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Bush Approval Rating

The new Rasmussen tracking poll was just released. (Yes, I stayed up and kept refreshing the screen.)

President Bush's job approval is now at 45%, disapproval is now at 52%. That is a 5 point swing in one night, so you can imagine what the results must have been in the one night sample.

This is actually the best number for the President since the 9/11 anniversary. However, a closer look at the numbers may give some indication where we will stand on election day.

September 11, 2006 - 41% to 57%.
September 12, 2006 - 44% to 54%
September 13, 2006 - 45% to 52%
September 14, 2006 - 47% to 50%

It took three nights for the bad sample to be removed. When it was all said in done, the President received a 13% bounce. Given the fact that he probably scored his best numbers in the immediate sample after his speech, his net approval rating was probably higher, perhaps 20% net approval on the day following September 11, 2006.

Now let's look at the present situation.

November 5, 2006 - 43% to 53%
November 6, 2006 - 45% to 52%
November 7, 2006 - ?

As you can see, the odds are that the President will rise even higher tomorrow as the sample from last night rolls off the charts. And, in case you are wondering, if the President is in the vicinity of 47% to 48%, it is extremely good news. The race for the House will be fought and won in Ohio and Indiana. If the President is at 48% nationally, he is probably around 53% to 54% in places like Indiana.


Comments (46)

Yeah, my money is still on ... (Below threshold)
jp2:

Yeah, my money is still on him going down as one of the worst Presidents ever. We'll see.

Hmmmm.....That's f... (Below threshold)
John:

Hmmmm.....

That's funny, but I'm on the Rasmussen site right now, and the numbers you give for November 5th don't match their site.

And they have not posted the numbers for the 6th yet.

And your speculation for the 7th is just a wild guess, no?

Anyway, the poll numbers are just bouncing a point or two eiether way, which is well within the range of uncertanty. I wouldn't get too worked up about this. More than half of Americans still think he's doing a poor job. That's been a constant.

John

Yeah, I'm with JP2 on that.... (Below threshold)
John:

Yeah, I'm with JP2 on that. Pretty much worst president ever.

John

Not sure that I understand ... (Below threshold)
Mike:

Not sure that I understand your point. As John said, more than half of Americans think he's doing a bad job and not even the positive bounce he got after the 9/11 anniversary could change that fact.

And yes, worst President. Ever.

First, President Bush is no... (Below threshold)
USMC Pilot:

First, President Bush is not the worst president ever. No one can ever posibly replace Jimmy Carter for that one.

Second, The 50+% disapproval rating includes those conservative that are still bent out of shape over the immigration issue. I seriously doubt that very many of them would vote for Gore or Kerry, if their life depended on it.

Third, as we get closer to the election the presidents numbers are rising because the pollsters need to maintain their credibilty, so their polls have to begin to resemble reality, and not the fantasy world that they would like to live in.

Forth, when it gets down to voting, people start taking a real look at the overall picture, and not just the one or two issues that they have been upset about. What you want to bet, no one remembers the Dubia World Ports issue. Most people are going to look at the economy, no terrorist attacks, improvement in the structure of the supreme court, etc.

Any president that has a 45% approval rating after six years is probably in the upper 10% of all the two term presidents. Just my guess.

USMC Pilot,I agree w... (Below threshold)
Eneils Bailey:

USMC Pilot,
I agree with you that Bush's less than 50 per cent approval rating has a large number of conservatives that disagree with the stance Bush takes on a number of issues.
I was recently polled by Hart Research Associates calling on behalf of Congressman John Spratt (D-SC, 5th district.) It was a definite push poll that opened with a number of questions about issues concerning President Bush. I gave Bush a low rating on the issues in question, some of them, you have noted in your comment.
That said, Bush's stance on some issues, will not drive the average Conservative into to voting for the democrat party in large numbers. It will drive them to seek change within the Republican party. I can't wait to vote for someone to oppose Lindsey Graham in the Republican primary in the next election cycle. If Graham wins, I will hold my nose and vote for him, can't go over to the dark side.

the Democrats (and the libe... (Below threshold)
theExecutioner:

the Democrats (and the liberal press) have tried their darndest to drag average Americans to the 'dark side' but the Democrats are already there. And they WILL fall into the hole just as darth vader did and their hero Saddam will when I pull the lever.

Liberals,I thought... (Below threshold)
nehemiah:

Liberals,

I thought you said Reagan was the worst president ever???? Now that half the world considers him a hero, I guess you'd rather not talk about him anymore.

As far as President Bush, he is one of the top 5 presidents in the history of the U.S. Look at his support for Israel.

And please, would ONE liberal please defend Carter?

Eneils Bailey:The ... (Below threshold)
USMC Pilot:

Eneils Bailey:

The problem is that in the primaries an incumbent has such a tremendous advantage it is hard to "throw the rascals out". The party faithfulls see them as a sure way to keep the seat, which is all important. Until voters are ready to pay attention to primaries, things will not change. It is my opinion that President Bush has done what he could considering the make up of the Republicans in congress. The Democrats have a much more "toe the party line or else" attitude and are therefore able to occomplish their agendas.

I can't help but wonder how... (Below threshold)
_Mike_:

I can't help but wonder how flawed their sampling is... I've gotten calls asking for responses to political polls before, but I give the same response I do to the telemarketers ("Thanks but I'm not interested and please remove my name from your calling list"). I don't have the time or inclination to participate. So, I can't help but wonder.. what's the profile of the typical person that takes the time to respond to these polls ? Or more specifically, how 'representative' is their sampling actually ?

nehemiah:Have you ... (Below threshold)
USMC Pilot:

nehemiah:

Have you ever noticed, how Carter never seems to be at any Democratic candidates speaches or rallies?

What in the name of god was... (Below threshold)
Hugh:

What in the name of god was this guy smoking when he wrote this piece. He just made shit up and expects the loonie right to belive it. Oh, never mind that's what Bush and company do.


Bush has bumped up and down a point or 2 for a year but to read this guy's made up fairy tale he'll be at 90% in just a month or so.

USMC do you actually read the article a thread is referring to? Apparently not. You might actually try it sometime before you posit theories that the actual article doesn't support. E.g. this article says the driving force of the poll is Iraq. And Boy Bush has a 79% approval rating with repubs....which means it's way higher with the right wing.

Hugh:For a while o... (Below threshold)
USMC Pilot:

Hugh:

For a while over the last few days I thought you might be a pretty good commentor, but I see now that you are just another raving lunatic liberal. Yes, I always read the thread throughly and as Jay will tell you sometimes have problems with his articles. Now to the point. Oh, what the hell you made it for me. If the conservatives march in lock step like the dimwits, then the 79% would be 100% and the presidents approval rating would be well over 50%. Bad me, I broke down and called names. I shall try not to do it again.

Dittos on Bush's negatives ... (Below threshold)
Jumpinjoe:

Dittos on Bush's negatives coming from Republicans ticked off on single agenda items. BUT, would not under any circumstances vote for the lefty agenda to "send a message".

But the MSM did get wind of Republican anger on these single issues and are using that to legitimize their catch phases such as "lackluster Republican base".

How many bloggers comments of sitting this election out gave them this ammo? I was getting particularly dismayed on this attitude even though I agreed on the agenda. (Immigration being one of the latest)

There are new bloggers here as a result of this infighting and the infighting that was sensed by the MSM and is now being used against us.

I truly felt that melt down was going to bite us in the ass down the road and here we are scratching away at hope of even keeping the Senate in the last hours of this election. And I don't care about trends of six-year itches. It means nothing especially since the Democrats have absolutely no agenda except surrendering the war on terror and was allowed to sit on the sidelines on the immigration debate without a peep.

During the "immigration melt down" was when my son was just starting to seriously think about military service. So with all the talk of "sitting 06 out" made me wonder if those that I aligned myself politically with were indirectly undermining our security by just handing it over to the moonbat driven leftists. (we still may)

My son did join and graduates basic at Ft. Benning at the end of the month. I hate to think that those that loath him can pull the purse strings on his future deployments. (btw, he scored very high on his entrance exam)

Win or loose Tuesday, for the next two years going into 08, if we disagree with our elected leaders we should play our hand. BUT at the same time remembering what the alternative is of completely loosing.

For example, we can demand strong immigration reform but also remind everyone we don't want anything even close to the alternative of Democrats at the border acting like WalMart greeters.

It is possible to do both simultaneously.

Think about that next time you want to stomp your feet especially if we loose tomorrow.



can someone explain for thi... (Below threshold)
msuv:

can someone explain for this ignorant person why political polls never seem to add up to one hundred percent even with +/- differences when I see them on TV. Thanks.

can someone explain for thi... (Below threshold)
msuv:

can someone explain for this ignorant person why political polls never seem to add up to one hundred percent even with +/- differences when I see them on TV. Thanks.

msuv:Probably beca... (Below threshold)
USMC Pilot:

msuv:

Probably because they are taken by "dimwit lunatic liberal".

Oh God, I did it again!

I think Mike has a very goo... (Below threshold)
DaveD:

I think Mike has a very good point. If phone polling is used, it would be nice to see something like "5000 phone calls were placed from which we received 1000 responses". I am assuming when they say "from 1000 respondents" these are only a subset of the responses they solicited. True?

USMC:Following you... (Below threshold)
Hugh:

USMC:

Following your logic( 79% would be 100%)all republicans are conservatives. Though I think you would like to believe that I don't really think you do. Or do you?

P.S. I thought we were becoming buddies too. Damn I'm disappointed.

In Novak's columns today, w... (Below threshold)
BarneyG2000:

In Novak's columns today, writing about Bush's "Popularity" on the campaign trail, he has this quote from a prominent Republican: "The President should go on a two-and-a-half week vacation.. than go right to the hospital for minor surgery". Other republicans added, (the GOP) would have been better off if Bush got lost the last two weeks.

Side Note: If anyone has heard from Mitchell, please let me know. He is late for our discussion regarding President Ortega.

Too bad the CNN poll (out t... (Below threshold)
BarneyG2000:

Too bad the CNN poll (out today) paints a different picture:

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- President Bush's popularity has dipped to 35 percent, according to a new CNN poll, with 41 percent of likely voters saying their disapproval of his performance will affect their vote in Tuesday's elections for control of Congress.

In Novak's column... (Below threshold)
Jumpinjoe:
In Novak's columns today, writing about Bush's "Popularity" on the campaign trail, he has this quote from a prominent Republican: "The President should go on a two-and-a-half week vacation.. than go right to the hospital for minor surgery". Other republicans added, (the GOP) would have been better off if Bush got lost the last two weeks

Which, ahem, (cough, cough) prominent Republican said this? And who are these Republican(S) (plural) who speak in unison saying the President should go on vacation?

My guess it is somebody's sock puppet named "prominent Republican" because the President is on the campaign trail and the opposite is happening.

Isn't that weird?

The Prez has been running a... (Below threshold)
Rance:

The Prez has been running around, preaching to the choir, telling them not to vote for the Democrats because they haven't got a plan for Iraq.

Yesterday, on "Face the Nation", Sen. Frist said with regard to the war in Iraq "We know that the outcome that we had all anticipated from people in Congress all the way to the American people, have not been accomplished. And it's going to take adjustments, it is going to take changes..."

When asked by Bob Schieffer what changes have to be made, his answer was:
1) Don't say we're going to pull out.
2) Set milestones (for what he didn't say).
3) Disarm the militia.
4) Distribute the oil revenues.

This is the great plan for which the Dems have no answer? Sounds like the status quo to me.

barneygoogle you really pay... (Below threshold)
jhow66:

barneygoogle you really pay any attention to cnn? you got to be kidding. Sheeze you got to be a dumbass.

And it's going to ... (Below threshold)
Jumpinjoe:
And it's going to take adjustments, it is going to take changes..."

Clue: Stay the course means winning. It does not mean not adjusting tactics to counter the "Democratic Party politically aligned Freedom Fighters" tactics on the ground.

But since you bring it up, please elaborate the Democrats plan again because I seemed to have missed it in your post.

The most I've heard about Iraq from Democrats were the troops were idiots.

Thanks in advance.

~Peace Out~

Since you brought it up, I ... (Below threshold)
Rance:

Since you brought it up, I have never seen anyone in the administration define exactly what constitutes a victory.

How do we know when we have won the war and can bring the troops home? Is someone going to sign a surrender document?


Does disarming the militias constitute a victory?
If so, we sure weren't moving in that direction when we let the local militia dictate terms in Baghdad last week.

What constitutes a win?
What is the administrations plan to get us there?

Haven't you heard of "Stay ... (Below threshold)
Lee:

Haven't you heard of "Stay the Course" Rance? If we just "Stay the Course" it'll all work out... Rumsfeld will hold a press conference when it's over and we no longer have to "Stay the course", but until then "Stay the course" is the operational plan.

What are you? A liberal Democrat terrorist!?!? I Bet you voted for Jimmy Carter!

You libs distort EVERYTHING... (Below threshold)
nehemiah:

You libs distort EVERYTHING so easily -- all it takes is one person to have witnessed what you describe to take you down. Just one blue dress takes down all your lies.

Well it happens that I saw the Frist segment on Face the Nation. So too bad for you Rance, as there is a witness. Frist did not say that. He emphasized that there "needs to be flexibility". Why do you think he says that. I will tell you the honest reason. The reason is that so much of the public is confused about Iraq. They think a thousand war casualties is terrible. Well it is, until you compare to other wars. If we compare to WWII, this so far has been a cakewalk. But so much misinformation is out there that for political reasons we have to appear to be "flexible". Well stay the course is ABSOLUTELY the right thing to do. And as you mock this plan, you yourself say (and I quote): "This is the great plan for which the Dems have no answer?" (that is a letter by letter quote).

Well, you just gave the answer. Even if in your eyes it is a crappy plan (which it is not), even for a plan which you consider "crappy", you STILL HAVE NO ALTERNATIVE. Congratulations.

How do we know whe... (Below threshold)
Jumpinjoe:
How do we know when we have won the war and can bring the troops home? Is someone going to sign a surrender document?

I know this has been gone over and over but I'll reiterate.

When security is turned over to Iraqi forces we will stand down.

But many of us have wondered if Democrats showed some alliance with the Iraqi people maybe it would motivate them to move faster. But they don't know if Democrats that have been endorsed by terrorists will sign surrender documents and leave them. But then I'm not sure if Democrats will ever get on board let alone the Iraqi people knowing if Democrats will help them. You know those Iraqi people, the ones that showed off their purple fingers to the world.

Hope this clarifies your question.

~Yo, Word~

Lee,By the way, Ra... (Below threshold)
nehemiah:

Lee,

By the way, Rahm the commie Emanuel is nervous. I don't know if it due to Castro's failing health, or the Republican momentum.

But good going on not taking my wager. I'm serious. It was a good move on your part.

nehemiah -- you totally roc... (Below threshold)
Lee:

nehemiah -- you totally rock, dude. awesome.

The latest Fox/Opinion Dyna... (Below threshold)
Lee:

The latest Fox/Opinion Dynamics Poll has Bush's approval rating dropping also.

10/24-10/25 - approve 40%, disapprove 53% undecided 6%

11/4-11/5 - approve 38%, disapprove 54%, undecided 8%


nehemiah:Here is t... (Below threshold)
Rance:

nehemiah:

Here is the transcript:

SCHIEFFER: You said you recognize changes have to be made.

Sen. FRIST: Yeah, absolutely.

SCHIEFFER: Should there be some sort of withdrawal? A timetable? Just give me an example of what you think ought to be changed?

Sen. FRIST: No. Well, let me--let me just tell you, I was in--in Iraq about three weeks ago, three and a half weeks ago, and spent a lot of time with Prime Minister Malaki, with the Cabinet, Shiite and Sunni, and with President Talabani. And what is very clear is that if we say that we're going to pull out on a certain date, that chaos would result, terrorism would spring forth even more than it is today, and Iraq, which Osama bin Laden has called it, really is on that forefront of terrorism for around the world. It would increase and it would expand. Therefore, absolutely we should not set a, set a specific timetable for withdrawal.

We do need to set milestones, milestones to that government. Basically say that you do need to disarm the militia and let's see what you're going to do, how you're going to do it and when you're going to do it. And we need to actually say--not just disarm the militia, but make sure that you have economic reform coming in so we can have the oil--oil revenues distributed.

SCHIEFFER: All right.

Sen. FRIST: Those milestones have to be met, in effect, like the milestone was met today in terms of Saddam Hussein being brought to justice.


He did not say anything about the Iraqi troops standing up and us standing down. He was asked what changes should be made and this is what he said. Period.


By the way, I don't need a plan. I haven't put myself forth as being qualified to be a leader of the free world. Frist, among others, says the opposition has no plan. When asked what he would do, he rehashes the same old stuff.

Despite your non sequitur accusation, I'm not what you would call a "lib". I'm a pragmatic, moderate, independent.

I'm also, in spirit, from Missouri -- if you have a plan, show me.

Lee,There is a new... (Below threshold)
Jumpinjoe:

Lee,

There is a new term out there that you will have to learn to adjust to.

Its called "Blog Time".

Set your watch to it. Things shake and move quicker on this clock.

~Peace, Love & Animal Crackers~


By the way, I don'... (Below threshold)
Jumpinjoe:
By the way, I don't need a plan. I haven't put myself forth as being qualified to be a leader of the free world

Rance, (Dude or Dudette), that's not the point. It is NOT whether YOU personally have a plan.

There are two competing ideas out there and you have to pick one.

Choice One: Stay the course and win.

Choice Two: Cut and Run now and let the chips fall where they may.

And beauty of it all is you get to go to the voting booth and actually pick your favorite of the competing ideas.

~Take Time To Smell the Flowers~

No plan huh? So not even o... (Below threshold)
nehemiah:

No plan huh? So not even one suggestion of what you would do different. Except you somehow know for sure that the current plan is wrong?

My plan. I will tell you. I'm no chickenshit like you. I'll spell it out.

STAY THE COURSE without giving a f**k what you LIBS and "independents" say.

Jumpinjoe:First of... (Below threshold)
Rance:

Jumpinjoe:

First of all, nobody says "Stay the course" anymore. That's so last week.

Second, those aren't the only choices. Those are just the extreme endpoints of a continuum of choices. The ones in between just don't fit easilyt onto a bumper sticker.

Third, I don't have to pick one. There are actually candidates that support something in between, even though their opponents try to paint them as being one or the other.

Besides, Sen. Conrad Burns says there is a plan, it's just secret. Maybe it's Nixon's secret plan to win the war in Vietnam.

First of all, nobo... (Below threshold)
Jumpinjoe:
First of all, nobody says "Stay the course" anymore. That's so last week

I decided I was going to keep using it. The reason is because it was mischaracterized. Democrats said it meant "since we haven't won, meaning turning security 100 percent over to the Iraqis by now" that it has failed already.

And because we have not we should leave now. This taking into consideration the Iraqis have been taking over security all over the country.

Second, those aren't the only choices. Those are just the extreme endpoints of a continuum of choices. The ones in between just don't fit easilyt onto a bumper sticker

I think I stay informed enough to know that there isn't anyone that is a true leader in the Democratic Party that is articulating this happy medium.

What we hear from the leadership of the Democratic Party and the voices of the blog world, which actually drive the agenda, is the advocating of "Cut and Run".

Democrats will view any win as a mandate for "cut and run". There are some seething lefties that will ensure that part of the party line is towed. Mark my word.

~What If There Was A War And Nobody Came~

(then we are dead, because they are coming regardless)

Jumpinjoe:I think ... (Below threshold)
Rance:

Jumpinjoe:

I think that anyone who says there are no Democrats supporting anything other than "cut and run" simply isn't listening to the debate. Likewise, there are Republicans saying things other that "stay the course" that are being ignored.

And because you hit one my "language nazi" hot buttons, it's "toe the line" not "tow the line".
It implies military style discipline, not pulling barges.

I think that anyon... (Below threshold)
Jumpinjoe:
I think that anyone who says there are no Democrats supporting anything other than "cut and run" simply isn't listening to the debate

The best thing you could do then for my sake is to cite examples. But then if I felt like roaming the Internet I could cite prominent Democrats advocating "cut and run" which makes up the true leadership.

Seriously, we could tit-for-tat with that. Maybe you could post this plan for me. I mean really, you are posting here to convert the readers here, so here is your chance. Make your case.

And because you hit one my "language nazi" hot buttons, it's "toe the line" not "tow the line

Wow, who da thunk, especially since I spent 20 years in the Army. It makes sense to me as "towing" (pulling along the agenda) .

But then like I said, I spent 20 years in the Army, so I don't have more better smarts- ;-)

The best thing you could... (Below threshold)
Brian:

The best thing you could do then for my sake is to cite examples. But then if I felt like roaming the Internet I could cite prominent Democrats advocating "cut and run"

That's just begging the question. You can certainly find examples of what you would call "cut and run". But that was Rance's point in the first place:

even though their opponents try to paint them as being one or the other.

So you can find a Dem who advocates an accelerated and phased transition to Iraqi security forces, and you'd just call that "cut and run". That's a cop out, exactly as Rance described.

So you can find a ... (Below threshold)
Jumpinjoe:
So you can find a Dem who advocates an accelerated and phased transition to Iraqi security forces, and you'd just call that "cut and run

No, if I found a Democrat that advocated what you state, then I'd call him "Joe Lieberman" backing Presidents Bush's plan.

Man, you guys are going to have to give me some examples of who these people are and what they said. These blanket statements of these moderate Democrats pushing a phased transition without giving terrorists a concrete timetable are leaving me scratching my head.

LOL! "Presidents Bush's pla... (Below threshold)
Brian:

LOL! "Presidents Bush's plan"? Espoused by Democrats, ridiculed by Republicans everywhere. Then he was for it after he was against it.

There's no way to answer you. Since "stay the course" now means "timetable with benchmarks", it's all just spin, spin, spin.

No need to waste time with you. If you want some Dems' plans to ridicule, go do your own research.

No need to waste t... (Below threshold)
Jumpinjoe:
No need to waste time with you. If you want some Dems' plans to ridicule, go do your own research

I noticed that since you couldn't provide a link or quote you diverted to an angry tirade. That reminds of other moonbats that can't discuss the issues, so instead they throw pies at those that can't intellectually debate with.

What's up with that?

All I asked for was an example in a "kum-by-ya" tone, and all I get is negative vibes.

Why am I not surprised?

Jumpinjoe,Please t... (Below threshold)
nehemiah:

Jumpinjoe,

Please try not to have an honest discussion with the libs. They think Castro and Stalin were good leaders (and Reagan and Bush are bad). The Bible talkis about people like this -- those who called bad "good", and those who called good "bad".

So who cares if they keep pretending that the Dems have a secret plan that no one on earth has heard of? Brian nor his mom would care.

The Bible talkis a... (Below threshold)
Jumpinjoe:
The Bible talkis about people like this -- those who called bad "good", and those who called good "bad".

LOL, in the Superman comics they call this same thing "Bizarro World".




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