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Election predictions

OK, it's only a couple of days until the elections, so I figure I better give my predictions on how it's going to turn out. Everyone else is, it seems, so I might as well jump on the bandwagon.

First off, let me explain my methodology:

I have none.

I don't care enough about electoral predictions to invest very much thought or analysis or investigation or research into the matter. So I ignore polls, surveys, trends, and the like. I just bounce numbers around inside my head until something just feels "right," then stick with those figures.

It's occasionally served me well. Back in August of 1988, I predicted the presidential election within one percentage point. I was way off on the electoral count, but that sort of thing requires a bit more homework than I ever felt like doing.

So, without naming any names or citing any particular races or discussing issues or polls, my gut hunch says the Democrats will make gains in both Houses -- but insufficient to take either. I'll say they'll net two Senate seats and six House seats.

OK, I'll discuss one race. Lieberman will trounce Lamont, sending the Nutroots elements into newly-discovered heights of hysteria.

If anyone else would like to make utterly unscientific, unsubstantiated, unfounded electoral predictions, have at 'em. If you are inclined to discuss specifics and issues and why candidate X HAS to win or Y simply has no chance, take it somewhere else. There are plenty of other fora out there for those kind of arguments -- this posting is strictly for fun.


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Comments (55)

OK! For fun.The Se... (Below threshold)
USMC Pilot:

OK! For fun.

The Senate is a basket case and will remain so for ever. That leaves the House of Reps. My question is how can the American people vote a land slide for one party and then two years later put the other party back in power. I'm not talking about this election, necessarily. It seams to happen all of the time. Is it posible that politicians create so much ill will at election time that they have no chance of living up to the promises they make, and are therefore doomed to failure in the eyes of the voters. Or, perhaps it's posible that the American people aren't realy dumb after all, and the great collective brain has figured out that the only safe course is to never let any of the bastards keep power very long.

Dems + 27 House ... (Below threshold)
Hugh:

Dems + 27 House
+ 5 Senate

Hugh:You might wan... (Below threshold)
USMC Pilot:

Hugh:

You might want to consider that if the Dems gain control of both houses, they will cut off funding for Iraq, and President Bush will have to bring the troops home. Then, when things realy go to hell in Iraq, the administration will be pointing their fingers at the Dems, and saying "it's all their fault". Sometimes, it adviseable to be careful what you wish for!

Since I live in the mountai... (Below threshold)
Jumpinjoe:

Since I live in the mountains of east Tennessee, I like to climb to up the tallest and rub my crystal necklace while sending out positive vibes.

I also sing a melody of tunes to reinforce those vibes. "I'd like to teach the world to sing, in perfect harmony, Puff the magic dragon who lived by the sea, Kum bye ya my Lord, Kum bye ya"

My positive Karma output has spread over Tennessee and those positive vibes are now returning back to me.

The only downside is my range covered so this weekend I will try wearing my pyramid hat for greater cosmic energy output.

So far my methods have been working and you can all thank me on Tuesday.

Careful, USMC, you're getti... (Below threshold)

Careful, USMC, you're getting close from Wild-Ass Guessing into actual analysis and debate. That ain't what this thread is intended for.

Not that has ever stopped ANYONE, now that I think about it...

J.

USMCBelieve me I'v... (Below threshold)
Hugh:

USMC

Believe me I've given great consideration to the consequences both ways as I think has most of the country. My wish is incredibly "fervent." I don't think what you fear will happen. I think it will result in a bipartisan effort to find a way to deal with Iraq.

I predict that after the el... (Below threshold)
Brian the Adequate:

I predict that after the election on Tuesday, neither party will have any members in the house and only 67 members between them in the Senate as a people we will finally come to our senses and vote the straight "none of the above ticket."

bipartisan effort = oxymoro... (Below threshold)
USMC Pilot:

bipartisan effort = oxymoron

or:bipartisan effo... (Below threshold)
USMC Pilot:

or:

bipartisan effort = do it my way

USMCI lover your o... (Below threshold)
Hugh:

USMC

I lover your optimism and open-mindedness.

H

I think Michael Steele will... (Below threshold)
meep:

I think Michael Steele will win by 5%. Warming the hearts of puppy-lovers everywhere.

This is based on absolutely nothing, other than my current streak of scoring well in Ace's NFL pool.

The easiest methodology for... (Below threshold)
sanssoucy:

The easiest methodology for predicting electoral success is simply to adjust for the 3% - 5% built-in anti-Republican bias inherent in the national polls.

Thus a race that's a "dead heat" in polling will almost certainly be won by the Republican by 3-5%. A race where the Democrat leads polls by 3-5% is a tossup and can go either way. A Democrat who's leading by more than 5% is probably a lock. And any Republican lead - however slight - is a deadlock.

Simple.

SS

Hugh:Thank you. Bu... (Below threshold)
USMC Pilot:

Hugh:

Thank you. But it's realy just practical thinking, born of experience.

Write in canidate Vincinte ... (Below threshold)
Tim:

Write in canidate Vincinte Fox will take North Carolina with a clear 12 million votes

Jay Tea,I think yo... (Below threshold)
Baggi:

Jay Tea,

I think you're prediction is pretty close. I'm going to say 2 for each. 2 house and 2 Senate for the Democrats.

Here are two easy predictio... (Below threshold)
smartguy:

Here are two easy predictions.

Any race that a Democrat loses will have been fraught with voting machine error, fraud, and miscounts, and will always be known as the Election That Was Stolen.

Any race that a Democrat wins will of course be the voting public making their voice heard.

I'm betting the country is ... (Below threshold)
groucho:

I'm betting the country is desperate for change and will respond by voting very strongly anti-incumbent.

31 House seats and 6 Senate seats for the Dems (using nothing more than the WAG method).

Republican landslide as Dem... (Below threshold)
theExecutioner:

Republican landslide as Dems all over the country write-in "Saddam".

My prediction: this ... (Below threshold)
Hugh:


My prediction: this is the song dems, independents and sane republicans from the center will be singing on Tuesday. Start practicing the chorus now folks. :-)

Happy Days Are Here Again

So long sad times!,
Go 'long bad times!,
We are rid of you at last
Howdy, gay times!
Cloudy gray times,
You are now a thing
Of the past, cause:
Chorus:
Happy days are here again
The skies above are clear again
Let us sing a song of cheer again
Happy days are here again
Altogether shout it now!
There's no one who can doubt it now
So let's tell the world about it now
Happy days are here again
Your cares and troubles are gone;
There'll be no more from now on
Happy days are here again
The skies above are clear again
Let us sing a song of cheer again
Happy days are here again

Rep keep both ... no tellin... (Below threshold)
Soupy2c2:

Rep keep both ... no telling how long before we know it. Senate loses 2, House loses 12. Fortunately for the dems the media and pollsters have set them up to again carry the water that there are voting issues. Isn't that what all this hoopla has been about anyway?

Jay..Just a 6 House seat a... (Below threshold)
Steve Crickmore:

Jay..Just a 6 House seat and 2 Senate seat chamge prediction. You do like 'to piss off' liberals from time to time, and professionl pollsters for good measure.

Democrats take the majority... (Below threshold)
DaveD:

Democrats take the majority in the House. Pelosi eventually offends and gets replaced as speaker by a more moderate Democrat. Senate? Can't tell.

Sorry, I meant "moderate" n... (Below threshold)
DaveD:

Sorry, I meant "moderate" not "more moderate".

DaveD:"Pelosi even... (Below threshold)
USMC Pilot:

DaveD:

"Pelosi eventually offends and gets replaced as speaker"

You don't already find her offensive enough?

The Democrats like to think... (Below threshold)

The Democrats like to think of themselves as "the Good Guys." If we accept their position, then we must conclude that the Republicans will win, and big time. The reason, of course, is this:

"Evil will always triumph, because good is dumb."

This from an Independent...... (Below threshold)
Garion:

This from an Independent... Reps keep both. Dems gain some seats but not enough.

USMC Pilot, I certainly do.... (Below threshold)
DaveD:

USMC Pilot, I certainly do. I just don't know whether her party colleagues do yet.

smartguy's "two easy predic... (Below threshold)
Justrand:

smartguy's "two easy predictions" are SPOT ON!!

We'll either have to listen to how America has chosen a "Nude Erection", or how the Dimocrats are once again: VICTIMS!!!

p.s. if you haven't been over to YouTube to see the Dimocrat "New Direction" video it is a SCREAM!!

p.p.s. that said I believe we hold the Senate by two seats, and the House by 3

We will have no idea which ... (Below threshold)
Burt:

We will have no idea which seats will be held by whom after Tuesday's election. We will be forced to wait and see who the "Supremes" choose to sing back-up for. I predict it will be after Jan 1,2007 since the lawyers involved will file for extensions so that their hard-earned scheckels will be 2007 earnings. That way they will have longer to find tax shelters to invest in.

All folks have to do is loo... (Below threshold)
nogo postal:

All folks have to do is look At Repubs in the House who last spring looked safe..the races are now close or they are behind...here in conservetive Colorado they lose two..one held by Bob Beaupraz who will also lose as Gov candidate..and the other will be Marriage Amendment queen Marilyn Musgrave...
At least here it looks like change...
Colorado will also show that great Red/Blue image stuff is crap..Colorado remains Conservetive whoever this time around the sheep remain in the pasture and not the voting booth..

My only Senate call is Webb in VA..there are a lot of military there and Webb has credibility with them.

GOP loses 10 house seats an... (Below threshold)
kempermanx:

GOP loses 10 house seats and 2 senate seats, keeps both houses. Assuming Steele wins, we lose PA and Ohio, and RI hold all others and pick up Md.

Carrie Underwood is a shoe-... (Below threshold)
VagaBond:

Carrie Underwood is a shoe-in for the Horizon Awards at the CMA...oops...we're not talking about these predictions are we?

<a href="http://www.elector... (Below threshold)
muirgeo:
Dems gain a total of 6 seat... (Below threshold)
retired military:

Dems gain a total of 6 seats. Republicans hold both houses. Pelosi wont be speaker next year, Dean will continue to be a has been on TV talk shows only with the word Former added to his title of DNC Chairman. Kerry wont be seen or heard of because he will be the Dem scapegoat. The MSM will wail and gnash their teeth over 10 different elections proclaiming voter fraud and when the dust clears on page D 42 of the NY Times you will find a one paragraph story stating the only voter fraud found was from groups like ACORN with no mention of their affiliation with the democratic party.

Stevens will retire due to health issues and when Bush nominates the african american female judge (cant think of her name) you will see the democratic party tear itself apart at the seams trying to discredit her and totally getting hammered by the African American voters.

2007 will be known as the year the democratic party died.

In the end it's probably mo... (Below threshold)

In the end it's probably more about who we think will win and why. I like your methodology. Came across this page http://www.andersonanalytics.com/ctvote/
who cares about the points, it's who's going to win that matters and not by how much

Late polling shows tighteni... (Below threshold)
Mitchell:

Late polling shows tightening in the key Senate races, but all the Repub. incumbents are still below 50% which is a bad sign for an incumbent. Corker is above 50%, so I think he wins. I will say the gotv drive will carry the GOP in Senate with a Dem pick up of net 3 seats. GOP controls Senate (thank God).

The House is a different story. Hardly any Dem. seats are in play, and a multitude of Rep. seats are. I think there will be a very modest Dem. pick up, and a margin of 1-5 seats for Dems. in the House, giving them a very slim margin to work with.

I think in '08 we probably pick many of these seats back up and expand our margins. Dems. don't have a platform that resonates; being anti-Bush wont' do any good in '08.

"...being anti-Bush wont... (Below threshold)
Lee:

"...being anti-Bush wont' do any good in '08."

The same was said repeatedly about '06 election. Last spring, as a vocal (loud-mouthed) critic of Bush's administration I was constantly reminded by Wizbang commenters that Bush wasn't running in the '06 election.

Bush was a huge factor in the '06 election, and I predict the referendum on Bush that drove the '06 election in favor of the Democrats will have similar effects in '08.

Lee: "Bush was a ... (Below threshold)
Justrand:

Lee: "Bush was a huge factor in the '06 election"

Wow!! Lee, fresh back from the FUTURE has informed us Bush WAS a huge factor!!

Lee, buddy, can you tell me whether Indianapolis will beat the spread in today's game?? I'll split the proceeds with ya!

I think that the anti-Bush ... (Below threshold)
kevino:

I think that the anti-Bush vote is good enough to give the House to the Dhimmicrats. Moderate voters in 2006 are in favor of divided governmet. In addition, I think that many Reagan democrats will vote for Democrats or stay home, and some conservatives will stay away, too. A lot of people feel that it's time to pull President Bush's teeth, and a Democratic House will prevent him from getting anything he wants anymore.

I'm an independent who voted for Bush twice, but I won't vote for either party this year. Neither party deserves it. In NH, Rep Bass will win easily -- without my vote. The village idiot the Defeatocrats are running against him is not a person that anyone but a partisan hack or another village idiot would vote for.

I think that the GOP will retain the Senate - barely.

I can't imagine that Republ... (Below threshold)
audrey:

I can't imagine that Republicans will stay home and let Dems take over... the visceral reaction to the Dems is too strong. Some conservatives might be bugged with some of the decisions made by the GOP, but the Dems bug us more.
I'm looking forward to Steele's acceptance speech.

Senate as of 11-08=60 repub... (Below threshold)
jainphx:

Senate as of 11-08=60 republicans,of which 5 are rinos.House republicans 224-dems 211.Take it to the bank.

Since this about the predic... (Below threshold)
Don:

Since this about the predictions for the results of Tue. election, I will venture to give mine.
In the Senate, the Elephants will have 57 seats and the Jackasses will have 47 seats.
In the House of Repesentatives, the Elephants will have 220 seats and the Jackasses will have 215 seats.

I predict that AFTER the el... (Below threshold)
elle:

I predict that AFTER the election there will be multiple terrorist attacks on our soil. The AQ folks will want to make sure the Liberal Wusses are in power before they make their move.

In the Senate, the Eleph... (Below threshold)
mantis:

In the Senate, the Elephants will have 57 seats and the Jackasses will have 47 seats.

104 Senators? So you're predicting that in addition to Republicans maintaining the majority in the Senate, we're going to pick up two extra states? Puerto Rico & Guam, maybe?

Best case scenario is to ha... (Below threshold)
John S:

Best case scenario is to have the GOP keep the Senate and we get a Pelosi freak show in the House. Looking at that shrill witch on the news *every* night will end any chance of the Dems winning the White House in 2008. Second best case: Democrats win the Senate and Bush has to learn how to use a veto pen. Then the Dems get full blame for the 2007 recession.

"Democrats win the Senat... (Below threshold)
Lee:

"Democrats win the Senate and Bush has to learn how to use a veto pen."

That's certainly a probable scenairo. Bush denying the will of the people speaking through their elected representatives.

Yep -- that should be sufficient to keep Republicans out of the White House in '08.

LEE- You drunk on cool aid!... (Below threshold)
Knightbrigade:

LEE- You drunk on cool aid!? Your NOT going to win the Senate, so don't even think about it.

As far as the "WILL" of the people, dumocrates all of a sudden speak for ALL the people? Guess again..... cheers.....

dems get at least 4, maybe ... (Below threshold)
sean nyc/aa:

dems get at least 4, maybe 5 in the senate - definitely pa, oh, likely ri, mt, possibly va, mo. lieberman still caucuses with dems, altough his victory is ~4 pts. I think the so-called liberal bias is actually reverse here where people are not as excited to vote for lierberman, so his +8 margin now is actually less. this splits the senate (although lieberman is squishy), giving Cheney even more power, God help us.

in the house, dems take ~20, giving a slim majority, and committee chairmanships to provide oversight of Bush (what this election is about), but not necessarily a governing majority for controversial issues. however, several more congresscritters will be indicted in Abramoff related scandals, and dems may pick up one or two more in special elections throughout the session.

Someone should send Lee a c... (Below threshold)

Someone should send Lee a copy of the United States Constitution -- you know, the one he keeps insisting that George Bush is shredding. If he can actually manage to read about it, he might learn that Congress is NOT supreme, but that our three branches of government are equals -- and the presidential veto is one of the essential "checks and balances" built into the Constitution.

Nah, that's probably too sophisticated a concept for him to grasp.

J.

Actually the House, which t... (Below threshold)
John S:

Actually the House, which the Democrats *might* get marginal control over is the weakest govt. body. And if the Republicans control the Senate, the House has no influence whatsoever, other than to serve as a daily embarrassment to the Democrat Party. BTW: In the Senate Repubs keep both Mont. and Va. Wouldn't it be ironic, though, if the Senate was evenly divided and Lieberman held the deciding vote over control? I hope Howard Dean can kiss some serious ass.

GOP keeps both houses.... (Below threshold)
Brian Clark:

GOP keeps both houses.

Jay - I'm all in favor of B... (Below threshold)
Lee:

Jay - I'm all in favor of Bush vetoing Democratic legislation throughout the final two years of his term. It'll make electing a Democratic president in '08 all that much easier.

And while that concept isn't sophisticated in the last, it's no surprise you don't get it.

OK I'll bet on "No Pass". ... (Below threshold)
scotty:

OK I'll bet on "No Pass". Since everyone is basically saying the same thing, maybe I can win by betting against the "conventional wisdom" on this one.

Senate all incumbants hold their seats.
Rep change +0
Dem change -1
ind change +1

House Repubs gain 2 or 3 seats.

HA HA HA you say. Well, I believe that nobody has caught on to the fact that the polls are no longer very accurate (especially early polling) Many conservatives don't trust the pollsters whom they regard as an extention the the MSM. They are not participating in polling or even answering in a deceptive way (Creepy liars!). I think this may translate into a 10% false bias toward the Dems. Some of that false bias shakes itself out when you get a controverys like the Kerry comments. But, in the end, it is behind the polling curtain where the truth comes out. I need only point to 2004 as evidence of this crazy theory of mine. Not very many pollsters caught the election day swing back to reality because even exit polling numbers were all screwed up.

A word to the conservative ... (Below threshold)
Jon:

A word to the conservative majority who seem to frequent this site: do you really think holding onto both houses of Congress -- staying the political course -- is in the best interests of this country? Putting aside the "us vs. them" attibute and uncivil demagoguery for a moment, consider what many people in this country are pondering right now: Republic majorities are likely to mean a continuation of pork-laden deficit spending, no end in sight to a continued protracted war in Iraq, the very real possibility of appointing another Supreme Court justice who would like to overturn Roe v. Wade. Is this what you are hoping for?

Do you not agree that the last time we had any kind of fiscal responsibility in this country was in the last decade, built upon budgets submitted by the last administration. Do you really think Republicans in the White House and in both houses of Congresss have put us on a better course?

all this "clown talk" is a ... (Below threshold)
ilveskivi:

all this "clown talk" is a real bore, none of it reads as especially clever. it's so "i'm a republican, come hell or highwater" (ish). aren't you embarrassed?

what has this congress accomplished that you're so eager to endorse? is it the passage of the military commisions act (and denial of an enemy combatant's universaly recognized--for the last 900(+) years--right of habeus corpus), the 9 TRILLION dollar federal deficit, or the scandal, shameless corruption and efforts to cover them up (i could name names)? why on earth would you want to maintain the satus quo? and what's with name calling the people who pray to goodness that something changes!

by the way, usmc pilot, my father was a usmc pilot, too, colonel. he didn't suffer fools or republicans gladly, especially fools in a position to put marines in the line of fire without the means needed to win and no plan for exit. especially, never served a combat day in their lives fools!

sorry, jay, i know i'm way too serious for this site. it's such a hot bed of rabid republicans and i'd really like to hear some serious answers. no clown talk, please. i really want to know.

sorry for bringing the party down. eak.




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