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Jay Cost Busts the Myths for 2006

Jay Cost, formerly of the Horse Race Blog, has an important read about the 2006 election. Many people have been saying, some with quite a bit of glee, that the Republicans are in trouble this election cycle. Jay disagrees. In his most recent article at RealClearPolitcs, he busts the current myths that have been making their way around the blogosphere and mainstream media. Jay knows what he's talking about; his analysis for the 2004 presidential election was right on.

Here's a portion of his article:

The conventional wisdom has obviously congealed around the idea that the Republican Party is headed for trouble this November. Last week alone, I encountered nearly two dozen opinion pieces making the same argument. While I agree that the Republicans will lose seats in the House - probably about nine - I was also amazed at the reasons upon which so many professional pundits based their predictions. Many columnists seem downright naïve when it comes to congressional elections, content to repeat commonplace arguments without first checking if the facts fit the theories. In instance after instance, they do not. So many pundits last week were demonstrably wrong that, for the sake of sensible and prudent thinkers everywhere, a corrective is required.

Read the rest of it.


Comments (9)

Excellent article. It neve... (Below threshold)
Omni:

Excellent article. It never ceases to amaze me how the Democrats, who try to portray themselves as intellectually superior, remain consistently unable to grasp basic concepts like "incumbents almost always win"... and "Americans don't like or trust intellectuals."

Omni

That reading assignment sho... (Below threshold)
bryanD:

That reading assignment should have come with a "Caution: Eye-Crossing Zone" attached to the link. Or "Warning: This Guy Really Really REALLY Likes to Type!"

Maybe a long article, but n... (Below threshold)

Maybe a long article, but not too many wasted words.

I closely followed his 2004... (Below threshold)
JohnMc:

I closely followed his 2004 election blog and this guy predicted a virtual dead on bull's-eye in the final outcome. He was great at blowing apart the bogus polls (Zogby) and telling everyone which ones to keep and eye on. I believe he has an extensive background in political polling and statistics. When everyone was nervous in 2004, he clearly and precisely kept saying "don't worry" and "here's why".

Keep an eye on his posts. You'll sleep better at night.

The Democrats and some Repu... (Below threshold)
lakestate:

The Democrats and some Republicans seem to base much of their "predictions" on the MSM polls. The '04 election proves that the MSM polls weren't real accurate (even the exit polls were flawed.) Most people don't take into account the fact that most major polls are weighted one way or the other and that many people that are polled - don't vote - especially in the mid-term elections. Many people that do vote take the easy way out by voting for the incumbent because they really don't know the candidate. I think Jay has a more realistic approach to his projections and it shows. His projections aren't based on "wishful thinking" as the MSMs are. The MSM thinks most American voters are stupid and vote according to their polls - therefore they spin their polls to fit their preferences.

Hmmm.IMHO, and thi... (Below threshold)
ed:

Hmmm.

IMHO, and this is just speculation and opinion btw, I think the Republicans would be in real trouble this year except there is an incipient civil war brewing within the Democratic party between the Ultra-Left and the Left.

There is a similar struggle going on in the Right, between conservatives and moderates, except it's less antagonistic and more passive.

I see the Ultra-Left trying to take control of the party to give it the necessary two years to ramp up operations for the 2008 elections. Waiting until the 2008 elections would be suicide so the 2006 election cycle is critical for whomever does take control over the Democratic party.

*shrug* we'll see I guess.

To ed,I know ... (Below threshold)
JohnMc:

To ed,
I know you're entitled to your opinion, and everyone has one, but for you to categorize Jay Cost's post as "speculation" and "opinion" only shows how ignorant you are of his analysis of political races.

I encourage you and anyone else to read his original blog about the 2004 election http://jaycost.blogspot.com/ in order for you to understand how he thinks and gathers his data. This guy really knows how to separate the wheat from the chaff.

His posts are lengthy, but necessary in order for the reader to understand how he is analyzing the data and what it is really saying.

Hmmmm.I k... (Below threshold)
ed:

Hmmmm.

I know you're entitled to your opinion, and everyone has one, but for you to categorize Jay Cost's post as "speculation" and "opinion" only shows how ignorant you are of his analysis of political races.

Reading comprehension is a beautiful thing.

I was referencing MY opinion.

IMHO, and this is just speculation and opinion btw, I think the Republicans would be in real trouble this year except there is an incipient civil war brewing within the Democratic party between the Ultra-Left and the Left.


As in the:

, and this is just speculation and opinion btw,

References the rest of the sentence which is:

I think the Republicans would be in real trouble this year except there is an incipient civil war brewing within the Democratic party between the Ultra-Left and the Left.

Read. Comprehend. Learn. Or don't. Your choice.

ANOTHER SICK, TWISTED REPUB... (Below threshold)
benitto:

ANOTHER SICK, TWISTED REPUBLICAN GOES DOWN. READ ON.....

BUSH AIDE ADMITS TO FRAUD
Tuesday, March 14, 2006; Posted: 12:03 p.m. EST (17:03 GMT)

ROCKVILLE, Maryland (AP) -- A former top White House aide who was arrested on a theft charge admitted to a store investigator he fraudulently returned merchandise that he didn't buy, according to charging documents.

Police allege that Claude Allen, a former domestic policy adviser to President Bush, made fraudulent returns worth at least $5,000 at Target and other stores in the Washington suburbs on 25 different occasions.

Target Corp. investigator Pete Schomburg said he stopped Allen on January 2 outside the company's Gaithersburg store after Allen allegedly received a refund for items using a receipt from an earlier purchase.

"Allen had receipts from previous purchases at Target stores and admitted to Agent Schomburg that he was committing fraudulent returns," according to the charging documents filed March 7, two days before Allen was charged with theft and theft scheme.

Allen's lawyer, Mallon Snyder, has denied the charges, saying they are a result of problems with Allen's credit cards. Snyder said Tuesday he did not have any comment on the charging documents, first reported Tuesday by The Washington Post.

Allen, 45, is scheduled to go on trial April 27.

Police initially charged Allen with a misdemeanor, a charge that was dropped Thursday when he appeared in court. Later that day, however, he was arrested and charged with the more serious charges of theft and theft scheme over $500. Each count carries a possible prison sentence of 15 years.

Allen resigned in February from the $161,000-a-year job, saying he wanted to spend more time with his family. The alleged crimes occurred while he was working at the White House.

White House officials said Allen notified chief of staff Andy Card the night of the January 2 incident but told Card it was a misunderstanding. Bush was informed of the incident and Allen's planned departure in February. On Saturday, Bush said it would be "deeply disappointing" if Allen had not told the White House the truth about what happened.

According to authorities, Allen would buy items and take them to his car, then return to the store, pick up identical items from store shelves and take them to the return desk, presenting his original receipt.




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