Jay Tea,

Please do not make promises that you may wish to back out on. You wrote:

(The stock answer, of which I wholeheartedly approve, is to say "OK, you've convinced me. I won't vote for Bush this November. In fact, I'll never vote for him again.")

Amendment XXII is quite clear. It applies only to "elected" presidents or to presidents that are serving out a term to which someone else has been "elected". The 2001-2005 presidential term was filled by a court appointed official and therefore exempt from this Amendment.

Sure, there will be objections and legal challenges from the party of whiners. They will probably fight it all the way thru the court systems. However, I think we all know who the Supremes sing back-up for.

So I believe we should wait and see who the opposition runs against Mr. Bush in 2008 before we make any promises about who we will vote for.

Now, do you understand why Karl is so jolly?

There are strange things going on under the radar here in Indiana. Indiana is a traditionally Red State. However a number of our Republican Representatives are under intense pressure. There are predictions that at least some may lose to Democrat challengers.

In the Seventh Congressional District, things have been happening that no one has noticed until now. This is Julia Carson's district (previously Andy Jacobs Jr.) and has been a SAFE Democrat district for decades. Historically its geographic boundaries have included the older part of Indianapolis. Additionally middle class flight to the suburbs over the decades have made Indianapolis trend more and more Democrat. Most races over the last twenty or thirty years have had only token Republican opposition.

Other problems include the fact that the local Republican Party slates candidates. Because of the general view that a Republican in this race is just a place holder to assure a full ballot, slating does not tend to produce a strong candidate. Stronger candidates tend to look for other races where they feel that they can win.

This year an articulate African American Republican Business man bucked the entire system. He ran against the slate in the May primary and won. His name is Eric Dickerson (not the retired football player). He has largely financed his own campaign and has been ignored generally by both the local Republican Party and the RNC. But like a duck moving on the water, there has been furious action out of sight.

Today it seems to have broken into the open. In a poll released by WTHR Chanel 13 and published in the Indianapolis Star he leads Carson by 3 points. http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061020/COLUMNISTS19/610200417/1006/LOCAL The internals of the polling are even more impressive. Carson has a 49% disapproval rating.
Carson has conducted her campaign in the typical Democrat fashion. At one point she personally attacked Dickerson's character with a 15 year old arrest. Dickerson has declined to dredge up old skeletons from Carson's closet. This is turning into an interesting race.

One final note is in order. Carson historically has delivered five or more percentage points over the polling numbers. She always attributes it to an effective get out the vote effort. Vans delivering groups of voters to the polls are common. Opponents, including some members of the press have suggested that something else is involved.

Indiana has passed a voter picture I.D. requirement. It has been upheld at this point by the courts. It is presently before the Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals in Chicago. In oral arguments, members of the panel did not seem inclined to set aside this law. One of the weak points in the plaintiff's case is the inability to produce even one voter to stand in as a plaintiff who does not possess a picture I.D.
It will be quite interesting if the voter I.D requirement remains and the traditional super performance disappears.

By the way Dickerson could us whatever help anyone wants to deliver.

Burt, I'm willing to see that just to watch the heads explode.

Burt: Surely you can't be serious. Your faulty reasoning is giving me a very, very large headache.

Jay Tea: No, definitely vote Mahoney. We need at least six movies about him outwitting Karl "Harris" Rove.

--|PW|--

In their court case to block Florida voters from learning about this strange twist in the election laws, the democrats claimed that telling voters that a vote for Foley would count as a vote for Negron would be "irreparable harm" to the democrat.

So there you have it. The democratic party admits that letting the voters know the truth would cause them ireparable harm". Truer words are seldom said.

The really, really funny bit is that, due to the age of many of Foley's voters, all the Dems will be getting will be a lot of doddering old pensioners going "I've been hearing that Foley name a lot - I'll vote for him!"

It might be a winning strategy, but it still smacks of cowardice and desperation.

I disagree, Jay Tea. It smacks of attacking your opponent's weakest point. If this were a midterm election in which the sitting president were, say, fooling around with an intern, it would be basic tactics to attack that president's party at the polls and smear that party with the same brush at the president.

Additionally, I note that the six-year election is often a referendum on/indicator of performance of an incumbent president, with his party as proxy. That's only natural.

Finally, how would you classify the GOP implication that "the terrorists will attack if the Democrats win" in their latest ad? Brave? On-topic? Desperate? Cowardly?

--|PW|--

"Try to tie every Republican to President Bush"

Your argument would have more credibility if your example (above) actually supported your claim.

Hillary should show up in person. That would really help whatever His name is pick up votes.

Jay, If a congressional vote as recommended by Kim Priestly yesterday, is indeed a vote for continuing the pro-Bush agenda Folks, if you sit out November 7th, you won't be punishing the Republican lawmakers who pissed you off. You'll be thrusting a high tax, soft on terror, impeach Bush & Cheney, cut and run agenda on all Americans. I can't help wondering why then equally, a vote for the Democrats not be construed and motivated as a vote for punishing Bush administration (or at least trying to slow it down) for continuing its pro war neocon conservative policies which have indeed, effected all Americans. ..What is good for the goose is good for the gander.

Steve:

Oh, cut off the nose to spite the face? Yeah, that makes sense to me.

Still not going to vote Dem for a long time, though... You guys just HAVE to come up with something other than "We're not Republicans".

If all you had to go on was Hillary's letter, you'd think that Mahoney is not only running to replace Mark Foley, but to defeat him as well. You'd never guess that Mark Foley had not only withdrawn from the race, but resigned in disgrace as well.

Wow, reading into it much? All the letter says is that Mahoney is "replacing" Foley. That is 100% accurate. It doesn't imply anything else, nor does it ever mention Foley again.

If all you had to go on was Hillary's letter, you'd think that we were winning in Iraq, the sky is green, and Elvis is alive. Because her letter doesn't address any of those things, one way or another, nor does it address the points that you mention, one way or another.

Brian - The conervatives are upset because Hillary's letter didn't help them - it didn't point out that Negron is replacing Foley, and that a vote for Foley is a vote for Negron.

She never mentioned Negron by name? Gee - I wonder why Hillary didn't include that info in her letter -- duuuuuhhhh....

duuuuhh it took old "pucker puss (lee lee) longer then usual to get in his $.00000000000000002 worth.

You mean like how President Bush is always running against "some people" he can never put a name to like the coward he is?

I agree with you Jay - they're full of $#!%. But surely we already know that. Let's get back to a subject that's a little more meaningful in these strange days we are living in - something close to your heart:

Army Strong.

Watch this documentary (link below) and remember you support your troops. Hillary and her friends certainly don't - they support whatever they think might get them elected, blowing in the wind of focus groups and then betraying their false promises as soon as they get the power they wanted.

But do you? Do you really support your troops? You should, but if you decide to watch this film, ask yourself what you are really supporting - the soldiers who are fighting your war, or some strange idea far removed from reality.

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article15319.htm

Army Strong, Jay, Army Strong. What does it mean? Do you really know and comprehend what you stand for? You like to portray yourself as an independent-minded thinker. But are you, really?

Actually, I think this will hurt the democrats, seeeing as how most republicans are not only dumb enough to vote for bush, but are also confirmed pedophiles. Mark Foley will actually help draw the true base of the Republican party.

The NRCC is doing the same thing here in my neck of the woods, or at least the district next door. They're running this ad against Melissa Bean. Or is it Nancy Pelosi? I can't tell, but I'm pretty sure Pelosi doesn't live anywhere near the Illinois 8th.

Still not going to vote Dem for a long time, though... You guys just HAVE to come up with something other than "We're not Republicans".

Interesting, since Republicans seem to be running on "Ignore our mistakes. We're not Democrats!" That and "terrorists will kill your children if you don't vote for us."

Actually, my feelings are running more along these lines.

Instapundit.com -
As I mentioned before, the Republicans don't really deserve my vote -- though as Bob Corker hasn't been in Washington that's not really his fault -- but nonetheless the Democrats have blown it again. Not long ago I was thinking that a Democratic majority in Congress wouldn't be so bad; but the sexual McCarthyism from the pro-outing crowd, coupled with the Dems' steadfast refusal to offer anything useful on national security, has convnced me that they just don't deserve a victory with those tactics. That's not Ford's fault, either, really. But I just don't think the Democrats are ready for a majority right now. We'll see how many other voters agree.

J.

Hey wingnuts look what the Dems got ahold of.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/19/AR2006101901818.html

Remember, Howard Dean was able to hack a Diebold electronic voting machine live on MSMBC a few months ago using nothing but a "mini bar" key and a memory stick. Is it time for the Repubs to demand a paper trial yet? Sure sucks to have shoe on the other foot doesn't it?

If all you had to go on was Hillary's letter, you'd think that Mahoney is not only running to replace Mark Foley, but to defeat him as well.

You forgot the other condition to thinking that: a fatal lack of reading comprehension. When candidates drop out or retire, they're "replaced." When they're in the race they're "defeated." Delay will be replaced, Reynolds will be defeated.

The democratic party admits that letting the voters know the truth would cause them ireparable harm".

"Irreparable harm" is a technical legal term; it had to be invoked to prevent the FL GOP from violating FL election law.