Oleg Dulin has never been a fan of mine. In fact, the only times I can recall him commenting on my writings (either here on his own site) has been critically. I wouldn't exactly call him a pain in my butt, but more of a pimple -- unpleasant to behold, and occasionally annoying.
Our most recent disagreement has been about my recent discussion of the issue of "giving" self-esteem to schoolchildren. Oleg studiously ignored the main premise of my piece, instead focusing laser-like on a tossed-off wisecrack at the end. During that conversation, I called him an "ankle-biter," and I think I spotted a thread in my sock he managed to loosen in his ferocious attack.
Imagine my surprise when, Sunday evening, I received the following e-mail:
Jay:Not that I like to nitpick on people, but these guys have been pissing
me off for the past few weeks:http://peakoil.blogspot.com/2005/02/group-looks-to-educate-others-about.html
See how they calculate the amount of oil that goes into gasoline in
the first two paragraphs.
--
Regards,
Oleg Dulin
I sent back the following:
My first thought is that perhaps they're computing the
amount of petroleum needed to generate that much gasoline.My second thought is to wonder why you so publicly decry my reasoning abilities, then privately seek my counsel.
My third thought it that you have previously wasted any good will from me, and I feel no great compunction to do your homework for you.
I've given you one freebie, against my own better judgment. And I fully expect that, should that line of reasoning prove productive, my contribution will remain unacknowledged. I've never been greatly
impressed with the magnitude of your scruples and honesty.Nonetheless, there you have it -- my first "hunch" on explaining the discrepancy. Use it as you will.
I have absolutely no interest in any further developments on this matter.
J.
But my curiosity got the better of me. I went over to their site, and Oleg's own posting on it, and immediately saw the problem with Oleg's reasoning -- and it was much simpler than my first idea above.
Oleg's calculations differed from theirs by a factor of three. I then looked for a logical place for him to miss that calculation, and it immediately leaped out at me:
Herman Hughes drives his C.N. Brown tanker truck 300 to 350 miles a day, stopping three times, in separate trips, to unload his 8,000-gallon load of gasoline at service stations around the state.By the end of the week, Hughes' single tanker has pumped another 120,000 gallons of petroleum into the energy stream of America. In one year, that amounts to 6.2 million gallons - a scenario the Maine Oil Dealers Association said is typical.
8,000 gallons x 3 trips = 24,000 gallons/day.
24,000 gallons/day x 5 days = 120,000 gallons/week.
I find it strange that when Oleg had a problem, he didn't go to his regular buddies. He didn't reach out to the Resolutely Clueless Moron. He didn't ask Cousin Oliver Willis or Kos and his deranged, howling echo chamber. He instead went to one person whose analysis he has consistently criticized, derided, and mocked.
Perhaps in the future, Oleg should stick to math simple enough for him to figure out on his fingers. And he should work on consistency -- he shouldn't trash someone in public, then run to them for help in private. But I appreciate his recognition of my abilities -- even if it was purely accidental.
J.




Comments (11)
Damn you Jay Tea. You Repu... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Justin B | February 21, 2005 3:40 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Damn you Jay Tea. You Republicans think you are better than everyone else just because you know how to "multiply" and you are so evil as to reject the premise that teachers should build the self-esteem of children by telling them good job when they cannot figure out that 8,000x3x5=120,000. I think he did just fine. {pat on the head} I think his answer is just as good as yours and that he is a great person. Just because you are technically "right" does not mean that he also is not right even though his answer is not the same as yours and does not match this thing called "reality". How dare you try to injure his self esteem.
1. Posted by Justin B | February 21, 2005 3:40 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on February 21, 2005 15:40
2. Posted by lurker | February 21, 2005 3:41 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Look's like his site as crashed. Is this the first Wizalanche?
2. Posted by lurker | February 21, 2005 3:41 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on February 21, 2005 15:41
3. Posted by Randy Charles Morin | February 21, 2005 3:55 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Gotta love it when JT caves like a wet deck of cards :)
3. Posted by Randy Charles Morin | February 21, 2005 3:55 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on February 21, 2005 15:55
4. Posted by Paul | February 21, 2005 4:06 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Lurker-
No-- And it's called a Wizbanging.
4. Posted by Paul | February 21, 2005 4:06 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on February 21, 2005 16:06
5. Posted by Randy Charles Morin | February 21, 2005 4:24 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Paul, I thought it was called a Bushbanging ;)
5. Posted by Randy Charles Morin | February 21, 2005 4:24 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on February 21, 2005 16:24
6. Posted by bullwinkle | February 21, 2005 4:30 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Jdging from the left's reaction to the election multiplying isn't the only thing hard for them to do, counting seems to present them problems also.
6. Posted by bullwinkle | February 21, 2005 4:30 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on February 21, 2005 16:30
7. Posted by Oleg | February 21, 2005 8:25 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Fine, I made an error of overlooking a statement. The original article is still inaccurate because oil makes up for only 25% of gasoline. I can multiply just fine, Jay.
What I don't get is why do you think I am a left wing blogger ? Just about anything I said here on Wizbang and on my own site would indicate that I am pro-choice, pro-liberty, pro-rugged-individualism, and anti-government.
Here http://www.olegdulin.com/index.php/archives/category/politics/civil-liberties Or read my Social Security posts (http://www.olegdulin.com/index.php/archives/category/politics/social-security/)
If by liberal you mean classical liberal (libertarian), then I am guilty as charged. But I am not by any means a communist.
7. Posted by Oleg | February 21, 2005 8:25 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on February 21, 2005 20:25
8. Posted by Big Bang Hunter | February 21, 2005 10:03 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
- Well I'm certainly glad thats cleared up. Communists are issue challenged enough without having to deal with poor math skills.....
8. Posted by Big Bang Hunter | February 21, 2005 10:03 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on February 21, 2005 22:03
9. Posted by Raymond | February 21, 2005 11:28 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
"because oil makes up for only 25% of gasoline."
First, thats backwards, second, they chemically crack the denser components to get more napha.
so they get far more than gas for unit of oil than simple seperation will give you.
And there is even more complexity, anybodies cheapo plant can handle light sweet crude, but the plant that can handle the sour stuff like you get From Hugo Chaves, soon to be communist gulag land, requires special alloys like hasteloy or the stuff will eat thru the metal in the plant. making it more expensive.
One of the problems is called hydrogen embrittlement, that makes steel as brittle as glass. it will litterally shatter.
Leave a embrittled tool in the open air, and when the hydrogen leaches out it will start to rust again, and the metal will regain its stength.
Brittle metal is not desirable in a hi pressure cracking plant, not to mention the chemical etching, hence the need for the expensive alloys.
9. Posted by Raymond | February 21, 2005 11:28 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on February 21, 2005 23:28
10. Posted by julie | February 22, 2005 12:58 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Did you call him an embrittled tool ? Oh, your nasty! ;)
10. Posted by julie | February 22, 2005 12:58 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on February 22, 2005 12:58
11. Posted by Rick Fox | February 23, 2005 6:33 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
I have worked in the oil exploration industry for many years. A little facts behind the hype:
The world produces on average of 73-75 million barrels of oil a day. It uses between 70 & 77 million barrels a day. The fluctuation is higher on the weekends and lower on Mon - Wed.
World Oil Reserves stand at about 1 trillion barrels of oil.
By 2020 Iran and Venezuela will be dry. Mexico and Nigeria are next @ 2035. Russia and the US (at our current pumping volume) will be dry in 2045. Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait will be dry in 2085.
Most of the reserves found today are below 8 kilometers down. Texaco and Exxon are experimenting with really deep drilling (12-22 kilometer). However now it is not ecconomical to drill that deep.
It is predicted that gasoline will rise $1 every 5 years.
11. Posted by Rick Fox | February 23, 2005 6:33 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on February 23, 2005 18:33