Breaking: WaPo Withdraws its Projection of a Cardin Win (Wizbang)

Update: Allahpundit notes this:

Caveat: According to the Steele campaign:
Steele continues to overperform in Montgomery County. The precincts in PG left outstanding are more Republican and will move us up.

There are almost 200,000 absentee ballots - a record number - that have not been counted.

That's why they're not conceeding yet. It is mathematically possible for Steele to pull back in. It's unlikely, but possible.

Alert! The Washington Post has withdrawn its prediction that Democrat Ben Cardin has defeated Republican Michael Steele in Maryland, and Michael Steele has refused to concede. Fox has flashed the numbers and currently, Steele is still ahead of Cardin 51% - 47% with 45% of the votes are in.

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Cardin 494,527 52%
Steele 433,530 46%
Zeese 14,927 2%
Precincts:65% | Updated: 11:47 PM ET
****

Jim Geraghty at TKS is saying that well-connected Republicans don't buy the Cardin over Steele projection:

They don't buy the CNN and ABC call on Cardin. The early numbers have Steele up, and they have a lot of absentees that won't get counted for a while. That's based entirely on exit polls, which are wrong.

Comments (5)

I hope that is right. The l... (Below threshold)

1. Posted by Baggi | November 7, 2006 10:33 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

Baggi:

I hope that is right. The last poll I saw was Steele was slightly behind with less than half the precincts reporting.

It will be my hearts delight if this one turns out for Steele. Even if we win the Senate by only 3 seats (4 if steele wins) doesn't matter to me. I'd be willing to exchange someone for Steele. He looks like a bright light in the GOP future.

Posted on November 7, 2006 22:33

Fox News specifically said ... (Below threshold)

2. Posted by Jim Addison | November 7, 2006 10:58 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

Jim Addison:

Fox News specifically said their call was NOT based on exit polls, which means it was drawn from the results in target precincts. That's the "old school" way of projecting winners: key precincts for both sides are selected and their results charted through past wins and losses. Then the new election's results from those precincts are compared.

It's still a projection, but much more accurate than exit polls. I'm guessing Steele failed to amass the sort of margins in Prince George County he would have needed to offset Baltimore County.

Posted on November 7, 2006 22:58

FoxNews has announced that ... (Below threshold)

3. Posted by BrandonInBatonRouge | November 7, 2006 11:12 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

BrandonInBatonRouge:

FoxNews has announced that the Washington Post has withdrawn their declaration of a Cardin win and are considering pulling theirs back as well.

Posted on November 7, 2006 23:12

Michael Barone has been bre... (Below threshold)

4. Posted by Lorie Byrd | November 7, 2006 11:37 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

Lorie Byrd:

Michael Barone has been breaking down the precincts and seems to be defending the call in favor of Cardin saying Steele has not gotten enough votes in certain precincts necessary for a Republican to win. I am still holding out hope though.

Posted on November 7, 2006 23:37

Unreal. In one window (CNN ... (Below threshold)

5. Posted by Tom Wannamaker | November 7, 2006 11:38 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

Tom Wannamaker:

Unreal. In one window (CNN Pipeline), I'm watching Cardin's celebration speech. In the other window (Fox News), I see the MD vote tally go from 49-48 Cardin ... then 49-49 even ... then 51-48 Steele, while ol' Ben is doing the high five, handing out the game ball, talking about the job he's gonna do starting tomorrow. I guess Ben ain't watching the tube while he's behind the podium.

Posted on November 7, 2006 23:38