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Global Warming Story Fisks Itself

Talk about Chicken Little...

Study Says Earth's Temp at 400-Year High

The Earth is the hottest it has been in at least 400 years, probably even longer. The National Academy of Sciences, reaching that conclusion in a broad review of scientific work requested by Congress, reported Thursday that the "recent warmth is unprecedented for at least the last 400 years and potentially the last several millennia."

Let's look at what the headline should say: "Earth's Temp Nothing New"

If we just "learned" that the earth has been this warm in the past -and we lived thru it- shouldn't that be good news?


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Comments (38)

"The scientists said they h... (Below threshold)

"The scientists said they had less confidence in the evidence of temperatures before 1600. But they considered it reliable enough to conclude there were sharp spikes in carbon dioxide and methane, the two major "greenhouse" gases blamed for trapping heat in the atmosphere, beginning in the 20th century, after remaining fairly level for 12,000 years."

In other words, they are sure about the data for the last 400 years, and we are definitely warmer than any time in that period, but are less sure of the data before 1600.

I suppose We can conclude t... (Below threshold)
914:

I suppose We can conclude that it was markedly cooler for a few years after Krakatoa and Versuivius blew their respective tops too.
To much of this stuff nowadays is driven by funding and political leanings, which is to say tainted.

Hmmmm...if global warming i... (Below threshold)
engineer:

Hmmmm...if global warming is the highest in the last four hundred to a thousand years or more, and humans are responsible for the great increases in the 20th century, then what was responsible for the earlier increases? And the decrease between 400 years ago and today? We have had an increase in population, the world should have kept getting warmer.

Furthermore, just measuring the amount of greenhouse gases doesn't necessarily equate to increased temperature, or else how was it warmer 400 to 1,000 years ago, if the greenhouse gases remained level?

Methinks, ...no, meknows, this is a very inexact science.


Paul-I read the enti... (Below threshold)
Mac:

Paul-
I read the entire article twice and am missing how the article fisks itself. Can you enlighten us?
I can't at all draw the same conclusions you've come to, based upon the information in this article. Maybe you are also drawing on other sources that we don't know about?

914-
A lot of reporting is driven by political leanings and that works both ways--including the dismissing of global warming as hysteria from the left.

If we just "learned" tha... (Below threshold)
mantis:

If we just "learned" that the earth has been this warm in the past -and we lived thru it- shouldn't that be good news?

Well that depends on how warm it gets this time, doesn't it?

Climate is changing all ove... (Below threshold)
SJBill:

Climate is changing all over the place, even on Mars and Jupiter. Polar caps are shrinking on Mars. Global scale sandstorms shroud the landscape.

Change is occurring on Jupiter as well -- the Jovian atmosphere is seeing new storms forming. Maybe we'll start naming storms there.

Why are none of these ex-spurts talking that we have seen epochs of global freezing not too many millenia ago, and we are still on the recovery path to normal warmer climates? Also, why are they not citing the variablity of our near by star that is the likely cause of all the change.

Our climate ex-spurts and gerbilsists are driven by their agendae on this issue as all their others.

Face it. Real climatologists are not buying into this garbage.

BTW, we are expecting another scorcher here in San Jose. Hot weather occurs here every year, in Summer.

Lee The same way Y... (Below threshold)
914:

Lee

The same way You read 500 shells found are nothing new..

So the Earth was once as ho... (Below threshold)
Jonas Planck:

So the Earth was once as hot as it is now? And I suppose these 400 year old global temperature readings were conducted by the Spanish Armada?

But we SURVIVED! So what's to worry about? We also survived smallpox, polio, anthrax, and the Black Death, but that doesn't seem to stop anyone from panicking about bio-terrorism. Why should my tax dollars be spent on a nonexistant threat like Pestilence? Clearly it's all a bunch of neo-Federalist gloom and doom designed to funnel public money into pharmaceutical and security companies.

If you "can't afford to take the chance" that some Arab somewhere has a vial of germs, why then is it safe to assume that climactic change is harmless? Is it because there's no money to be made trying to stop it? I think so.

The problem is that the sup... (Below threshold)
Faith+1:

The problem is that the supposed "proof" that temps have spiked in the last 150 years are based on the Mann report----the one that has been debunked that the "hockey stick" result in their study is a result more of their data filtering methods rather than the actual data.

Those "top climate scientists" Lee loves to quote also lots of "top climate scientists" thinking they are full of bunk in saying it is caused by humans.

ABC news is asking for peop... (Below threshold)
VagaBond:

ABC news is asking for people to email them evidence of global warming.

Well, I just saw a squirrel in a tree fanning his nuts....

What is missing so far is a... (Below threshold)
Big D:

What is missing so far is a sense of scale - scale of the problem, scale of the solution.

The science so far seems to indicate that the Earth is warming (this is less certain than Gore would have you think). The cause is unclear, but it may be anthropogentic increases in carbon dioxide. Fair enough.

Now, the down side. If the Earth is warming, and if carbon dioxide is the culprit, there is very little we can realistically do about it. It is practically impossible to cease industrial carbon dioxide emissions and maintain our current technological level and population. The already elevated carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is likely to persist for hundreds if not thousands of years. Even if the U.S. and Europe were to change, rapidly industrializing societies will more than take up the slack. That is why Kyoto was a farce.

I fervently hope the global warming alarmists are wrong...they might well be wrong. But it should be recognized that if they are right there is nothing that can be done at this point.

Hmmm, I seem to remember gr... (Below threshold)
scsiwuzzy:

Hmmm, I seem to remember grapes used to grow in parts of northern Europe where it is currently too cold for them to grow now...
What made the temp drop last millenia?

Gee, I wonder why they sudd... (Below threshold)
kbiel:

Gee, I wonder why they suddenly become suspicious of climate evidence before the Maunder Minimum/Little Ice Age. Could it be because they are having a hard time accounting for the Medieval Warm Period? That's especially interesting since the Medieval Warm Period coincided with The Renaissance when Europeans started making huge scientific strides and began exploring the world. As part of their exploration, by wind powered ships, Captains kept detailed logs of water temperatures, air temperatures, sea currents, et cetera to help navigation. But, I'm sure those Medieval Europeans were much less accurate than say 17th century observers who were freezing their asses off.

They are NOT NOT NOT saying... (Below threshold)

They are NOT NOT NOT saying the Earth was this hot 400 years ago.

What they are saying is that the data they have goes back 400 years reliably. Before that, they aren't as sure.

In other words its all a gu... (Below threshold)
914:

In other words its all a guessing game. climate is by its nature (no pun intended) changing continually..I remember some 25 years ago scientists saying we were heading into another ice age. B.S. then it was the oceans would be destroyed in 20 years, more B.S. They know no more about this then Joe sixpack. If there is a warm up it is likely caused by Solar activity and nothing Man does..

Two problems here: <... (Below threshold)

Two problems here:

1) While we know CO2 levels have increased recently and combustion of wood, coal, oil and gas by humans has contributed to CO2 production dramatically, we still don't know if it is causing climatic warming, or warming is exacerbating the rise in CO2, if the two are totally unrelated to each other, or if they are exacerbating each other.

2) Climate is changing, but rather than arguing about what is causing it, or how to reverse these causes before we know exactly what effects our attempts at change might have, I think we would better spend our time considering how to position civilization to handle the inevitable changes in climate, warm or cold, as well as geologic activity, and even threats from cosmic debris that could threaten our world.

Our human attempts at affecting the environment in the past, though well intentioned, have had significant effects on our ecosystems. I shudder to think of what disasters might be caused by our well-intentioned attempts to limit carbon emissions. While I don't agree with everything Big D posted, I certainly agree that it seems likely that in the long run, emissions from developing countries like China will negate whatever reductions Western countries effect. Based on the compliance rate of other world treaties regarding weapons or economics, is there any reason to expect that Kyoto, even if approved by the US, would have universal compliance?

<a href="http://powerlinebl... (Below threshold)
jp:

http://powerlineblog.com/archives/014469.php
This is what I submitted to ABC:

"My plan to reduce carbon-dioxide is to convince enough concerned humans to stop breathing for an extended period of time. You see when we exhale we release the evil Carbon-Dioxide into the air. Over the last century and a half, with the rise of Capitalism and the Industrial Revolution we were able to increase world population from around 1 billion to 5 billion...this is obviously the source of excessive carbon emissions and "climate change". So my plan is for all humans who beleive in Global Warming to simply hold their breathe on Earth day, especially those concerned in the media. This should solve our "Global Warming" or "Global Cooling" problems."

Face it. Real climatolog... (Below threshold)
sean nyc/aa:

Face it. Real climatologists are not buying into this garbage. SJBill

OK. Real climatoligists aren't in NASA then.

But it should be recognized that if they are right there is nothing that can be done at this point. Big D

Too hard to try, so why bother? Great attitude to have when talking about the future of the mankind on the planet.

I shudder to think of what disasters might be caused by our well-intentioned attempts to limit carbon emissions. epador

like what? that exxon might not make another $36 billion in profits next year?

emissions from developing countries like China will negate whatever reductions Western countries effect. epador

since they're doing it, we can too. yes, China will increase their emissions, but if we are able to reduce our own and come up with more efficient and new techologies, it will benefit everyone and we'll be able to persuade China to do the same. America should be the leading the world in this effort, not looking for excuses.

then it was the oceans would be destroyed in 20 years, more B.S. 914

yea, cause the dead zone off the coast of Louisiana is completely healthy. granted, the entire ocean is not dead, but overfishing and pollution certainly are not helping.
------

As much as you might try to deny it, humans can and do have an impact on the environment. How much of an impact is up for debate. But as we gradually increase or population, industry, and energy consumption, that effect is more and more profound. If we don't start now, Big D may be right and one day soon it could be too late.

FoxNews had an excellent do... (Below threshold)
jp:

FoxNews had an excellent documentary on this about a month ago and the long history...the media for the last century has flip flopped from calling it "Global cooling" to "global warming" 4 times as the weather and wind changes on them.....this is nothing more than a marxist movement to bring business to its knees.

"Fire and ICE" report on th... (Below threshold)
jp:

"Fire and ICE" report on the Global Warming scam documented by the media
http://www.businessandmedia.org/specialreports/2006/fireandice/fireandice.asp

<a href="http://www.cfa.har... (Below threshold)
jp:

http://www.cfa.harvard.edu/press/pr0310.html

March 31, 2003

20th Century Climate Not So Hot
Cambridge, MA - A review of more than 200 climate studies led by researchers at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics has determined that the 20th century is neither the warmest century nor the century with the most extreme weather of the past 1000 years. The review also confirmed that the Medieval Warm Period of 800 to 1300 A.D. and the Little Ice Age of 1300 to 1900 A.D. were worldwide phenomena not limited to the European and North American continents. While 20th century temperatures are much higher than in the Little Ice Age period, many parts of the world show the medieval warmth to be greater than that of the 20th century.

Smithsonian astronomers Willie Soon and Sallie Baliunas, with co-authors Craig Idso and Sherwood Idso (Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change) and David Legates (Center for Climatic Research, University of Delaware), compiled and examined results from more than 240 research papers published by thousands of researchers over the past four decades. Their report, covering a multitude of geophysical and biological climate indicators, provides a detailed look at climate changes that occurred in different regions around the world over the last 1000 years.

"Many true research advances in reconstructing ancient climates have occurred over the past two decades," Soon says, "so we felt it was time to pull together a large sample of recent studies from the last 5-10 years and look for patterns of variability and change. In fact, clear patterns did emerge showing that regions worldwide experienced the highs of the Medieval Warm Period and lows of the Little Ice Age, and that 20th century temperatures are generally cooler than during the medieval warmth."

Soon and his colleagues concluded that the 20th century is neither the warmest century over the last 1000 years, nor is it the most extreme. Their findings about the pattern of historical climate variations will help make computer climate models simulate both natural and man-made changes more accurately, and lead to better climate forecasts especially on local and regional levels. This is especially true in simulations on timescales ranging from several decades to a century.

Historical Cold, Warm Periods Verified

Studying climate change is challenging for a number of reasons, not the least of which is the bewildering variety of climate indicators - all sensitive to different climatic variables, and each operating on slightly overlapping yet distinct scales of space and time. For example, tree ring studies can yield yearly records of temperature and precipitation trends, while glacier ice cores record those variables over longer time scales of several decades to a century.

Soon, Baliunas and colleagues analyzed numerous climate indicators including: borehole data; cultural data; glacier advances or retreats; geomorphology; isotopic analysis from lake sediments or ice cores, tree or peat celluloses (carbohydrates), corals, stalagmite or biological fossils; net ice accumulation rate, including dust or chemical counts; lake fossils and sediments; river sediments; melt layers in ice cores; phenological (recurring natural phenomena in relation to climate) and paleontological fossils; pollen; seafloor sediments; luminescent analysis; tree ring growth, including either ring width or maximum late-wood density; and shifting tree line positions plus tree stumps in lakes, marshes and streams.

"Like forensic detectives, we assembled these series of clues in order to answer a specific question about local and regional climate change: Is there evidence for notable climatic anomalies during particular time periods over the past 1000 years?" Soon says. "The cumulative evidence showed that such anomalies did exist."

The worldwide range of climate records confirmed two significant climate periods in the last thousand years, the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warm Period. The climatic notion of a Little Ice Age interval from 1300 to1900 A.D. and a Medieval Warm Period from 800 to 1300 A.D. appears to be rather well-confirmed and wide-spread, despite some differences from one region to another as measured by other climatic variables like precipitation, drought cycles, or glacier advances and retreats.

"For a long time, researchers have possessed anecdotal evidence supporting the existence of these climate extremes," Baliunas says. "For example, the Vikings established colonies in Greenland at the beginning of the second millennium that died out several hundred years later when the climate turned colder. And in England, vineyards had flourished during the medieval warmth. Now, we have an accumulation of objective data to back up these cultural indicators."

The different indicators provided clear evidence for a warm period in the Middle Ages. Tree ring summer temperatures showed a warm interval from 950 A.D. to 1100 A.D. in the northern high latitude zones, which corresponds to the "Medieval Warm Period." Another database of tree growth from 14 different locations over 30-70 degrees north latitude showed a similar early warm period. Many parts of the world show the medieval warmth to be greater than that of the 20th century.

The study - funded by NASA, the Air Force Office of Scientific Research, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the American Petroleum Institute - will be published in the Energy and Environment journal. A shorter paper by Soon and Baliunas appeared in the January 31, 2003 issue of the Climate Research journal.

So who was driving the SUVs... (Below threshold)
DOUG BOOK:

So who was driving the SUVs and running the air conditioners in 1600? Perhaps we can put Mapes and Rather on the story for old times sake.

Isn't this a bitch. We can... (Below threshold)
moseby:

Isn't this a bitch. We can all see that this global warming horsecrap has "legs", right? To make thing worse, that retard, al gore, goes and sews his face to its ass.

Don't mention stop breathin... (Below threshold)
VagaBond:

Don't mention stop breathing! The next thing to come out will be Soylent Green...

Sean Seeing as Hum... (Below threshold)
914:

Sean

Seeing as Human beings at 6 billion total world pop est. could stand body to body in a square area roughly 25x25 sq. miles, I think it highly doubtful that We can outfish the Oceans which surface area alone makes up 75% of the worlds surface. the state I live in is 80,000 sq.miles alone just for perspective. I think the fish have us outnumbered buddy.

but I need to say that glob... (Below threshold)
professor dipshit:

but I need to say that global warming is real...I need my grant money...

914<a href="http:/... (Below threshold)
sean nyc/aa:

914

Too many people chase too few fish

Fish catch has fallen worldwide since the late 1980s

and

Overfishing is Emptying World's Rivers, Lakes, Experts Warn

now again, I'm not saying the oceans are dead. but catch volumes are down, large fish such as marlin and swordfish are rare, and trawling, which scrapes the ocean floor, destroy coral reefs rich in biodiversity and threaten breeding areas. Not to mention the use of radar which can track schools of fish more effectively than ever.

I think you'd be surprised at the effect a 25x25 sq. mile clump of humanity can have. After all, fish are not just caught for humans to eat, but also as animal feed, fertilizer, and some even provide forms of oils.

SeanGot it.... (Below threshold)
914:

Sean

Got it.

All I know is this: Maine i... (Below threshold)
Candy:

All I know is this: Maine is damn cold, despite "global warming". The winter before last, it was soooo cold that a local apple orchard lost over 800 trees. They froze to death, literally.

An incredibly liberal teacher who is a colleague of mine keeps barking at us all to help save the earth - but she drives a Durango. I told her to come back and put us all in line when she's driving a hybrid. Or a bicycle. And quite frankly, all of that hot air she's spewing isn't helping out the temperature one bit.

Somebody outta give all the cows Beano and maybe they'll stop farting so much.

PaulYou are... (Below threshold)
mak44:

Paul

You are amazing.... you can make an asinine post w/ your head up your ass.

Hold on there, Jethro - the... (Below threshold)
Waffle King:

Hold on there, Jethro - the AP headline now says "Earth Hottest It's Been In 2000 Years". No hyperbole is too extreme, no fact truthful enough, to deter the AP writer in his quest for glory.

I blame the Christians.

It's also not a study. It'... (Below threshold)
Carrick:

It's also not a study. It's a report by a panel on a prior study by Mann, circa 2002, and not yet accepted by the climatology community as fact.

The question isn't what cau... (Below threshold)
Jeff:

The question isn't what caused the previous greenhouse gas build-up and resulting climate change, but how long did it take and, given the same conditions and consequences now, could our society survive them?

The Earth is billions of years old. It normally takes tens of thousands of years for the planet's climate to change naturally, resulting in mass extinctions and ice ages. Why would anyone sane want to exacerbate conditions that will cause the climate to change within the near future?

There is also the possibility that the last round of mass extinctions and climate changes were the result of something other than a natural, long-term change in the environment; perhaps a catastrophic impact or near-pass by an incredibly large, energetic, or otherwise destructive object. If that's the case, what kind of sense does it make to diliberately duplicate the sort of conditions that only occur when the planet is in the throws of some sort of cataclysm?

914, regarding your comment... (Below threshold)
Jeff:

914, regarding your comment about all 6 billion people on earth being able to fit into a 25x25 mile area:

Humanity's ecological footprint is a function not only of population but also of per capita consumption. As the global economy expands, the latter is increasing even more rapidly than the former. Each of these people consumes a great deal more than the plot of land they're standing on in your hypothetical situation. And that only counts resource consumption; what about waste products and "elbow room" (both of which are essential for the physical and psychological survival of our species)?

From allspecies.org:

"According to the Footprints of Nations the ecological foot print of one average American is 10.3 hectares or 25.45 acres. That is five city blocks plus about two lots (using 5 acre blocks divided into 24 lots). That is how much land it takes to supply all the energy, food, paper, building materials, and consumer goods to keep one average person living the life to which he or she has grown accustomed. By contrast the ecological footprint of average world citizen is 2.8 hectares or 6.92 acres. That is one city block plus about three lots. In India the average person uses about 1.98 acres. That means that about nine city lots supplies all that the average Indian survives on."

"If everyone on our planet used as many resources and created as much waste as the Average American, we would require four and two thirds Earths to sustain us."

Source: http://www.allspecies.org/neigh/nbrfootp.htm

When all this is taken into account, do you really think it's impossible for us to deplete the world's fisheries and consume all of its resources? Where will renewable resources likes fish spawn? What will they eat? Where will they deficate and urinate? Hopefully not in the same place they spawn!

Perhaps even more importantly - where will more non-renewable resources come from? I understand that we can extract oil from coal, but what happens when all the coal is used up? Chemistry and physics are one thing; alchemy is another.

MAK44What would be... (Below threshold)
jhow66:

MAK44

What would be amazing is if you could put your head up your ass. Putting one's head up his ass presents a problem when his "ass" is right below his nose.

When you consider who actua... (Below threshold)
moseby:

When you consider who actually is the spokesman for the "Global Warming Will Kill You" gang, you just gotta wonder if these dopes are serious.

al gore.

nuff said.

<a href="http://porkopol... (Below threshold) 914You excr... (Below threshold)
mak44:

914

You excreted; "Seeing as Human beings at 6 billion total world pop est. could stand body to body in a square area roughly 25x25 sq. miles, "

Where did you get that moronic statement? If you didn't just pull it out of your ass, was it from the Maharushee Meister of Bilge & Goebblesesque propaganda? Seems like I've heard that crap before barfed up by the Maharushee on one of his propaganda binges.




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