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Israel To Declare War Tonight?

Updated

That's what Carl in Jerusalem's sources are telling him:

One of my sources, Harvey in Efrat, claims to have it from 'reliable sources' that Israel is going to declare war tonight. Here's what Harvey is telling me (for the record, I have known Harvey for 35 years - we were roommates at a youth group convention in 1971, and his sources are generally from within the IDF and are usually reliable):


RUMORS FLYING THAT EHUD OLMERT WILL BE DECLARING WAR TONIGHT (2YEARS TOO LATE)?

3 DEAD IDF SOLDIERS IN THE NORTH, 2 IDF SOLDIERS KIDNAPPED, TRIPLE PRONGED ATTACK, KATYUSHA, TERRORISTS ON THE GROUND SHOOTING FREELY AT IDF OUTPOST, AND THEN CAPTURING 2 IDF SOLDIERS.

HEAVY FIGHTING GOING ON NOW..IAF KNOCKED OUT BRIDGES THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN LEBANON, IDF NAVY SHELLING BEIRUT SUBURBS,

IN GAZA, MOHAMMED DEIF, LEADER OF HAMAS, LOST OTHER LEG AND ARM, NOT DEAD YET FROM LAST NIGHT'S IAF AERIAL BOMBING ON A NON EMPTY BUILDING (RABBIS SAID ''SHEHACHAYINU" [the blessing one says on happy occasions. CiJ])

TZAV 8 [Order for general call up of reservists. CiJ] CALL UP OF RESERVES JUST ISSUED BY DEFENSE MINISTRY,

SHLOMI MOSHAV IN THE NORTH ALL CHILDREN AND PARENTS ARE IN THE BOMB SHELTERS,

IDF TANKS AND TROOPS HAVE CROSSED INTO LEBANON WHERE THEY LEFT 6YEARS AGO

IDF TANKS AND TROOPS HAVE CUT GAZA STRIP IN TO TWO SECTIONS AS IAF CONTINUES BOMBING

CENSORSHIP ON OTHER DETAILS NOW IN EFFECT BY IDF

Please note that 'officially' we have only been told that six soldiers and five civilians were wounded in the north this morning. The IDF waits to give official notice of deaths until it can notify families and release names.

This development is interesting in light of the Haaretz article in which Israel's UN Ambassador Dan Gillerman is quoted as saying that Israel would "'react in every way it deems necessary' to obtain the soldiers' release and protect its border and its people."

Update: Fox News reports that Israeli aircraft have struck targets far deeper into Lebanon than was expected. According to the AP, one target was only 10 miles away from Beirut:

BEIRUT, Lebanon (AP) -- Israeli warplanes and gunboats struck a Palestinian guerrilla base 10 miles south of Beirut late Wednesday, Lebanese security officials said, in the closest raid to the Lebanese capital since fighting erupted in southern Lebanon after guerrillas captured two Israeli soldiers.


Warplanes flew over the Naameh base in the hills overlooking the Mediterranean, about 10 miles (16 kilometers) south of Beirut. Gunboats sailed facing the position, and explosions rang out across the area.

The base is run by the Syrian-backed Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command and was a frequent target of Israeli attacks in the past.

The latest attack comes after Israeli warplanes pounded more than 30 targets in southern Lebanon and Israeli leaders promised Lebanon a painful response for the capture of the soldiers.

Update II: Allah at Hot Air links to DEBKA, which reports that Iran's national security advisor Ali Larijani is in Damascus for the duration of the attack so he can then claim that an attack on Syria is an attack on Iran. This is Syria's and Iran's status as explained in DEBKA:

The Syrian army has been put on a state of preparedness.


DEBKAfile's military sources add that the Iranian air force, missile units and navy are also on high alert.

DEBKAfile's counter-terror sources report Hizballah acted on orders from Tehran to open a second front against Israel, partly to ease IDF military pressure on the Hamas in the Gaza Strip. This was in response to an appeal Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal made to the Iranian ambassador to Damascus Mohammad Hassan Akhtari Sunday, July 9.

DEBKAfile's Iranian sources report Tehran's rationale as composed of three parts:

1. Iran shows the flag as a champion and defender of its ally, Hamas.

2. Sending Hizballah to open a warfront against Israel is the logical tactical complement to its latest order to go into action against American and British forces in southern Iraq.

3. Tehran hopes to hijack the agenda before the G-8 summit opening in St. Petersberg, Russia on July 15. Instead of discussing Iran's nuclear case and the situation in Iraq along the lines set by President George W. Bush, the leaders of the industrial nations will be forced to address the Middle East flare-up

Any Israeli decision taken at prime minister Ehud Olmert's high level consultation in Jerusalem Wednesday night must take this turn of events into account before deciding on limited air strikes against Hizballah and Lebanese civil targets without delay.

Our sources also report that immediately after Nasrallah's statement to the media, Hizballah's leaders went into hiding, their bases were evacuated and their fighting strength transferred to pre-planned places of concealment. Ahead of the abduction, Hizballah ordnance and missile stocks were transferred to the Palestinian Ahmed Jibril's tunnel system at Naama, 30 km south of Beirut, which was built in the 1980s by East German engineers.


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Comments (35)

Go Isreal! wipe all the scu... (Below threshold)
virgo1:

Go Isreal! wipe all the scum out!

They just had to push it, d... (Below threshold)

They just had to push it, didn't they? Take a hostage, demand a lot of prisoners be released - and then take a couple more hostages and demand more prisoners be released...

The Palestinains never fail to choose the course that won't get them what they want.

Damn.

I'd be shocked if they didn... (Below threshold)
Gmac:

I'd be shocked if they didn't.

The terrorists just stepped in it and if memory serves me right, Isreal is about to open a can of whuppass on them. Quite possibly Syria as well.

wasn't one of the prisoners... (Below threshold)
sean nyc/aa:

wasn't one of the prisoners kidnapped by hezbollah? the other by hamas? who will they be declaring war on? will the major offenses be into Gaza (already being done), lebanon (being done in a more limited way), syria, the west bank? a lot of unanswered questions still.

unless israel is very specific about who their enemy is and what they consider legitimate targets, this could have unintended consequences.

...this could have unint... (Below threshold)

...this could have unintended consequences

You understate it beautifully, Sean.

"Could". Made me smile. It was a black smile, but a smile nonetheless.


Who can say "biblical prophecies"?

Wouldn't this be a Israeli ... (Below threshold)
yetanotherjohn:

Wouldn't this be a Israeli national security leak? I suspect that they want to get the reservists in uniform before the announcement is made.

It is in vain, sir, to e... (Below threshold)
Justrand:

It is in vain, sir, to extenuate the matter. Gentlemen may cry, Peace, Peace-- but there is no peace. The war is actually begun! The next gale that sweeps from the north will bring to our ears the clash of resounding arms! Our brethren are already in the field! Why stand we here idle? What is it that gentlemen wish? What would they have? Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery? Forbid it, Almighty God! I know not what course others may take; but as for me, give me liberty or give me death!

Patrick Henry, March 23, 1775.

so how would you handle thi... (Below threshold)

so how would you handle this, sean?

Jews have a ritual in which... (Below threshold)

Jews have a ritual in which the question is asked: "why is this night different from all other nights?". Well, why is this round of "this is war!!!!" going to be any different from all the other times? Israel talks big, sends in some tanks, then lets itself be talked into backing off before the job is done by the world community whose support Israel craves but will never receive. this happened when Sharon moved into Lebanon in the 80s and it happened every time Israel decided to show Arafat who was boss. Not since 1973 has Israel gone far enough (when, by crossing the Suez, Israel brought enough pressure on Egypt so to force Egypt to cry uncle) to deal with the threat it faces... and unfortunately, although I really wish it weren't so, this time ain't going to be any different.

Steve - not so sure this ti... (Below threshold)

Steve - not so sure this time. Why? Because unless I've missed them, there haven't been the usual round of condemnations of Israel today. The EU and the US both spoke out against Hezbollah--but not against Israel. (Unless I missed the usual "please use 'restraint'" crapola.)

However...If Syria and Iran are behind egging on Hamas and hezbollah, then you might have something there.

correction - we're</b... (Below threshold)

correction - we're actually holding Iran and Syria responsible for stirring up Hezbollah. So I'm not certain Israel will back down.

steve sturm: "...why is ... (Below threshold)
Justrand:

steve sturm: "...why is this round of "this is war!!!!" going to be any different from all the other times?"

Well, for one thing, the last few times there was still a "Soviet Union" hanging around that the Syrians (et al) could run to.

For another, the last few times there was still a "United Nations" hanging around that had a shred of credibility. Yes, the U.N. is STILL hanging around...but they long ago cast off any pretense of "credibility".

If the IDF gets rolling this time they just might make their way all the way across the Bekka (ro Bekaa) Valley!! And what "secrets" might they find there, I wonder?

just one more great reason to help them out!!

WW III started in 1979. It'... (Below threshold)
Scrapiron:

WW III started in 1979. It's about time for the Western world to wake up and starts participating.
Right now we need to wipe Iran, Syria and Lebanon of the face of the earth. Maybe that would serve as a warning to the rest of the murdering Islamic world that we're tired of their BS. While we're at it, wipe out all locations of the terrorists organizaton CAIR and radical mosque's in the U.S. If you want to live in the America, become loyal americans.

justrand: I don't believe t... (Below threshold)

justrand: I don't believe the soviet union was ever going to go to war to save syria. and the UN had credibility? when? when they were passing anti-semitic resolutions? when they were inviting arafat to speak before the general assembly?

Big mo: there's been talk before about holding syria and iran responsible... but nothing has come of it. and, given what is going on with iran and their nukes, I wouldn't be surprised if at this very minute Rice is on the phone to the Israelis asking/demanding that they not 'complicate' the delicate situation with Iran.... just as Israel was expected to show restraint vis-a-vis the Palestinians so as to not complicate Bush's attempt to win support for invading iraq.

All in all, I have seen nothing to indicate that this time is going to be significantly different from the past. Israel shouldn't be sending tanks into Lebanon solely to search for their kidnapped soldier, they ought to be sending in the tanks to clear out the terrrorists and to build a buffer.

Steve - we'll see. We're al... (Below threshold)

Steve - we'll see. We're all just speculating right now.

The Arabs are in a pretty w... (Below threshold)
Mitchell:

The Arabs are in a pretty weak state in all of this. Iran is too far away and doesn't have nukes (yet). Syria can't go head to head with Israel's army. Egypt just wants it all to go away.

So, I think Israel has a free hand to make these limited incursions to protect it's citizens. I hope they move swiftly, and terribly.

The only currency that works with the Arabs is brute force. And, they always lose.

I hope Israel is not foolis... (Below threshold)
DOUG BOOK:

I hope Israel is not foolish enough to allow NY Times reporters in the country.

Israel has bent over backwa... (Below threshold)
MikeSC:

Israel has bent over backwards and been screwed for it time and time again.

I wish it didn't have to come to this --- but I'll say this: If Canada or Mexico regularly fired missiles into the US on a daily basis, we'd have wiped out either country decades ago.
-=Mike

JustrandIm sure th... (Below threshold)
virgo1:

Justrand

Im sure the Bekka valley will yield untold bountyies of nonexistent WMDs. The only question is? How will the Libs spin it?

thats "Bounties" sorry.... (Below threshold)
virgo1:

thats "Bounties" sorry.

steve sturm: "...why is thi... (Below threshold)
d_Brit:

steve sturm: "...why is this round of "this is war!!!!" going to be any different from all the other times?"

My thinking exactly. Time will tell whether we're right. If we are, american conservatives need to start looking at the Israeli's enabling of the Islamic terrorist groups.

It's odd - I'm not seeing i... (Below threshold)

It's odd - I'm not seeing in the news that ANYONE is suggesting Israel stop this time.

Could it be that the chattering media and political classes have realized the only thing that legitimizing, funding and excusing terror does is ensure there's MORE of it? And that, like it or not and no matter how sympathetic you are to the Palestinians and other head-hacking bastards in the area, you aren't going to get them to play nice with the other kids unless you get someone bigger, stronger, tougher, and meaner than they are to ram their heads into the wall and tell them they WILL abide by the rules of civilized countries or get their heads rammed into the wall again.

And it looks like Israel's gearing up to do just that.

(And what's with that "need to start looking at the Israeli's enabling of the Islamic terrorist groups" crap? You REALLY so out of touch with reality that you'd think they'd pay for Hamas to bomb them? (Then again - they HAVE shown remarkable forebearance. But that's on the order of 'Give them enough rope to hang themselves' with giving back Gaza.)

This will never be over unt... (Below threshold)
USMC Pilot:

This will never be over until one side wins. Might as well start right now.

Scrapiron I wish you weren'... (Below threshold)
jainphx:

Scrapiron I wish you weren't right about American Mosques,but you are .Hope we don't pay too high a price for our neglect.

Hopefully, they'll take Syr... (Below threshold)
The Listkeeper:

Hopefully, they'll take Syria all the way to the Iraqi border.

"(And what's with that "... (Below threshold)
d_Brit:

"(And what's with that "need to start looking at the Israeli's enabling of the Islamic terrorist groups" crap? You REALLY so out of touch with reality that you'd think they'd pay for Hamas to bomb them? (Then again - they HAVE shown remarkable forebearance. But that's on the order of 'Give them enough rope to hang themselves' with giving back Gaza.)"Posted by: jllawson

By 'enabling' I mean stopping before their enemies are completely defeated. I mean that in a fight, if you keep letting the other guy get up and 'tag team' another to fight for them while they recover, you'll never win.

I'm becoming convinced that's the pattern I see with Israel. I'm not suggesting American conservatives withdraw support, I'm saying we have to tell them publically to take the gloves off and treat this like what it is, a fight to the death.

"Hopefully, they'll take Sy... (Below threshold)
d_Brit:

"Hopefully, they'll take Syria all the way to the Iraqi border."Posted by: The Listkeeper

Only if Syria's stupid enough to attack. Unfortunately, that's unlikely.

But if it did happen, Israel taking it to the Syrians might be the very best thing that could happen. Iran might step in and declare war on Israel...:-)

The whole balance of power in the ME could change, and opportunity is always hidden within change.

The whole balance of power ... (Below threshold)
virgo1:

The whole balance of power in the middle east is the same as it has always been. In Gods favor..

"Hath not a Israeli's hands... (Below threshold)
Phil:

"Hath not a Israeli's hands, organs...affections, passions? Tickle us, do we not laugh? Prick us, do we not bleed? Wrong us, shall we not revenge?" (Merchant of Venice II i 56-63)

"Once more unto the breach, dear friends" (Henry V III i 1)

"Cry 'havoc!' and let slip the dogs of war" (Julius Caesar III i 274)

Jingoistic crap from people... (Below threshold)
John:

Jingoistic crap from people who understand fuck all about the situation.

As I tried saying last nigh... (Below threshold)

As I tried saying last night but couldn't, this episode has the distinct possibility of being more like 1973 than any of the previous mere border incursions and Infantifada uprisings.

Hamas was the proxy for patron Iraq; Iraq is no more and Hamas needs a new patron -- who better than Iraq's Baathist buddy Syria? Syria also puppet-strings Hezbollah, and the timing?? entirely suspect.

There's more than a little circumstantial evidence that Syria is behind the Hamas outpost attack. Israeli intel is better than ours, and one of the first things Israel did was buzz Assad's summer home on the Syrian coast. If Syria wasn't giving orders, then they were likely saying "y'know, it wouldn't hurt anything at all if you were to raid Isreal right about ... now."

Iran is also a patron of Hezbollah ... and notice how Ahmadinejad has been suddenly and uncharacteristically concilliatory on the nuke thing? The secular "president" of a theocracy does not carry an olive branch, no matter how small, unless
1] they just got their asses kicked, or
2] there's something up his other sleeve.

It's not #1, so I'm betting on #2.

D_Brit -Sorry - I ... (Below threshold)

D_Brit -

Sorry - I misunderstood. I agree with your point - they need to finish the fight this time instead of stopping.

J.

Maybe Ahmadinejad (sp? who ... (Below threshold)
Totally Matt:

Maybe Ahmadinejad (sp? who cares) just ran out of crack...?

He can't do anything without the direction and/or consent of the Ayatollah, right? Crazy though they may be, Iranian theocrats tend not to be flat-out stupid like Mahmoud clearly is. Don't you think they know what will happen if they can be directly connected to military action against Israel (as opposed to the small-scale attacks they've been supporting for who knows how long)?

Or was that your point?

He can't do anything wit... (Below threshold)

He can't do anything without the direction and/or consent of the Ayatollah, right

Ahmad- is "prez" at the pleasure of Khameini, yes.

Iranian theocrats tend not to be flat-out stupid like Mahmoud clearly is.

In one of the essays I put up on my site I quoted Khameini as claiming that the Danes drew their notorious cartoons in September of 2005 because they were upset that Hamas had won the Palestinian elections in January of 2006.

Yes, he was "exhorting the crowd", but I'm not so sure that the whole lot of them do not suffer from some sort of culturally-inspired cognitive dissonance. At the very least they don't know how to work a calendar.


Don't you think they know what will happen if they can be directly connected to military action against Israel

First, I don't think they care. You can presume all sorts of rationa-centric ideals upon world leaders all throughout history and it doesn't change things. "Hitler surely knew" what invading Russia 2 months late would do to his army ... didn't he?

"No" or "he didn't care" or "he risked it anyway" are the only options.

Second, I have a feeling that pan-islamist leaders are counting on internecine squabbling within the ranks of western societies. There's already a sizable chunk of westerners whose first sympathy goes to the pal-arabs and the last sympathy goes to the Israelis. Western nations may hold Syria and Iran responsible, and may even bluster and rattle a saber or two, but internal dissent in democracies tends to have a stultifying effect on foreign policy.

Witness the war in Iraq. Gung-holier-than-thou at first, then after a few casualties and the boredom sets in, we sound like kids in the back seat "are we there yet??", then after a few more casualties we get Cindy Sheehan; a few more, we get John Murtha.

They've got time; they count on us not willing to take our time, getting bored, getting sentimental.

I think the Ayatollahs have... (Below threshold)
Totally Matt:

I think the Ayatollahs have a stronger survival instinct than Hitler ever did, don't you?

Just clicked through to your blog for the first time, Ross, and as a long-time White Sox fan (a decade is a long time for a twenty-something-year-old), I demand that you take down that post. Because it's too funny. Too much funny constitutes hate speech. Don't ask me to explain why, because I'll sue you. =)




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