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Michael Barone: A Change in the Winds

Michael Barone has another interesting article today. He writes that recent world events have caused a shift in the political winds in favor of the Republicans:

Polls since the London arrests suggest what has been happening. Bush's job approval was up significantly in the Gallup Poll, usually the most volatile of national polls, and the Democratic margin in the generic question (Which party's candidate for the House would you vote for?) was sharply reduced. There was a similar trend in generic vote in the Rasmussen poll, which is ordinarily much less volatile than Gallup.


Connecticut polls showed Lieberman, running as an independent, ahead of Lamont, with Lamont having strikingly high negatives for a candidate with such limited public exposure. It seems to be a fact -- remember the Paul Wellstone funeral in 2002? -- that when most Americans see the hard left of the Democratic Party in action, they don't much like what they see.

Of course, they don't like to see violence in Iraq, either.

But the sectarian killings that flared up in Baghdad in June and July have been reduced -- by 30 percent, says ABC News -- by intensive patrolling by U.S. and, more importantly, Iraqi troops. It's not clear, of course, whether the reductions will continue. Other threats still exist, like Iran's nuclear program.

Earlier this summer, I thought that voters had decided that the Republicans deserved to lose but were not sure that the Democrats deserved to win, and that they were going to wait, as they did in the 1980 presidential and the 1994 congressional elections, to see if the opposition was an acceptable alternative. Events seem to have made that a harder sell for Democrats. A change in the winds.

Read all of his piece. He makes many good points.


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Comments (31)

Barone must be smoki... (Below threshold)
Hugh:


Barone must be smoking the funny weed.This is from the Gallup Poll website. Desparate times make for desparate wishing I suppose.


August 09, 2006
"Most Recent Bush Quarter Worst for a President Since 1992
Averaged 35.8% in 22nd quarter in office


by Jeffrey M. Jones
George W. Bush's most recent quarter, his 22nd office, was the worst of his presidency and the worst for any president since 1992, based on his 35.8% average approval rating during that quarter. It also ranks in the bottom 20 quarters out of more than 200 that Gallup has measured since Harry Truman's presidency."

you are desparate as hell. ... (Below threshold)
billy:

you are desparate as hell. there are 20 other polls that show bush in the toilet where he belongs along with all the other conservative anti america cohorts.
you pick this outlier because you are only losing to the dems a little.

hell since shays decided to cut and run I think the whole gop will probably lose 10 points again.

see you in the minority loser.

The preceding comment broug... (Below threshold)
Sheik Yur Bouty:

The preceding comment brought to you today by the peaceful, tolerant, love everyone Left in America.

It just warms the heart.

So the main thesis of the t... (Below threshold)
John Irving:

So the main thesis of the two trolls at the start of the thread is that Bush will not be re-elected. Hell, I agree with that.

All I posted was the poll M... (Below threshold)
Hugh:

All I posted was the poll Mr. Barone got all ga ga about. Perhaps trolls read better than sarcastic righties? Maybe not. But at any rate I repeat-Barone must be smoking funny weed.

Your reply, Irving, looks as desparate as Barone's interpretation of Bush's polls.

And yet you trolls fixate o... (Below threshold)
scsiwuzzy:

And yet you trolls fixate on the Bush absolute numbers, while ignoring that Barone was talking about trends.
you also ignore the other 2 points, Hugh, that of Lamont's negatives and the reduction of killings in Iraq.
It looks to be that either
A) You cannot/will not refute the possible implications of what you ignored
-OR-
B) Your BDS has equiped you with such tunnel vision that once you see the word Bush, you must fixate on it to exclusion of all else.

However, I fully expect a retort along the lines of "My disagreement with the first point was so great, and Barone so wrong, that the other points do not merit consideration"
Or just the usual insults and froth...

It's the lib MSM that prese... (Below threshold)
Red Fog:

It's the lib MSM that presents biased polls as content news. Why does it matter if George W. Bush is popular? Because it makes libs feel good to believe that he's not liked?

And all those polls are supposedly random from an appropriately defined data set? I have my doubts. The biased media feeds us biased stats and Gallop is there to help them.

Mr. Barone is not the kind ... (Below threshold)

Mr. Barone is not the kind to let wishful thinking cloud his judgement. You ignore him at your peril.

Barone needs to wet his fin... (Below threshold)
groucho:

Barone needs to wet his finger and hold it up again. There's a change in the winds all right, but from the opposite direction. The Repub talking points are up and the disinformation campaign is in high gear, courtesy of talk radio and the Faux Nes Network in particular. Personally I think Americans are rejecting the desperate attempts by the right to demonize the oppostion by smearing them as a small fringe group of the far radical left. It's just not true. Period. When the November polling data are in, we will see how much the wind has changed indeed.

All you posted was a headli... (Below threshold)

All you posted was a headline from a poll stating an average, ignored the upward trend that Mr. Barone pointed out and accused him of using drugs.

The quarterly average is indeed bad for Mr. Bush. The upward trend as of late (and it is early to see how far it will rise) looks better for him. Both are facts and are not contradictory.

Attempting to use one to disprove the other might be tempting at times, but it doesn't make you look very good.

@ grouchoWhen t... (Below threshold)
Red Fog:

@ groucho

When the November polling data are in, we will see how much the wind has changed indeed.

When the elections keep Lieberman in, your stinchin' wind of change will be blown away and your 'opinion polls' will be proven wrong. Harpo is giving you that look again ...

I get the feeling that this... (Below threshold)
eddiebear:

I get the feeling that this week’s orgy of Bush Bashing Katrina anniversary coverage will be an attempt to shift the field back towards the Dems. Watch for a few memes to come out this week for the Dems to use.

Not only has Gallup shifted more favorably to the GOP, Rasmussen and Hotline have also shifted. Only hyper partisan and wholly disreputable pollsters like the ones at Newsweek and cBS have the infamous and wholly unreliable “generic” question in double digits (conveniently, they both have it D+15%) for the Dems.

May/will things change? Undoubtedly. The MSM will be the culprits of that change, but right now, things aren’t as bad as what Larry Sabato and Charlie Cook, who have the same credibility as Zogby’s polls.

WASHINGTON - ... (Below threshold)
Lee:

WASHINGTON - Their confidence shaken by Katrina, most Americans don't believe the nation is ready for another major disaster, a new AP-Ipsos poll finds. Poor people are more likely to fear becoming victims of the next disaster. The survey, conducted one year after the devastating hurricane and with much of New Orleans still in shambles, found diminishing faith in the government's ability to deal with emergencies.

The republican adminstration and republican-led Congress have failed this country again - and with a wake-up call like the Katrina disaster that's difficult to imagine, but true.

That's going to leave a mark come election time...

The majority of the polls a... (Below threshold)
Lee:

The majority of the polls are showing Bush trending lower - granted - the difference we're arguing is whether his performance is viewed as "terrible" or just "really, really bad".... but I guess the republicans around here need these fragile threads to hold onto to....

Oh look! - there's hope - the majority of Americans think we stink - but some think we don't stink as much as we used to!!! -- [email protected]

www.pollingreport.com/BushJob1.htm

the polls, especially this ... (Below threshold)
jp:

the polls, especially this year, greatly over sample Dems, usually there is a 10 point spread in party affiliationg. They should be using the same models they used to poll in 2004 that had push winning by 3.5% just before the election, they were dead on.

Personally, I think they over sample on purpose and put out more polls and news stories associated with them in an attempt to change the political leanings of the public to their favor. The key is the news story headlines their fake polls generate, to persuade people its "ok to vote against bush/repubs, most of the country is against him according to our poll"...

Lee:In your frenzy... (Below threshold)
eddiebear:

Lee:

In your frenzy of cutting and pasting KOS screeds, you failed to note that the AP Poll was taken 3 weeks ago and just released. Yet another example of the rolling thunder the MSM will unleash this week.

Seems typical of the KOS/Townhouse crowd that when one of their pillars is attacked, in this case MSM polls, they suddenly swarm and troll sites debunking the media. Go figure.

The best insight as to how ... (Below threshold)
Luke:

The best insight as to how the polls are trending is to watch the MSM's shows regularly.

For better than 3 months while Bush's numbers were headed south, south, south the dropping poll numbers were th lead story.

Now that the trend is upward one would be hard pressed to find Hairball, Olbertland, et all bringing them up at all.

Fact is the lead story now is how badly this administration handled Katrina in a losing effort to reverse the polls trend.

Smile Lee, you and your party of losers are once again beginning to get your hopes up for Nov '06 and '08 but you know in your heart of hearts you really have no chance against Rove and Diebold.

foggy:Sorry, but I... (Below threshold)
groucho:

foggy:

Sorry, but I'm having a hard time hearing you over the noise created by the wild scramble of rightys everywhere trying to distance themselves from Capt Bush of the Titanic. Pretty soon there will be nothing but flotsam and jetsam, then calm seas where once sailed the "unsinkable" flagship of the Neocon line. R.I.P

Why is it the left keeps fa... (Below threshold)

Why is it the left keeps falling for these bogus polls? It's as if they can't remember these same polls in 2000, 2002, and 2004. As happens every election year the dems lead by large margins in April, May, June, July, and then the polls start tightening in August, September, and October. The pollsters have to show some kind of credibility as the election nears. This is as predictable as the sun rising in the east.

This is the Rasmussen poll ... (Below threshold)
Hugh:

This is the Rasmussen poll that barone uses to support his "wind change" nonsense. I repeat my early question about what he might have been smoking.

Bush Job Approval
Feb 2005 - Current
Approve Disapprove
Aug 28 40 57
Aug 27 42 57
Aug 26 40 58
Aug 25 40 58
Aug 24 40 59
Aug 23 42 57
Aug 22 42 57
Aug 21 43 56
Aug 20 43 56
Aug 19 41 58
Aug 18 41 57
Aug 17 42 56
Aug 16 42 56
Aug 15 42 56
Aug 14 41 57
Aug 13 40 58

Jul 42 57
Jun 41 58
May 40 59
Apr 40 59
Mar 41 57
Feb 45 54
Jan 44

@ Leebut I guess ... (Below threshold)
Red Fog:

@ Lee
but I guess the republicans around here need these fragile threads to hold onto to....

You are the only person I've known to stutter when you write.

@ Mr. Groucho Marx
hard time hearing you over the noise created by the wild scramble of rightys everywhere trying to distance themselves from Capt Bush of the Titanic

Fake news excites gullible rustics like yourself. Just one example of this "wild scramble" ... "everywhere" would assist us here on the ground. Harpo is giving you that look again. So it seems the only one going down is you on your brother Harpo.

Know what I mean? Know what I mean? Know what I mean?

yes Rasmussen.....notice ho... (Below threshold)
jp:

yes Rasmussen.....notice how he's always had bush in the 40's!!! Even during the times CBS and the NYT were having their "polls, plus frontpage headline" in which they claimed his approval was in the mid to low 30s

Missouri Senate race, Dodd ... (Below threshold)
groucho:

Missouri Senate race, Dodd in CT. Many others distancing themselves from Bush/Iraq policies. Just because you don't see them doesn't mean they're not there.

Assuming that many who visi... (Below threshold)
Drew:

Assuming that many who visit here are political junkies..especially those in "red" Senate States or House districts...how close are races that should not be close?...of course this doesn't count Ohio and major DeWine slippage or VA where six months ago a man who was seriously considered for Prez in 2008 and should have walked...has according to the WSJ just fallen behind..or of course the Harris debacle in Fl.

No, I mean it..are things looking brighter for the GOP where you live?
I don't know, but am curious...I don't trust polls but.... believe it or not... I do trust the knowledge of those who post here on local races...
can you post widening local GOP gains?

@ grouchoMissouri... (Below threshold)
Red Fog:

@ groucho
Missouri Senate race, Dodd in CT. Many others distancing themselves from Bush/Iraq policies. Just because you don't see them doesn't mean they're not there.

Thanks for the examples. The MSM has you thinking this is a "wild" scramble by GOP leadership to distance themselves from Bush. Well, Bush is also a perishable commodity at this point and there's no need to tow his line anymore. MSM and 'opinion polls' just givin' you hope but guys like Lieberman will hold power over radical perceptions of surrender and hysterical exuberance for failure in Iraq.

Drew,Don't even wo... (Below threshold)
Luke:

Drew,

Don't even worry about Georgia. This Red State will remain solid Republican. I live in the very northern part of the state and keep a close eye on Tennessee also.

Ford will run a good, but losing, race. I think Corker by 6-8 points, maybe a bit more. The Frist seat will remain Republican.

Ford is having trouble explaining how most of his donations are coming from the rich NE liberals, while most of Corker's donations are from local in-state donors.

Thanks Luke..that is what I... (Below threshold)
Drew:

Thanks Luke..that is what I wanted to know..there are races everywhere and unless we check all the local papers we don't know...I still think it will be about Iraq

I would like to add that this is the second time I posted this reponse. The first time I added the link hxxp://icausualties.org ...of course it had t's instead of xx's...which gives the best information in numbers and official releases on the sacrifice of our troops with links to hometown papers..when i went to preview..there was extra stuff added that made it go to another site..I fixed it and resubmitted it.. I received a response that it would not be posted because of an unauthorized link...I would hope that such a site is not censored here and it was just a weird thing..
Somebody prove me wrong..post anything and give that link ... preview it ..try and post itand see what happens..
Thank you

What some are forgetting is... (Below threshold)
prohoridzo:

What some are forgetting is that the pols are taken w/a skewed weighting. I won't go into the skewing, you can all go look those up. But they are skewing to reflect in a way to bring Bush approval ratings downward (more Dems than Gop and w/adults instead of likely voters). The questions asked are also important to the skewing. For instance, the question most probably is "Do you approve of the job that Pres. Bush is doing"...that could mean anything. A right from center person such as myself would respond that I do not approve of Bush's job ( because I believe that he is not conservative enough). While that would reflect in the negative for the rating that does not in anyway reflect how I will vote in November...which I may add would never ever be inclined to vote for a Democrat under any circumstances.
I would recommend that it is beneficial to watch these trolls respond to such postings as much as possible. It's informative to witness these deviants sinking into madness. You can't defend yourself if you don't know the adversary. As these trolls join the jihad we have to be able to stand firm for the welfare and protection of civilization. Knowing the enemy is half the battle.

prohoridzo,Right o... (Below threshold)
Red Fog:

prohoridzo,

Right on. The herd is unaware of the critical importance of an unbiased sample in stats (lesson #1, in Statistics 101). These polls of the prez popularity are as diluted as a call-in opinion poll live! on Oprah. Yet another example of biased lib MSM hard at work manipulating perceptions.

Sure Drew, glad to help. I ... (Below threshold)

Sure Drew, glad to help. I live in Pa. where Rick Santorum is down to the most boring politician to ever come along-Bob Casey, Jr,- by at least five percentage points. And Lynn (wide reciever) Swann is down in the Governor's race by at least fifteen percent.

As for the congressional races; it's too early to tell, but right now it's not looking good for the incumbents. Even Kirk Weldon is in trouble to a political novice.

So we will see come November who has the last life. My money is on that little blue donkey :)

Never bet on an ass. ... (Below threshold)
prohoridzo:

Never bet on an ass.




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