More On Turnout (Wizbang)

From the RNC:

NATIONAL

Of the precincts that the RNC is monitoring turnout, we have a ½% turnout advantage over the 2004 turnout (GOP precincts are turning out at 32.9% of 2004 vote while DEM precincts are turning out at 32.5% of 2004 vote)

Many states like Colorado, Nevada, Arizona have 25% of votes cast before election day.

ARIZONA

There were 60K more ballots submitted by Republicans before Election Day - and 41% of the state has already voted.

In 2004 Exit Polling was off by 3.5% (they had it at 7%, actual results was 10.5%)

CONNECTICUT

In the precincts that the RNC is tracking turnout, GOP precincts are turning out at 8% higher rate (42% to 34%) from the 2004 vote.

FLORIDA

Republicans have a 140K advantage though absentee and early voting before Election Day - and 36% of the state has already voted.

Exit polling got it wrong in 2000 and wrong in 2004 (4% off in 2004)

Keep that in mind when reading the depressing numbers posted by Kathryn Jean Lopez at The Corner.

Update: Jim Geraghty says a "plugged in" Republican is telling him that a 7 point lead in the exit polls is a dead heat.

Update II: Ace says to chill over the exit polls and that there appears to be some trouble with the Virginia exit polls.

Fox News is showing Northrup with a razor thin lead at this time.

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Comments (16)

Source: International Heral... (Below threshold)

1. Posted by Lee | November 7, 2006 6:40 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

Lee:

Source: International Herald Tribune:

Highlights from national exit poll in U.S. midterm elections

Highlights from preliminary results of a national voter survey conducted for The Associated Press in Tuesday's midterm elections:

IRAQ:

A strong majority -- about six in 10 voters -- disapproved of the war in Iraq.

Only a third said the war has improved the long-term security of the United States, down from almost half -- 46 percent -- in the 2004 national exit poll. Some two-thirds said Iraq was very important to their vote, and they strongly favored Democratic House candidates.

ISSUES:

Despite the importance of Iraq, even more voters said the economy, government corruption and scandal were very important to their votes. Eight of 10 said the economy was very important; almost as many said corruption and scandals were very important. Terrorism was rated at least as important as Iraq.

LOCAL vs. NATIONAL ISSUES:

Far more voters said national issues mattered more than local issues in their House vote, but there was no difference in how those groups voted in House contests.

PESSIMISTIC MOOD:

Four in 10 voters said they expect life for the next generation to be worse than life today; three in 10 said it would be better.

JOB APPROVAL:

More than twice as many voters said they felt angry toward President George W. Bush as felt enthusiastic. About four in 10 voters approved of how Bush is handling his job, slightly more than say that about Congress.

Posted on November 7, 2006 18:40

KO says its over! Heavy nu... (Below threshold)

2. Posted by UncleZeb | November 7, 2006 6:47 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

UncleZeb:

KO says its over! Heavy numbers against Bush. Oh well whatever.

Posted on November 7, 2006 18:47

We will find out if the ter... (Below threshold)

3. Posted by theExecutioner | November 7, 2006 6:58 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

theExecutioner:

We will find out if the terrorists win tonight.

Posted on November 7, 2006 18:58

We'll find out if the Ameri... (Below threshold)

4. Posted by Lee | November 7, 2006 6:59 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

We'll find out if the American People win tonight.

Posted on November 7, 2006 18:59

I'm a Democrat that decided... (Below threshold)

5. Posted by Really | November 7, 2006 7:05 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

Really:

I'm a Democrat that decided to vote Republican.

Posted on November 7, 2006 19:05

Yes, if the Republicans kee... (Below threshold)

6. Posted by theExecutioner | November 7, 2006 7:07 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

Yes, if the Republicans keep control, the American people will win.

Posted on November 7, 2006 19:07

Lee, Bush is not running in... (Below threshold)

7. Posted by Zelsdorf Ragshaft III | November 7, 2006 7:20 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

Zelsdorf Ragshaft III:

Lee, Bush is not running in this election. But that is all you have because you have no position on anything productive. I wonder if it is too late to have you aborted.

Posted on November 7, 2006 19:20

Lee said, "We'll find out i... (Below threshold)

8. Posted by Huh? | November 7, 2006 7:20 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

Huh?:

Lee said, "We'll find out if the American People win tonight"

Since you're a Dem, I assume you mean if the Dems win, the American People win. So does that mean Reps aren't American People?

If the American people win,... (Below threshold)

9. Posted by pagar | November 7, 2006 7:22 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

pagar:

If the American people win, the terrorists and their liberal supporters will have lost.

Posted on November 7, 2006 19:22

When I flipped channels for... (Below threshold)

10. Posted by theExecutioner | November 7, 2006 7:32 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

When I flipped channels for a minute from CNN to MSNBC (during a commercial) I swear that Keith Oberman and Chris Mattews were having an orgasm.

Posted on November 7, 2006 19:32

"Chill out" is good advice.... (Below threshold)

11. Posted by Jim Addison | November 7, 2006 7:49 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

Jim Addison:

"Chill out" is good advice.

The exit poll from CT showed Lieberman winning by only 3%. I'll bet on 10% when the count is done. 7% off may be a good rule of thumb.

Posted on November 7, 2006 19:49

Wow - Olbermann just did a ... (Below threshold)

12. Posted by snowballs | November 7, 2006 8:09 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

snowballs:

Wow - Olbermann just did a left Herkie, followed by a cartwheel!

Posted on November 7, 2006 20:09

Yes Lee, tell us, teach us.... (Below threshold)

13. Posted by Steve of Norway | November 7, 2006 8:23 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

Steve of Norway:

Yes Lee, tell us, teach us...if the democrats win, is that what America *really* is all about? And if they don't, are you going to revert to your petulant mocking ways if the American voter doesn't give Nancy Pelosi her spotlight?

Posted on November 7, 2006 20:23

Steve - The Republicans nev... (Below threshold)

14. Posted by Lee | November 7, 2006 8:48 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

Steve - The Republicans never represented America -- they represented the evangelical Right, big oil, defense industries, Haliburton, any lobbyist that had a nickel to throw in their direction, and themselves in their "do anything and say anything it takes to get re-elected" quest.

Listen, Steve, America is talking... loudly. Can you hear it?

Posted on November 7, 2006 20:48

Give me a break Lee...your ... (Below threshold)

15. Posted by Steve of Norway | November 7, 2006 9:08 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

Give me a break Lee...your party, the party of the trial lawyers, unions, big teacher...you *really* want to act all holier than thou?

Posted on November 7, 2006 21:08

Yeah, them fucking teachers... (Below threshold)

16. Posted by seamus | November 8, 2006 12:32 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

seamus:

Yeah, them fucking teachers. All educating our kids and shit. Fuck them. I'll take Haliburton any day. Or Enron. Or Focus on Family. And Jimmy Dobson. And Donald Rumsfeld and Msrk Foley. Thems is some real Americans!

Posted on November 8, 2006 00:32

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