It is now 2 AM on the east coast, so election day is already 2 hours old. Here are my final predictions on the United States Senate races.
Rhode Island - Republican hold
Pennsylvania - Democratic pick-up
Ohio - Democratic pick-up
Missouri - Republican hold
Montana - Republican hold
Tennessee - Republican hold
Virginia - Republican hold
The race I am least confident about is Virginia, but I felt Allen's close was very strong. There is some indication that Pennsylvania and Ohio are tightening. I am basing my predictions on my sense that there was too much ground to be made up in a few days, but I would be more than happy, more than happy, to be pleasantly surprised tomorrow night. I see Republican losses of 2 seats then from our vulnerable seats.
New Jersey - Democratic hold
Maryland - Republican pick-up
Michigan - Republican pick-up
Most people reading this are probably wondering if I have lost my marbles, but hear me out. In 2004, Mitchell Research correctly predicted the margin in Michigan when other polls were predicting a more substantial Democratic victory there. As for New Jersey, I hold out hope and, as is the case with the above mentioned states, would welcome a pleasant surprise.
Bottom Line: I see no net change in the United States Senate.
In the House, I predict Republicans will lose 16 seats (2 in CT, 2 in NY, 2 in OH, 2 in PA, 1 in IN, 1 in IA, 1 in NC, 1 in FL, and 1 in AZ, and 1 in CO) but win 2 Democratic seats in Georgia to keep control of that body by the smallest of margins. And yes, I believe Republicans will pull it out in Texas 22.
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Comments (22)
My Senate calls were virtua... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Jim Addison | November 7, 2006 2:45 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
My Senate calls were virtually identical to yours, except I wasn't willing to call Michigan a pick-up. Bouchard is closing hard, though, and Stabenow only drew 500 to a rally with Bill Clinton the other day in Detroit - they don't send him where he isn't needed, and that is a pathetic turnout in a 2000-seat venue.
My House prediction is -11, with a range of -5 to -16.
1. Posted by Jim Addison | November 7, 2006 2:45 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 7, 2006 02:45
2. Posted by baggi | November 7, 2006 2:52 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
My predictions differ slightly.
The Democrats will pick up 2 Senate seats and 10 Congressional seats. We'll win in florida btw and we'll win in texas.
2. Posted by baggi | November 7, 2006 2:52 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 7, 2006 02:52
3. Posted by nehemiah | November 7, 2006 5:12 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Remember to pray today. I am happy to see your predictions -- I get similar total numbers, though I called PA for Santorum, and did not count on Michigan -- but I'd be ecstatic to be wrong about Michigan.
I think we'll do better with the House seats -- I think we'll still keep a four to five seat majority there. I'll be voting today around 1300 Eastern.
3. Posted by nehemiah | November 7, 2006 5:12 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 7, 2006 05:12
4. Posted by USMC Pilot | November 7, 2006 6:35 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
I Already sent in my absentee ballet, but will be voting at 6:00AM, 7:00AM, 8:00AM, etc., etc., etc.. Wait a minute, I can't do that I'm not a Democrat.
4. Posted by USMC Pilot | November 7, 2006 6:35 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 7, 2006 06:35
5. Posted by epador | November 7, 2006 6:42 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Don't look 4 many posts from Lee til after polls close.
5. Posted by epador | November 7, 2006 6:42 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 7, 2006 06:42
6. Posted by epador | November 7, 2006 6:43 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
If Stabenow loses I'll br singing in the rain.
6. Posted by epador | November 7, 2006 6:43 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 7, 2006 06:43
7. Posted by Eric Lindholm | November 7, 2006 8:35 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
NO losses in the Senate?
Wow, I would *love* to be wrong on this, but I'm thinking at least three with no GOP pickups. Maryland is tough and Michigan is a real long-shot.
All eyes on Virginia for how the night's going to be.
7. Posted by Eric Lindholm | November 7, 2006 8:35 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 7, 2006 08:35
8. Posted by Lee | November 7, 2006 8:41 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
"Don't look 4 many posts from Lee til after polls close."
Don't look for accurate predictions from epador. lol!
8. Posted by Lee | November 7, 2006 8:41 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 7, 2006 08:41
9. Posted by Sharon | November 7, 2006 9:35 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
I agree! I agree! I live in Massachusetts so I have to be happy vicariously,but I love the predictions matching my own optimistic case - I think Santorum pulls it out as well as Bouchard. i think N.J. is a goner and maybe Ohio but we definately pick up Steele! Think about the future too. Look who was on the campaign trail: McCain,Guiliani,Romney,W,Laura Bush...who do the dems have? Kerry,Gore and Clinton(who only drew 300 people in MI).We are the future......
9. Posted by Sharon | November 7, 2006 9:35 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 7, 2006 09:35
10. Posted by Hugh | November 7, 2006 9:42 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Well at least Clinton drew the guy he was campaigning for. Too freaking funny. No?
10. Posted by Hugh | November 7, 2006 9:42 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 7, 2006 09:42
11. Posted by Hugh | November 7, 2006 9:49 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
By the way I just noticed the author of this thread wrote that absurd piece yesterday about Bush's popularity numbers. You had him going up to about 90% approval in 2 weeks or so by your logic. Which says nothing for the numbers you just plain made up out of thion air made up.
So your predicitons have about as much credibility as, say, this administration. LOL
11. Posted by Hugh | November 7, 2006 9:49 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 7, 2006 09:49
12. Posted by _Mike_ | November 7, 2006 9:52 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
THK:
"Vote early and vote often!"
12. Posted by _Mike_ | November 7, 2006 9:52 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 7, 2006 09:52
13. Posted by theExecutioner | November 7, 2006 10:03 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
It's interesting how the Democratic pollsters tend to show a huge Dem lead until we get close to election day when they can cover their butt with, "Well, it was within the margin of error."
13. Posted by theExecutioner | November 7, 2006 10:03 AM |
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Posted on November 7, 2006 10:03
14. Posted by OregonMuse | November 7, 2006 10:03 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
This one is wishful thinking.
14. Posted by OregonMuse | November 7, 2006 10:03 AM |
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Posted on November 7, 2006 10:03
15. Posted by Marty | November 7, 2006 10:52 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
One seat that nobody is considering is Minnesota. Every poll here has said that the race is a blowout for Amy Klobuchar, and yet the Governor's race is a tie. I just don't see how people who would support Tim Pawlenty could go and vote for Klobuchar on the same ballot in a 50-50 state. It would be the upset of the season. (Not putting any stock on it, but it would be something else.)
15. Posted by Marty | November 7, 2006 10:52 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 7, 2006 10:52
16. Posted by J. Fishman | November 7, 2006 11:04 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
You guys are drinking the kool aid. Please come back to reality!! I am a precinct captain in MD for Steele/Ehrlich but even I don't think we can win here. We can make it VERY close, but will lose by around 10,000 votes. We have zero chance in Michigan. We are probably going to lose Montana, Virginia and Rhode Island. Definitely losing PA and OH. so that means we are lucky if we ONLY lose 5 seats by holding Missouri. What are you guys looking at?!
16. Posted by J. Fishman | November 7, 2006 11:04 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 7, 2006 11:04
17. Posted by theExecutioner | November 7, 2006 11:30 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
I'm a Democrat and I don't think Democrats will pick up ANY seats. In fact, we will LOSE a few dozen. (I just thought I'd play the same game as the Democrats that claim to be Republican).
17. Posted by theExecutioner | November 7, 2006 11:30 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 7, 2006 11:30
18. Posted by Democrat Voter | November 7, 2006 12:04 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
I just voted 10 times, my dogs voted and all my dead grandparents voted.
Do you think it will help? I'm such a good democrat. I'll do anything for my party.
18. Posted by Democrat Voter | November 7, 2006 12:04 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 7, 2006 12:04
19. Posted by the Town Drunk | November 7, 2006 12:20 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
...and then someone slapped me and I sobered right up. This strange guy told the lady sitting behind the table that my name was Steve Irwin, not Bill Maher and I was there to vote. He directed me into this little booth and filled in a bunch of blanks behind the word "Democrat" for me. Then we stuck it in this machine. After we left the building, that same strange guy woke my neighbor buddy up from the next park bench and walked him in. It's so nice that people show an interest in people like me. :)
19. Posted by the Town Drunk | November 7, 2006 12:20 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 7, 2006 12:20
20. Posted by Wayne | November 7, 2006 1:55 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
I think there will be 6 to 15 House seats that are not even on anyone radar that will surprise most.
20. Posted by Wayne | November 7, 2006 1:55 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 7, 2006 13:55
21. Posted by Murdoc | November 7, 2006 2:04 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
I have real trouble believing that Stabenow loses in MI. I live in MI, and the Brouchard campaign has been next-to-invisible most of the time.
Besides, there are busloads of dead people voting in Detroit right now.
21. Posted by Murdoc | November 7, 2006 2:04 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 7, 2006 14:04
22. Posted by moseby | November 7, 2006 3:43 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Yeah on Monday I told many of my democratic voting neighbors that Election Day was moved to tomorrow (Wed). They just stuck their fingers up their noses and went inside.
22. Posted by moseby | November 7, 2006 3:43 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 7, 2006 15:43