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Oops! The Predictions for a Terrible Hurricane Season Were Way Off

With all the hype about last year's hurricanes being the result of global warming, we were told to prepare for an even worse season this year.

It didn't happen. It wasn't even close. Thank God.

It was not the hurricane season we expected, thank you.


With cataclysmic predictions that hurricanes would swarm from the tropics like termites, no one thought 2006 would be the most tranquil season in a decade.

Barring a last-second surprise from the tropics, the season will end Thursday with nine named storms, and only five of those hurricanes. This year is the first season since 1997 that only one storm nudged its way into the Gulf of Mexico.

Still, Florida was hit by two tropical storms, Alberto and Ernesto. But after the pummeling of the previous two years, the storms barely registered on the public's radar.

So what happened? Lots.

Storms were starved for fuel after ingesting masses of dry Saharan dust and air over the Atlantic Ocean. Scientists say the storm-snuffing dust was more abundant than usual this year.

In the season's peak, storms were curving right like errant field goals. High pressure that normally hunkers near Bermuda shifted far eastward, and five storms rode the clockwise winds away from Florida.

Finally, a rapidly growing El Nino, a warming of water over the tropical Pacific Ocean, shifted winds high in the atmosphere southward. The winds left developing storms disheveled and unable to become organized.

As they say about the stock market: Past results are no indication of future performance.

Let's hope that next year will be as tranquil as this year has been.

Hat tip: Drudge


Comments (27)

Algore is downrange huffing... (Below threshold)
Scrapiron:

Algore is downrange huffing and puffing to bring back the hurricanes. The windbag might just do it. What's next, a food shortage created by Algore himself.

It is an interesting lesson... (Below threshold)
DaveD:

It is an interesting lesson year after year to hear of the combination of recently past events that contributed to an intensely active or amazingly quiet hurricane season (or anywhere in between). The assessments always seem much more complex than those offered up by "lay environmentalists" with no scientific training who can confidently outline exactly what we need to do to assuredly preempt the worst of these weather-related catastrophes far into the future.

Next year's hurricane seaso... (Below threshold)
Mark L:

Next year's hurricane season is almost certainly going to be worse than this year's because this year's was so mild.

It may not be a record-breaker -- almost certainly will not -- but it will be billed as the Worst Hurricane Season Ever because it is worse than any other in the memory of the MSM. Not a hard thing to achieve since the MSM's memory lasts between 6 to 18 months. Anything older than that is something that happened in the dim, far, no-longer-relevant ancient past.

But I thought hurricanes an... (Below threshold)

But I thought hurricanes and global warming were going to destroy the world. Al Gore said so.

I saw an advertisement by f... (Below threshold)
kevino:

I saw an advertisement by former Vice President Gore for his movie, and he added material in which he declined to talk about the hurricane season. Instead, he cited the very bad Typhoons as evidence of global warming.

Two possible explanations: ... (Below threshold)
Old Coot:

Two possible explanations: 1) Gaia was calmed by anticipating the results of the November election; or 2) A change in Teddy Kennedy's (D-Chivas) diet resulting in reduced flatulence. Take your pick.

Well what became of all tho... (Below threshold)
spurwing plover:

Well what became of all those diasaterous hurricanes we were suppost to be having becuase of GLOBAL WARMING wasnt that what was predicted by AL GORE in his dumb movie A INCONVENT TRUTH? wasnt that what the idiots in GREENPEACE were predicting? too bad but it looks like their prediction were wrong i mean these are the false prophets of today

This year's severe hurrican... (Below threshold)
Eric:

This year's severe hurricane season is further proof of global warming.

Oops! What I meant to say is.

This year's mild hurricane season is further proof of global warming.

alGore's NEXT movie will be... (Below threshold)
Justrand:

alGore's NEXT movie will be titled: "An Incontinent Truth" and will deal with his persistent bladder problems...which have led to him pissing away his political career!

There was a time when Hurri... (Below threshold)
bill:

There was a time when Hurricane season meant the last two weeks of August and September. That was before all the crapola about global warming.

Most residents of Florida knew this season was toast when the first cold front pushed through south Florida in late September. As the season comes to a close, the Gulf water temp off the SWFL coast is a balmy 63. The kingfish have long since showed in Key West and the snow birds are here in force.

Want to be ahead of the curve, look at the sun activity 2-3 months before August to get your predictions. Last year the sun was humming, this year it was quite.

Ever wonder why all the crap about global warming ignores the sun, the only source of weather on the planet? Doubt me, try getting along without it. The rest you can take with large handful of salt.

Also overlooked is that the... (Below threshold)
cubanbob:

Also overlooked is that the 2004 and 2005 storm seasons hurricanes removed a lot of the heat from the gulf that had built up from prior years of relative storm inactivity.

Take the block of ice out o... (Below threshold)
Scrapiron:

Take the block of ice out of Algore's head and put in on the ice cap. That will double the size of the ice cap immediately.

Global warming = Raving of idots.

There is some stirring of t... (Below threshold)
bill:

There is some stirring of the deep water gulf when hurricanes go through, but for the most part, the stirring is temporary and mr sun warms her right back up. Doesn't last a season, but the seasons and currents do vary year to year. This year's Gulf temps were up, but not high as the sun took the year off. Sunspots were negligible all year.

Yeah, I fish deep water in the gulf, so these things, temperatures, loop currents, and general weather conditions are important if you want to catch fish and not drown, the last is always a good thing :-). We generally venture out under 100 miles offshore.

Get your sea surface fix right here http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gm/index.html or here
http://marine.rutgers.edu/mrs/sat_data/?nothumbs=0 Plenty to give you all the information you need. If you are inclined, Mr sun can be watched nicely here ... http://www.spaceweather.com/

When I was a kid, we studied the sun, solar wind and their effects on the Earth at Rice University Space Science. Learned a lot, most of which proves al gore is a blithering idiot. For one, the heating of the Earth's upper atmosphere due to CMEs is much more than most expect. Sometimes it gets so bad, the atmosphere expands and causes the space station to have to continually motor to higher orbit due to the increase atmospheric drag. I wonder where the heat goes.

Wonder how many in the lib ... (Below threshold)
Gianni:

Wonder how many in the lib MSM had to throw away articles(written last winter) 'proving' Gore is right, based on how bad the 2006 season was?

If Albore would lose 75 lbs, his world wouldnt be so hot.

These guys are psuedo scientists.

The libs wrong again? Say ... (Below threshold)
Jo:

The libs wrong again? Say it ain't so....
Yawn.

Great, that means we can ke... (Below threshold)
observer 5:

Great, that means we can keep spewing pollutants into the atmosphere.

All that wind apparently we... (Below threshold)
Peter F.:

All that wind apparently went into "An Inconvenient Truth".

The poke at the alarmist Gore aside, the truth behind this year's hurricane season and the 2005 hurricane season, lies somewhere in between.

For some reason the idiots ... (Below threshold)
Steve L.:

For some reason the idiots at the National Hurrican Center keep denying that Global Warming® is causing more and more and bigger and bigger hurricanes. I mean, where do they get off saying stuff like that? Haven't they seen Al Gore's movie?

Scientists!

Yes, when something does ha... (Below threshold)
Mitchell:

Yes, when something does happen (Katrina), it's global warming. And even if it doesn't (2006 storms), it's global warming.

That's a nice little feature, isn't it?

Oops! The Predictions fo... (Below threshold)
Brian:

Oops! The Predictions for a Terrible Hurricane Season Were Way Off

Oops! The Predictions for a Quick Iraq Victory Were Way Off

Oops! The Predicti... (Below threshold)
Mac Lorry:
Oops! The Predictions for a Quick Iraq Victory Were Way Off

Can you cite who made that prediction or is it just a straw man?

Are you kidding?Se... (Below threshold)
Brian:

Are you kidding?

See the collected works of Bush, Cheney, and Rumsfeld.

Since you're either feigning stupidity or you're baiting me for some spin-full argument, I'll let you do your own Googling.

You can start with "greeted as liberators", "last throes", and "I doubt six months".

Brian,It was your ... (Below threshold)
Mac Lorry:

Brian,

It was your off thread statement, so either back it up or eat it. Or maybe you think the war in Iraq has something to do with the quiet hurricane season.

Yes, it was off-thread, but... (Below threshold)
Brian:

Yes, it was off-thread, but you responded to it, so get over it.

I did back it up. You can either hand-wave it away, or you can respond substantively. I see you chose the former.

I did back it up.<... (Below threshold)
Mac Lorry:
I did back it up.

Ok, I'll debunk it with the same authority you backed it up with. Here it is. The administration told us from the beginning it was going to be a long process, and in that they have been proven correct.

Oh, I never said they were ... (Below threshold)
Brian:

Oh, I never said they were always wrong. That's one of several areas where there was agreement all around. "It will be a long process". "Americans will die". "The sun will rise tomorrow". You don't have to be a genius to get the obvious things right.

So, from our examples, it appears that they were correct when agreeing with Democrats, and incorrect when disagreeing with Democrats. That clears a lot up.

First off this last harrica... (Below threshold)
Nathan:

First off this last harricane season was low becuase of the el nino affect that started up near the equator making the storms move north instead of west this made them not strengthin becuase they traveled over cooler waters. Second
Mr. Gore i think made a very direct and truthful film, that just as he said the congress didnt react like he thought they would, in turn you ppl havent reacted you do just as the ppl of the days of noah did he told them a great flood was coming and they mocked him. So you go to options live your life like your doing sit by and do nothing or make sure your children and grand children have a life they can live.




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