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Global War - Part 2

There is an understandable focus on American actions and intentions, especially since the MSM is obsessed with finding fault with any and all American objectives. However, in both historical and modern contexts, there are a number of significant players, whose objectives are every bit as "global" as those of the United States. Also, the fact that we do not operate in a vacuum, but in an environment influenced by all the separate players, means that these different directives must be considered in forming a comprehensive understanding of the world's condition, and to determine future priorities and strategies.

First, we must understand that despite their losses in past conflicts, it is incorrect to presume that Fascism and Communism have ceased to operate on the world stage. Iran's present regime, for instance, operates in a framework of political and military objectives which are essentially Fascist in character. Also, despite the fall of Communism as a feasible economic theory, the Communist style of political regime remains in control of a number of countries, especially for cult of personality regimes like the Chavez dictatorship in Venezuela.

Speaking of Communists, it is all too easy to forget that the nation with the world's largest population remains Communist in doctrine and legal construction. It should also be noted that China's military growth is proceeding at a rate faster than any other nation on earth, for reasons never yet stated by Beijing's Politburo. That military growth includes rocket delivery of military satellites (and a Satellite Interception Platform), a new generation of electric-motor submarines, and development of aircraft carriers. This can mean only an intention to project power, to establish military control in support of a Hegemony.

We should also consider that there are a number of groups and nations which have cooperated on several levels towards common goals. The amorphous construction of Al Qaeda, at times, is partly due to the fact that different groups may claim or deny cooperation as it suits their aims. The principle aim for these Middle East groups and nations as a whole is to drive away the United States as a military force, because the U.S. alone is capable of thwarting major actions by an Anti-Israeli alliance.

Also important to note is the rising strength and significance of the nations of India and Pakistan, whose border feuds have never been resolved, but who have both indisputably developed nuclear arms. At this time, U.S. military presence in the Middle East helps to restrain hostility between the two nations, but if the Americans appear to retreat, this will destabilize the peninsula.

Looking back at Venezuela again, it should be noted that a number of nations hope to establish a Hegemony in South America, and Brazil looks much more like a target than an aggressor.

And then there is Europe, a continent which has never been able to resolve its differences, but always found new arguments on those occasions where they settled old ones. The American lead kept them out of trouble for nearly a century, but the diminishing American presence has not led the Europeans to think and act more responsibly, but even less so.

Just a few things to think about.


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Comments (26)

What a pile of tripe. The ... (Below threshold)
ssbn04:

What a pile of tripe. The MSM has finally woken up to the fact that the American public was sold a bill of goods as justification for the Iraq invasion. A growing Communist China, Fascist-leaning Iran and the stability of the Indian sub-continent are red herrings spouted after the fact by people such as yourself eager to defend the indefensible: The US invaded another sovereign nation for no just reason.

"no just reason."I... (Below threshold)

"no just reason."

I could cite a dozen or so answers to this one, but here's just one, ssbn:

So Saddam had fully complied with all the terms of his 1991 surrender? You know, the "you do this and we'll stop blowing the crap out of you" agreement that ended the first Gulf War?

That's how it works. Two countries are at war. One surrenders and agrees to conditions. If they don't keep those condition's, then the war's back on.

J.

He's got it wrong. It was ... (Below threshold)
kim:

He's got it wrong. It was Iraq who invaded Kuwait, for no just reason.
==============================

Good job DJ. Spot on.... (Below threshold)
Mike:

Good job DJ. Spot on.

Unfortunately the truth is a major boil on the bottoms of the "America is the sole force of evil in the world" crowd.

Everyone is under the impre... (Below threshold)
Black32zx:

Everyone is under the impression that we went to Iraq for it's rich oil reserves. I would say that's 60% true But there's one little thing everyone forgets.The other 40% of the reason was that Saddam declared he would start accepting Euro's for oil. And for the survival or the USA that is definately a big NO NO......

Everyone is under the impre... (Below threshold)
Black32zx:

Everyone is under the impression that we went to Iraq for it's rich oil reserves. I would say that's 60% true But there's one little thing everyone forgets.The other 40% of the reason was that Saddam declared he would start accepting Euro's for oil. And for the survival or the USA that is definately a big NO NO......

Yes, yes, you could NOT NOT... (Below threshold)
kim:

Yes, yes, you could NOT NOT work the monetary markets for George Soros.
==================================

is george soros your idle? ... (Below threshold)
Black32zx:

is george soros your idle? so he brought down Englands bank not hard to do with the shape it was in and the info he had. read history before posting on things you no little about. then you'll find that it wasn't him alone. he started to ball rolling.

George Soros: America's Idl... (Below threshold)
Who's John Galt?:

George Soros: America's Idle.

Alright, I'll bite; what wa... (Below threshold)
kim:

Alright, I'll bite; what was so NO NO about Euros, not dollars, and why would that compel all those Democrats to vote for war?
===========================

Idol... (Below threshold)
Heralder:

Idol

Unless Saddam also intended... (Below threshold)
cirby:

Unless Saddam also intended to shut down all international banks and organizations that exchanged one form of cash for another, "euros for oil" is pretty much nothing but a public relations ploy (and a way to make it easier to bribe European officials).

...and I'm still waiting for some of that free oil we should be getting from Iraq. If we went in there for the oil, why aren't we getting any of it?

The only way you can justify the concept is "we went in there to take the oil out of Saddam's hands." And that qualifies as a huge DUH, since we went in to take EVERYTHING out of Saddam's hands.

what was so NO NO about ... (Below threshold)
Who's John Galt?:

what was so NO NO about Euros...?

I guess he went back to being idol.

You know, B32zzzz, if we ha... (Below threshold)
kim:

You know, B32zzzz, if we had grabbed all the oil we could be paying off all these factions instead of refereeing them fighting over it.
==============================

Hey, come back here. I wan... (Below threshold)
kim:

Hey, come back here. I wanta know why you really think we went to war. Maybe it's something to do with one of DJ's themes, huh? Lots of opportunity for comment and insight, there.
===============================

It should also be noted ... (Below threshold)

It should also be noted that China's military growth is proceeding at a rate faster than any other nation on earth, for reasons never yet stated by Beijing's Politburo.

Isn't China's military spending still about 1/10 of the US? If so, and I were them, I would also be increasing it as fast as I could. Why should we expect any country to accept a position of military inferiority to us when they have the economic means to redress that imbalance?

Ultimately, if you project far enough into the future, China will surpass the US economically due to the fact that they have 5 times our population and a system that is becoming more market-oriented and capitalistic every day. A country's military capacity is essentially a function of it's economic capacity since military spending has to be financed by that country. So, it's difficult to see, in the very long run, how we can maintain military superiority over them given the fact that their economy will eventually be probably much larger than ours.

Given these facts, I think it's makes sense for us to be discussing arms control with China that could head off (or at least restrain) some of their spending. Particularly, in the air of space-based defense systems. Our policy, however, is the exact opposite. We are essentially guaranteeing that we will have a costly race in space-based defense systems with China in the coming decades.

Here's a prediction, Larkin... (Below threshold)
DJ Drummond:

Here's a prediction, Larkin:

China will continue to improve its GDP for the next two decades, but will suffer at least three major crashes in that time.

China's incrdibly myopic foreign policy will come back to bite it, hard, specifically in Southwest Asia.

China's military will be used to suppress at least one more popular uprising in a coastal city before 2012. Like Tienamen, it will be bloody but - outside Asia - ignored.

Japan will alter its strategic policy to address China as an emerging threat.

I will address all that in more detail in a later post. China deserves special attention

"Alright, I'll bite; what w... (Below threshold)
bryanD:

"Alright, I'll bite; what was so NO NO about Euros, not dollars_kim",

Since the US prints money with no intrinsic value(fiat currency), when markets are dollar-based, we can exchange our monopoly money for the product or commodity at (basically) no REAL cost to the treasury (because there are more dollars being printed 24/7). There IS deficits and inflation as a result, but most people don't connect the dots there. It's all in-house.

If Oil is denominated in Euros, then it's Euros we must use, either through the Exchange (too expensive $:Euro) or by selling pounds of flesh, i.e. bonds, etc or creating more Debt. And foriegn debt can't be just written off, because those IOUs are tied to more than paper money. Or not OUR paper money. We need to meet the exact value of the note.

Maybe most telling as a case for war, is the private Federal Reserve System collects beaucoups Interest on every dollar, but not on Euros. So it's lose-lose. With dollars it win-lose= free!

I admit, the above is probably riddled with errors, but the gist is correct. (A little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing!)

(too expensive $:Euro)</... (Below threshold)
cirby:

(too expensive $:Euro)

...except that the exchange rate holds, no matter WHAT is being bought or sold.

If the dollar is running 1.5 to 1 versus Euros, then someone with Euros who wants to buy (for example) crude oil on the open market will still spend the same amount of money. They don't suddenly get more oil for that single Euro, and we don't get the oil for a dollar because they're using our cash to buy it.

So, under the numbers above, you'd spend (for example) seventy-five dollars for a barrel of crude, but only fifty Euros, no matter WHAT currency it's "trading" under. All the Euro/dollar switch would mean would be a little PR victory for Saddam AND the Euro, and the international oil markets would just have to do one more dollar/Euro conversion when the sales went through.

It's by no means a reason to go to war, and pretending that it could be shows a bizarre misconception of how international money markets work.

Looks to me like the US nee... (Below threshold)
Zelsdorf Ragshaft III:

Looks to me like the US needs to prepare to launch backup satelite systems in case of an attack on existing systems, due to our reliance on GPS for most military hardware. Second, we need to maintain a technological advantage such as laser firing 747s, and anti ballistic missle systems and a further development of stealth technology. We cannot match the Chinese in man power, but we can maintain a technological advantage if we can keep the Clintons out of the White House.

Yes, yes, bD, you may NOT N... (Below threshold)
kim:

Yes, yes, bD, you may NOT NOT work the monetary exchanges for Soros.
==========================

Thanks, cirby. bD should b... (Below threshold)
kim:

Thanks, cirby. bD should be too smart to get sucked into backing up Buzznightmare's respectively phony and bizarre rationales for entering the war.

C'mon, bD, you knew that was a loser. You could get a little street cred if you'd savaged him, too. Been watch Roger and Me all afternoon?
================================

China will continue to i... (Below threshold)

China will continue to improve its GDP for the next two decades, but will suffer at least three major crashes in that time.

Certainly possible, but they look pretty strong right now. Their foreign currency reserves keep climbing and the entrepreneurial spirit of their populace is pretty impressive.


China's military will be used to suppress at least one more popular uprising in a coastal city before 2012. Like Tienanmen, it will be bloody but - outside Asia - ignored.

Another audacious prediction. When Tienanmen happened I assumed it wouldn't be long before we would have a full-scale revolution, but that hasn't happened. The Chinese people seem perfectly satisfied to exchange prosperity for democracy.

Recessions and revolutions could certainly slow their progress but can it really turn the tide that seems to be working in their favor? Simple math says that a country with 5 times as many people as we have will eventually have a bigger economy so long as they continue to reform and move away from centralized state control. And we've already seen plenty of evidence that the Chinese are pretty good at capitalism when they are allowed. I mean, just look at Taiwan, Singapore Hong Kong. Tiny countries (or colonies) with little natural resources that have become wildly prosperous. China is trying to repeat that success on a large scale.

Don't forget India, Russia,... (Below threshold)
DJ Drummond:

Don't forget India, Russia, Brazil, though. Examples of economies almost ruined by the way their government tried to overplan everything.

Capitalism works, but 'Central Committees' dont like it without a leash. A big, heavy, friction-inducing leash.

But as I said, China gets its own article.

Don't forget that the PRC h... (Below threshold)
LenS:

Don't forget that the PRC has a total fertility rate of 1.6 -- way below replacement levels. Obviously, the one child policy has created a nation of kids with no siblings, cousins and sometimes no first cousins once removed. Interestingly, Macao, Hong Kong and Taiwan have even lower rates which implies that as the PRC gets more wealth, their will be even further drops in the rate.

It's very difficult to engage in bloody wars with your neighbors when each combat death represents the sole heir of 6 or 14 adults (two parents, four grandparents, eight great-grandparents). In a culture with thousands of years of ancestor worship, that is no small matter.

The PRC already has the same percentage as the US for the under 15 population (20%) and is aging faster than the US (without anywhere near the same per capita wealth to pay for retirements).

The Population Reference Bureau is projecting that the US population will grow 40% by 2050 while the PRC will grow by 10% in that time frame. Worse for the PRC, the projection has the PRC population peeking sometime around 2025 and actually decreasing after that.

Just as communism destroyed Russia demographically, it's doing the same to China, just slower.

Since the US prints mone... (Below threshold)
James Cloninger:

Since the US prints money with no intrinsic value(fiat currency), when markets are dollar-based, we can exchange our monopoly money for the product or commodity at (basically) no REAL cost to the treasury (because there are more dollars being printed 24/7). There IS deficits and inflation as a result, but most people don't connect the dots there. It's all in-house.

Um...most countries print more money that what is currently in their precious metal reserves. Name me one country that is on a Gold Standard, please.

Monopoly money? Give me a bloody break...have you checked out Zimbabwe's (hyper)inflation rate yet? Currently ticking along at 1000% and increasing. Even monopoly money is worth more than the Zimbabwe dollar.

And our inflation rate? 2.8% or thereabouts.




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