Like a lot of people, I was outraged when it was revealed that the United States and Iran had had its first face-to-face diplomatic talks this week -- on Memorial Day, of all days. The fact that we had chosen to break decades of opposition with a nation that has killed so many Americans on the day when we honor those who died in our nation's service seemed, to me, a grotesque insult to their sacrifice.
In retrospect, though, I am starting to wonder if it was such a bad move.
Theodore Roosevelt famously said "Speak softly and carry a big stick, and you will go far."
Will Rogers once defined diplomacy as "the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock."
It now turns out that the timing of the talks might have been deliberate, but not because of Memorial Day. Because it turns out that the very same day that we sat down with Iran in Iraq to discuss their conduct inside Iraq, the United States Navy was waving around a very big stick.
Actually, two very big sticks.
A United States Navy Aircraft Carrier Strike Group (CSG) is, quite bluntly, the most powerful, most potentially devastating, most destructive force ever assembled in history. It consists of an aircraft carrier, about 90 warplanes of various models and capabilities, one or two cruisers, a squadron of two or three destroyers, one or two submarines, and non-combatant support ships.
Five days before the talks started, two of these forces sailed unannounced through the Straits of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf, along with an Amphibious Task Force. (Hat tip to Charles, who needs no linkage but deserves it anyway.)
This force is nowhere near sufficient to invade and occupy Iran. But it represents enough firepower to -- if I may use the appropriate military terminology here -- blow the motherloving shit out of large portions of the country. I would hazard a guess that within a week of all-out effort by the 20,000 sailors and Marines in these groups, Iran's military capabilities would be reduced to somewhere between "a pot to piss in" and "jack shit."
And those forces are hanging out just "below" Iran, off their shores in the Persian Gulf, sharpening their bayonets, rattling their sabres, and smiling evil grins.
Even more to the point, the ships crossed the Straits on the day that marked the precise expiration of a 60-day "grace period" the UN granted Iran over its nuclear weapons program.
Yeah, I wish the talks had been postponed a single day, to avoid their coinciding with Memorial Day. But in the bigger picture, I think that the timing was pretty damned good.
Now we just need to see how things play out. But I think that they're off on the right foot.
Comments (65)
"Nice country you got here.... (Below threshold)1. Posted by cirby | May 31, 2007 11:39 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
"Nice country you got here. Shame if something should happen to it."
"Things break."
"Yeah, things break."
1. Posted by cirby | May 31, 2007 11:39 AM |
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Posted on May 31, 2007 11:39
2. Posted by metprof | May 31, 2007 12:01 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Jay, you forgot the FFG frigates and the AOE supply vessel
2. Posted by metprof | May 31, 2007 12:01 PM |
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Posted on May 31, 2007 12:01
3. Posted by jhow66 | May 31, 2007 12:21 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Better watch your rear--the lefty smoochers will along shortly.
After watching the clip, that is some mighty big "sticks". Wonder who is sleeping in thier bunkers?
3. Posted by jhow66 | May 31, 2007 12:21 PM |
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Posted on May 31, 2007 12:21
4. Posted by _Mike_ | May 31, 2007 12:36 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
The best way to prevent the use of force is to present the convincing threat of force with no doubt of the outcome.
Oddly, those who advocate that force shouldn't be used, for any reason, make the likelihood of its necessity greater.
In in elementary school terms, I don't have to kick your ass for harassing me in order to get you to stop. I simply have to convince you that I can and will. Having 'friends' tell you that I won't, makes the likelihood of me actually having to, in order to convince you to stop the harassment, greater.
4. Posted by _Mike_ | May 31, 2007 12:36 PM |
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Posted on May 31, 2007 12:36
5. Posted by Lee Ward | May 31, 2007 12:39 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
"Like a lot of people, I was outraged when it was revealed that the United States and Iran had had its first face-to-face diplomatic talks this week".
Where do you get "lots of people", Jay? I haven't seen or talked to one person who is against detente and diplomacy when it comes to the middle east.
5. Posted by Lee Ward | May 31, 2007 12:39 PM |
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Posted on May 31, 2007 12:39
6. Posted by Doug Stewart | May 31, 2007 12:42 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
"Sticks and stones" -- is that what's scheduled to be left of Natanz, Bushehr and Esfahan?
6. Posted by Doug Stewart | May 31, 2007 12:42 PM |
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Posted on May 31, 2007 12:42
7. Posted by Lee Ward | May 31, 2007 12:46 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
And what do you nutcakes suggest we do to handle this threat?
Is it time to march on Moscow, or sit down and talk about it?
Only an idiot would choose the former...
Ok, time to cue the idiots...
7. Posted by Lee Ward | May 31, 2007 12:46 PM |
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Posted on May 31, 2007 12:46
8. Posted by P. Bunyan | May 31, 2007 12:52 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
"Ok, time to cue the idiots..."
Why? The king of all idiots already posted at 12:39 & 12:46 pm...
No need for more.
8. Posted by P. Bunyan | May 31, 2007 12:52 PM |
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Posted on May 31, 2007 12:52
9. Posted by John F Not Kerry | May 31, 2007 12:56 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Does anyone think the Iranians will try to grab a few of our sailors?
9. Posted by John F Not Kerry | May 31, 2007 12:56 PM |
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Posted on May 31, 2007 12:56
10. Posted by John F Not Kerry | May 31, 2007 12:57 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
So Russia is testing new missiles because we have set up missile defenses? Maybe we can bankrupt them again!
10. Posted by John F Not Kerry | May 31, 2007 12:57 PM |
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Posted on May 31, 2007 12:57
11. Posted by Scrapiron | May 31, 2007 12:59 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Actually we celebrated Memorial Day on a weekend to give the workers more time off, a few days before the actual Memorial Day date.
Thank God and the Mothers/Fathers of those that have served to protect our freedom in past years.
Too bad the anti-everything democrats are running a full blown Communist (Shrillary) for POTUS to do away with all freedoms. She thinks she can be the first in history to make it (communism) work. She's gonna take it from you and 'give' it to those too sorry to work for it. How far will the democrats go to soothe their wounded ego's from losing the 2000 election? BDS is alive and well in the democrat party.
11. Posted by Scrapiron | May 31, 2007 12:59 PM |
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Posted on May 31, 2007 12:59
12. Posted by Lee Ward | May 31, 2007 1:07 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Can't wait to see how you knuckleheads will l justify restarting the cold war and the arms race all in the same month -- how exciting! Happy days are here again!
Who's your candidate again -- let me make a note? Who's the preferred war monger among the fact-challenged right these days...? hmmm? Which of the Republican candidates is most like to fit into the "why negotiate when we can rattle our sabres instead" -- after all, Bush's efforts were so immensely popular with the American people.
I can't wait to see who you nuts trot out next to continue this rich tradition of losing elections started in '06.
12. Posted by Lee Ward | May 31, 2007 1:07 PM |
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Posted on May 31, 2007 13:07
13. Posted by langtry | May 31, 2007 1:09 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
I wish I could by into that, Jay Tea, but I have a really hard time thinking that we will actually follow through *if necessary*. Quite frankly, we seem reluctant to use the power at our disposal, even when scores of our GI's are getting blown away by Al Qaeda. If we won't use lethal force against a town in Iraq that we know is a stronghold of the terrorists killing our military men and women, why should I be convinced that we'll use against a rogue state that which we won't employ against a less "legitimate" but no-less-dangerous group of murderous Islamofacists?
13. Posted by langtry | May 31, 2007 1:09 PM |
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Posted on May 31, 2007 13:09
14. Posted by jp2 | May 31, 2007 1:17 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
How about Syria? Hezbollah? Now Iran...
Neo-cons have been stating for years and years that their should be absolutely no negotiation with these groups/governments. But as you know the Bush administration eventually meets with them.
Most neo-cons cowardly ignore the dissonance. Jay Tea puts a new twist on that though, claiming now that it's positive. He is wrong 90% of the time, but he sure is innovative.
14. Posted by jp2 | May 31, 2007 1:17 PM |
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Posted on May 31, 2007 13:17
15. Posted by Synova | May 31, 2007 1:19 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
We *are* reluctant, no matter that the left portrays Bush as a warmonger. (This was going on *before* 9-11 as well... Bin Laden, if he were going by our political rhetoric, could have expected that we'd either do nothing, just fold, or else nuke mecca or attack the Islamic world indiscriminately, thus finally getting all of those "moderate" muslems off their comfy backsides and engaged in the holy war.)
We are very reluctant to use decisive force.
I would like to point out, however, that "invade and occupy" would be a stupid plan for us in Iran. It's a different situation which calls for a different strategy.
As for Putin. He seemed a sane guy for a while. Now we hear about political assasinations and all sorts of vile stuff and somehow, sure, his actions are ALL OUR FAULT. This is, of course, because to certain people, everything that happens in the world is all our fault, always, no matter what.
(You gotta picture the Orbit lady saying those last three words.)
15. Posted by Synova | May 31, 2007 1:19 PM |
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Posted on May 31, 2007 13:19
16. Posted by Synova | May 31, 2007 1:27 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Lee, I know you love Putin, baby. And I know you'll vote for whomever is most likely to fold and kiss his ass.
And we'll all vote for the person most likely to rattle a saber because of that irrational belief we have that ass kissing is unhygenic.
16. Posted by Synova | May 31, 2007 1:27 PM |
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Posted on May 31, 2007 13:27
17. Posted by Synova | May 31, 2007 1:30 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Saber rattling *ended* the cold war... how is it logical to think that saber rattling would start it up again? Putin is doing what he's doing and blaming us when we haven't been "rattling" toward Russia at all, but rattling toward Iran. That's his free-will choice.
Putin makes his own decisions, if they are good or bad. News flash, Lee. America does *not* rule the world.
17. Posted by Synova | May 31, 2007 1:30 PM |
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Posted on May 31, 2007 13:30
18. Posted by Zelsdorf Ragshaft III | May 31, 2007 1:42 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Ward, you calling anyone a knuckle head is a laugh. Why don't you go over a bait the idiots that infest your blog? It is sort of like being called stupid by a fool. You, Lee, have no frame of reference. First, what the fuck does Russia firing a missle off have to do with U.S. Naval forces in the Persian gulf? Are you trying to start a subtopic here on Jay Tea's space? Just something for you to chew on Lee, we could simply turn out a few hundred MX or Peacekeeper Missles that would probably drive the Russian economy to bankruptsy. Here is a clue for you Lee. Seems Vlad is not looking forward happily to retirement. If he can creat a crisis maybe he can put it off. Otherwise in is ex President V. Putin.
18. Posted by Zelsdorf Ragshaft III | May 31, 2007 1:42 PM |
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Posted on May 31, 2007 13:42
19. Posted by cirby | May 31, 2007 2:10 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Can't wait to see how you knuckleheads will l justify restarting the cold war and the arms race all in the same month
Yeah, because Putin got his folks to design, build, and test that new missile all in less than four weeks, just because we were installing a ballistic missile defense system that would be able to stop ONE Russian missile's warheads under normal circumstances, out of the hundreds they'd be launching in a real war.
(Ignoring, of course, that the new missile began development in 1997, as a derivative of one of their older systems, and that they've tested it a couple of times before this.)
(And also ignoring that most of the Russian ICBM fleet won't be going over Poland in a real war, but that anything launched from Russia's client state Iran towards England and Germany would go right over the spot we're planning on installing those interceptors.)
(And, of course, ignoring Russia's "nonprovocative" ABM system that rings Moscow, with 100+ interceptors, and the hundreds of ABM-capable "SAMs" they have installed all over Russia, which just happen to be on tracks which would let them intercept missiles from the Mideast states and North Korea.)
It's nice to know that the Useful Idiots are still spouting whatever Moscow wants them to say, on cue. INternational ANSWER is still on the job. The checks from Moscow must still be coming in.
19. Posted by cirby | May 31, 2007 2:10 PM |
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Posted on May 31, 2007 14:10
20. Posted by Lee Ward | May 31, 2007 2:14 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
"First, what the fuck does Russia firing a missile off have to do with U.S. Naval forces in the Persian gulf?"
Russia fired off a missile test, taking another step towards a cold war arms race, in reaction to our stepped-up efforts in Eastern Europe which weren't first and properly preceded by diplomacy and detente, you fool.
In this post, you jackass, Jay is suggesting that detente and diplomacy with respect to Iran is uncalled for. Russia's missile firing and ratcheting-up of tough talk is a prime example, you moron, of the reasons Jay's beloved sabre-rattling doesn't work.
Do you have another questions? Come on, Zeldorf -- and be sure to use profanity again -- it really impresses the girls on the playground, you simple-minded Nazi-worshiping imbecile.
20. Posted by Lee Ward | May 31, 2007 2:14 PM |
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Posted on May 31, 2007 14:14
21. Posted by cirby | May 31, 2007 2:18 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Neo-cons have been stating for years and years that their should be absolutely no negotiation with these groups/governments. But as you know the Bush administration eventually meets with them.
"Negotiate" has a much different connotation when you're parked off the coast with that much firepower.
Now, if it were a Democratic "negotiation," instead of a huge fleet, we'd have Jimmy Carter supervising the Iranian elections and certifying them as valid, while Nancy Pelosi would be trying on the newest women's styles (black burqa, or black burqa with grey trim), and Al Gore would be giving lectures about how great the Iranians were for helping cut back on that evil greenhouse effect by raising oil prices.
21. Posted by cirby | May 31, 2007 2:18 PM |
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Posted on May 31, 2007 14:18
22. Posted by John F Not Kerry | May 31, 2007 2:19 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Didn't we win the Cold War? Just askin'.
22. Posted by John F Not Kerry | May 31, 2007 2:19 PM |
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Posted on May 31, 2007 14:19
23. Posted by MikeSC | May 31, 2007 2:22 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Bush tries to install missile defense with the support of the E European governments whose countries he's installing it in. We've offered to share it with ANYBODY for years. It takes a TRULY impressive mind to find a way to blame a desire to protect people from missiles for being "responsible" for a common thug like Putin (what next? His treatment of the former Soviet Republics was out fault TOO?) doing something like this.
Russia's decision here is, somehow, our fault.
But, hey, at least Lee doesn't blame the US for everything.
-=Mike
23. Posted by MikeSC | May 31, 2007 2:22 PM |
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Posted on May 31, 2007 14:22
24. Posted by cirby | May 31, 2007 2:24 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Russia fired off a missile test, taking another step towards a cold war arms race, in reaction to our stepped-up efforts in Eastern Europe which weren't first and properly preceded by diplomacy and detente, you fool.
Bullshit.
Putin claims that, but this test is just one in a series (for a system that's been in development for a DECADE), and has pretty much nothing to do with our proposed ABM system in Poland, except as a way to get people like yourself to put pressure on the West, in the hopes of keeping Russia "in charge" for a lot of Asia.
"Useful idiots," indeed.
24. Posted by cirby | May 31, 2007 2:24 PM |
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Posted on May 31, 2007 14:24
25. Posted by Who's John Galt? | May 31, 2007 2:36 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
you simple-minded Nazi-worshiping imbecile.
The irony.
25. Posted by Who's John Galt? | May 31, 2007 2:36 PM |
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Posted on May 31, 2007 14:36
26. Posted by Wizbang long gone | May 31, 2007 2:42 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Why, again, did Wizbang give this idiot Lee a platform? Are you wanting to turn into Daily Kos?
Or are you seeking traffic increase through daily games of "slap the moron lib"?
26. Posted by Wizbang long gone | May 31, 2007 2:42 PM |
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Posted on May 31, 2007 14:42
27. Posted by bryanD | May 31, 2007 2:42 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Lee is right on this one. As soon as the Warsaw Pact dissolved, the US tightened the military noose by building installations in former Warsaw Pact nations. This at a time when Yeltsin had invited in the Harvard rip-off crew to privatize many state holdings. Ukraine was even allowed to keep the Soviet Black Sea Fleet as a further sign of Russian military divestiture.
Then came the agitprop campaigns from US-financed "private groups". Most notably the Orange Revolution in the Ukraine playing off the old religious rivalries of Polish-oriented Catholics in the west, and the Russian-oriented Othodox east part of the country. Luckily the winning Catholic side was exposed as tools and utterly corrupt and lost their standing as a legitimate opposition, thus averting possible civil war.
So now the west has reverted to "allowing" phoney Chalabi-style gangster billionaire ex-pats to denounce Putin as illegitimate by hiring PR firms and thus, air-time as "news". The penultimate step to establishing a government in exile. How soon will arms be channelled in?
As for Iran. They haven't invaded anyone since the 1760s or something. Israel needs us worried and involved in the area to keep the welfare checks flowing in. Israel is one gigantic housing project.
Remember, Russia and Iran offered their assistance against AlQaeda. We ignored the Russians and said No to the Iranians.
27. Posted by bryanD | May 31, 2007 2:42 PM |
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Posted on May 31, 2007 14:42
28. Posted by Who's John Galt? | May 31, 2007 2:47 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Remember, Russia and Iran offered their assistance against AlQaeda.
I believe that you believe that.
28. Posted by Who's John Galt? | May 31, 2007 2:47 PM |
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Posted on May 31, 2007 14:47
29. Posted by cirby | May 31, 2007 2:54 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Lee is right on this one.
No, he's not. For one thing, he's claiming that the events of the last MONTH are what triggered Putin's claims, not the events since the late 1980s (and the collapse of the Soviet Union, which used to make noises just like Putin's making now).
Remember, Russia and Iran offered their assistance against AlQaeda. We ignored the Russians and said No to the Iranians.
Source, please. Considering that Iran is one of the strongest financial and political supporters of AQ, you're going to have to come up with something spectacular to back that up. And no, getting some senior Iranian official saying something like "we are willing to cooperate," with no specifics, is just naive.
If Iran seriously wanted to do something, they'd just have to run some cops by the safe houses they've been providing for AQ members for the last few years, and close off their border with Iraq to the AQ guys they keep sending over with Iranian money and weapons.
And Russia? They can claim to "offer assistance" all they want, but until they start doing things, it's just one more propaganda line for the (one more time) "useful idiots."
29. Posted by cirby | May 31, 2007 2:54 PM |
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Posted on May 31, 2007 14:54
30. Posted by bryanD | May 31, 2007 3:02 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Read Woodward's Plan of Attack. Lays it all out. Here's some background:
http://www.antiwar.com/porter/?articleid=8590
http://www.cdi.org/russia/johnson/5463.html
ps: consider changing name from "Who's John Galt" to "Where's My Ass"
30. Posted by bryanD | May 31, 2007 3:02 PM |
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Posted on May 31, 2007 15:02
31. Posted by cirby | May 31, 2007 3:20 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
That antiwar.com link is hilarious.
"The Iranians had real contacts with important players in Afghanistan and were prepared to use their influence in constructive ways in coordination with the United States,"
Yes, they had "real contacts," they were called "The Taliban." So this moron wanted us to enlist one of the primary backers of the Taliban to, well, help us unseat the Taliban and put in a NEW group to directly replace them. The rest of that article is basically "we should have worked with the Iranians so they could move right in and take over Afghanistan."
The second link is really funny, too.
"Putin on Monday coupled the offer for talks on Chechnya with his offer of limited support for the U.S.-led effort to combat global terrorism, which
Fleischer said included permission for humanitarian flights over Russian territory, intelligence information and help in potential search and rescue operations."
Yeah, that'll help. Notice the complete lack of specifics, and the "limited support" part of the deal.
From another bit of that second link:
"Hence, Russia's initial statements of support were modified by considerations unrelated to the anti-terrorist campaign, such as the desire to add legitimacy to its Chechnya campaign and to strengthen its influence in Central Asia."
Most of that second link just shows how desperate Putin has become to appear relevant, and goes a long way towards explaining why he made up that silly story about the ICBM test.
31. Posted by cirby | May 31, 2007 3:20 PM |
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Posted on May 31, 2007 15:20
32. Posted by brainy435 | May 31, 2007 3:29 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
"Russia fired off a missile test, taking another step towards a cold war arms race, in reaction to our stepped-up efforts in Eastern Europe which weren't first and properly preceded by diplomacy and detente, you fool."
Yeah, Bush's mistake has been to be too hostile with Putin:
"But it is a balance of interests. It is based on a belief by Mr Bush that Mr Putin is genuinely trying to bring Russia into line with the Western world.
Mr Putin has not made big issues out of the policies which Mr Bush has favoured - especially the missile defence system.
And they have just reached agreement on a new Nato-Russia consultation mechanism and on reducing deployed missile warheads from some 6000 to 2,200 each."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/2000197.stm
Must be W's fault and not the power-hungry, former KGB communist's. Typical leftist idiocy.
32. Posted by brainy435 | May 31, 2007 3:29 PM |
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Posted on May 31, 2007 15:29
33. Posted by bryanD | May 31, 2007 3:38 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
cirby, You read the links, so I we'll agree to disagree. However, AlQueda in Chechnya and OBL's fatwa against heretics including the "rebel" sect of Shiia, of which, Iran is the center, is a factor in their willingness to help. Mutual interest is a guarantor of good faith. And the Northern Alliance was armed by Iran before the US was even on the ground in Afgnanistan.
33. Posted by bryanD | May 31, 2007 3:38 PM |
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Posted on May 31, 2007 15:38
34. Posted by P. Bunyan | May 31, 2007 3:38 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
"Didn't we win the Cold War? Just askin'."
Depends on who you mean be "we" John. The side that Lee Ward, Fidel Castro, Kim Jung Il, Hugo Chavez, Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, Barak Obama, John Edwards, George Soros, Markos Moulitsas and the rest of the far left are on definitely lost that war.
And Lee seems pretty p'd off about it.
34. Posted by P. Bunyan | May 31, 2007 3:38 PM |
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Posted on May 31, 2007 15:38
35. Posted by Who's John Galt? | May 31, 2007 3:46 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Read Woodward's Plan of Attack. Lays it all out. Here's some background: Cut & paste links here...
Bwahahahahaha! That is the absolute best that you can do? Seriously,let's try again with credible sources. What do you say, Kiddo?
ps: consider changing name from "Who's John Galt" to "Where's My Ass"
Hey, that should be fun. I'll call you fartface and you can say "are not". Then I'll say "are too". Then you say "are not". Then...
35. Posted by Who's John Galt? | May 31, 2007 3:46 PM |
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Posted on May 31, 2007 15:46
36. Posted by Blue Neponset | May 31, 2007 3:57 PM | Score: