normal Democrats - its that or treat them like zombies and there is only one way to fix a zombie.........

Not that the Republicans don't have their own house cleaning to do, but much of that will take place (and help solve some of the Democrats perceived dillemas) just by the current administration going away.

The left wing has some inst... (Below threshold)

The left wing has some instances of bigotry, too, Jay Tea.

I think the time line is closer: 2012 and 2016.

I can think of a million other people to be VP than Rice, especially, as SecState, she still will have W's ear.

If Cheney were to step down, which I don't think will happen....

How about we don't care? I ... (Below threshold)

How about we don't care? I couldn't care less if the leader of the free world has a vagina nor do I care if their skin is any particular color. All I care about is how they will run their administration and that's all I'm going to focus on.

Putting anyone in any job based on their genitalia or skin color is just as wrong as denying them the job for the same reasons.

As a pure matter of logic, ... (Below threshold)
Tig:

As a pure matter of logic, your established set of non-white-males includes all humans who are not male, i.e. Madeline Albright, and all humans who are not white, i.e. Colin Powell.

Sharp as a Marble, who said... (Below threshold)
KJC:

Sharp as a Marble, who said anything about putting anyone in office BECAUSE of gender or skin color?

Simply observing that we might soon see a woman and/or non-white candidate is just that, an observation. What's wrong with that?

Unlike Madeline Albright (w... (Below threshold)

Unlike Madeline Albright (who was born in what was then known as Czechoslovakia), Condi Rice is also eligible to become president.

I think it is likely that Rice will appear on the GOP ticket by or before 2016. Consequently, the Democrats will also have a minority nominee to respond, so yes, I agree that by 2024, the President or Vice-President will be a non-white male.

It's what's in their head t... (Below threshold)
opine6:

It's what's in their head that counts. Who cares what shade their skin is, or what their gender is? We need smart people to lead this country through some pretty tough times ahead.

Totally unsubstantiated opi... (Below threshold)
LB:

Totally unsubstantiated opinion: I think we'll see a black president or vp before we'll ever see a woman.

That is, a black man as pre... (Below threshold)
LB:

That is, a black man as president or vp.

Sharp as a Marble"ba... (Below threshold)
Henry:

Sharp as a Marble
"based on their genitalia or skin color"

Don't you mean gender?

shit I haven't laughed like that in ages.

I agree as to today's GOP b... (Below threshold)
-S-:

I agree as to today's GOP being a far more ACTUAL progressive, in the truest sense of that word and not in the trendy use of it, party, the actual inclusive 'think' in Western politics, and that applies to race and gender -- such that, race and gender aren't the issues for consideration, while doing the/a job is, contrary to what Democrats barbarically continue to harp on about (race and gender and rich and poor, grand issues of prejudice).

I tend to think that what Democrats have planned for 2008 is Hillary Clinton and Obama as a ticket with Howard Dean making their case.

It would be interesting to see Condoleezza Rice run for the Presidency opposite Hillary Clinton, with Clinton's V.P. as Obama.

Or, Condoleezza Rice as V.P. and ________ as GOP Presidential nominee/candidate for the Presidency. I still think it's a liklihood that Schwarzenegger would run but he has major handicaps in policy and position (and marriage) for the Republican Presidency as consideration as candidate and that is that he has liberal positions as does Guiliani (both of them will have issues to many conservatives because of those positions, also). And, with his wife, I just can't seen conservatives voting for Schwarzenegger in huge numbers unless he makes severe personal changes and/or counterbalances his liberalism with a conservative like Condoleezza Rice.

She's an excellent leader and academic and the Democrats have no peer for her abilities. She'd make a fine, if not excellent, President, and I tend to think that we'll have a "black" female President in Condoleezza Rice before there is a male counterpart, despite the Democrats trying to go with Obama as that (he isn't her counterpart but he's popular with Democrats for other reasons, reasons of the DNC sort, so he doesn't have broad appeal outside Democrat base that already exists, while Condoleezza Rice does have broad appeal).

I'd vote for her for the Presidency --- Condoleezza Rice -- and probably will.

Not McCain / Rice in 2008, ... (Below threshold)
Lloyd:

Not McCain / Rice in 2008, but Giuliani / Rice. No way will the majority of Republicans accept Keating 5 McCain. He won't win the nomination.

Bonus prediction -- the 2008 news media will be saying right up until the time that Giuliani takes the oath of office that the GOP doesn't stand a chance unless McCain is the nominee.

It's not that there's anyth... (Below threshold)

It's not that there's anything wrong with the observation, but I'd prefer not to even consider it as anything special. That's what makes us progressive - when we select people because of what's in their head, not what's between their legs or the pigment in their dermal layers.

It's the democrats who feel they need to point out a person's sex or race in order to score points. I'd like to think we're better than that.

Sharp as a Marble, you trie... (Below threshold)
KJC:

Sharp as a Marble, you tried to answer and then came full circle by impying that someone is trying to "score points."

Also, I must say you have the most unusual way of making the point about not caring about gender when in your two posts you have managed to say "vagina," "genitalia," and "between their legs." I don't think Jay Tea or anyone else here has harped on that factor quite like you have.

I do agree with your overall message, but you've got an odd way of delivering it in my opinion.

Rice/Martinez '08. <p... (Below threshold)

Rice/Martinez '08.

Please not Mr. "I go both ways in DC" and not the guy that got together with Kimba Wood and killed the Incredible Bread Machine.




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