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Exit Poll Postmortem

The evaluation of the 2004 presidential election exit polls, done by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International for the National Election Pool (NEP), is now available [PDF]. Gerry Daly has been analyzing the report, and finds that the initial reports seem to be misinterpreting the data.

It looks like the age of the exit poller was a primary factor in the oversampling of Kerry support. Whether the errors were intentional, or the product of pro-Kerry bias in that age group is open for debate.

Given the example of the cut and paste fiasco with the CBS report, I've gone ahead and created a webified version of the Edison/Mitofsky report here: http://wizbangblog.com/docs/nepeval/index.php. You can link to any page of the PDF by specifying it in the URL string. To link to the ninth page of the document, for example, you would use the following syntax:

http://wizbangblog.com/docs/nepeval/index.php?page=9


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Comments (2)

- "We plan to make enhancem... (Below threshold)

- "We plan to make enhancements to recruiting exit poll interviewers"....Well duuuuhhhhh

- How about disengaging from the DNC, including caucusing with Democratic eection committee's, and declaring and adhereing to a strict bi-partisan policy and operation... Think you guys can swing that?....

- This report admits they were gamed by the DNC, who overloaded exit polling spots with Kerry supporters, just as it had been reported in some media. Worse, I don't believe for a heart beat that the Edison people were "un-aware". In fact there were liberal hacks "bragging" about being tipped to the exact locations and numbers of exit polling places. Where is there any mention of that in the report?....

- This BS will never stop as long as the polling/survey operation is not strictly controlled....There is this unshackable belief ever since the Nixon administration, that juggling exit polls for one candidate or another can effect "late voting" and skew an election. Theres is not an infintesimal particle of evidence that theres any truth in that idea but it just won't die....

- These pinheads didn't help their image by holding that "What went wrong" meeting with the Democratic Election leadership shortly after...Do they think people are blind?...

- This report is a mass goobermumble. Their sole purpose in existing is to hold accurate polling and they can't even do that right. If I were FOX I'd look fo a new non-partisan source for polling....

I seem to remember a post a... (Below threshold)

I seem to remember a post at My Pet Jawa a day or two after the election that made this very point. All the exit pollers were drawn from students in social science classes. Pretty much a No, Duh? indicator of bias in hte pollsters which one would expect to tranlsate through to the results via simple selection bias.




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