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Fred Thompson Catches up with Rudy Giuliani

This is according to two polls: LA Times/Bloomberg and Rasmussen, who writes this:

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has to share his spot atop the field of Republican Presidential hopefuls this week. The newest face in the race, former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson, is now tied with Giuliani. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds each man earning support from 24% of likely Republican Primary voters. A week ago, Giuliani had a six percentage point lead over Thompson, 23% to 17%.


It is not unusual for a candidate to gain ground in the polls when they first announce their intentions. However, Thompson's rise has been meteoric. It remains to be seen whether the reality of his candidacy can measure up to its allure as an alternative for those dissatisfied with the other candidates in the field. At the moment, 59% of Republicans have a favorable opinion of their newest candidate. Just 14% hold an unfavorable opinion of Thompson while 27% are not sure.

Forty-two percent (42%) of Republicans view Thompson as politically conservative. Twenty-four percent (24%) see him as politically moderate, 3% say liberal and 30% are not sure. Twenty-one percent (21%) of Republicans view Giuliani as politically conservative (63% see the former Mayor of New York as politically moderate while 12% say liberal).

Just as startling as Thompson's rise in this week's poll is the continuing loss of support for Arizona Senator John McCain. The man once considered the dominant front runner in the race is now supported by just 11% of likely Republican Primary voters nationwide. That's down from 17% in May and 14% a week ago. His support is just half of what it was in January.

Fred makes this race very exciting, but he's had a big advantage: he hasn't had to answer any tough questions. The real test is how he presents himself in the debate as well on the campaign trail. Rudy, Mitt, and McCain perform well in debates; if Thompson doesn't do well or just has a mediocre showing in his first debate, it will be a big let down.


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Comments (39)

I think the *potential* ent... (Below threshold)

I think the *potential* entry of Fred Thompson into the race is 'A Good Thing': for both the GOP and the political process at-large.

Fred forces the GOP to keep its' conservative values on the front burner, rather than assume that conservative values are somehow more associated with President Bush's popularity than they are with the governing principles of the GOP.

For the process, it means that the media will have someone other than Barack Obama to pay attention to. The media has been treating Obama like 'the only thing out there', and they need to focus on the other side of the aisle, too.

Here's my response to the F... (Below threshold)
Paul Hamilton:

Here's my response to the Fred Follies, which is George Will's column from yesterday and my response from Wizbang Blue:
http://wizbangblue.com/2007/06/11/george-will-on-fred-thompson-tulips-and-the-republican-rorschach.php

Fred has had the huge advantage of totally defining his public persona thusfar, but sooner or later he'll need to either enter the race, with all the attendant tricky questions and unedited public pronouncements, or he'll have to just give it up. I suspect that one way or the other, he's already as high in the polling as he's every going to be.

"...if Thompson doesn't ... (Below threshold)
Lee Ward:

"...if Thompson doesn't do well or just has a mediocre showing in his first debate, it will be a big let down.

And if that happens, I predict that Romney will prevail, and that we'll end up with a Romney/Giuliani ticket, or a Romney/Thompson ticket. Just my $0.02.

FDT will wear well over tim... (Below threshold)
GeminiChuck:

FDT will wear well over time - including the so-called debates. Grass root conservatives do not want a "partial" conservative candidate - they want the real deal. They have learned the hard way what a "compassionist" conservative is, and they dont want another one. FDT speaks well - you can actually understand what he says - that alone will carry him a long way. He speaks from "down home" rather than from Wash DC. He has good phrases similar to Ross Perot without the craziness. His current popularity is NOT a blip like the political analysts think - but then, the analysts never really understood grass root conservatism. (Hint: we are not just the bible thumpers). gc

"Fred makes this race very ... (Below threshold)

"Fred makes this race very exciting, but he's had a big advantage: he hasn't had to answer any tough questions."

Not sure I can buy that one. He's answering questions from "Will your cancer recur?" to "How would you fix immigration?" every time I hear him speak.

Paul Hamilton: "Here's my r... (Below threshold)
Drago:

Paul Hamilton: "Here's my response to the Fred Follies, which is George Will's column from yesterday and my response from Wizbang Blue:...."

Well, I think Ace of Spades said it best: "I'm not sure how Will can claim a Watergate prosecutor, a crusading anti-corruption DA who brought down the Tennessee governor, and an eight-year Senator is just an "actor" who brings nothing to the table but a sonorous, reassuring voice."

The idea that George Will "understands" the Republican base is a fallacy (not that I don't enjoy much of what he writes.)

I agree with Bill T - Thomp... (Below threshold)
GeminiChuck:

I agree with Bill T - Thompson will knock the immigration question out of the park during a debate and be on his way. gc

Drago: The "base" cannot w... (Below threshold)
Paul Hamilton:

Drago: The "base" cannot win an election for either the Pubs or the Dems. Fred might have some nostalgic appeal to certain elements of the party, but thusfar at least, I've seen nothing from him that would translate to the sort of crossover appeal any candidate would need to get elected.

BTW, it's interesting that you would say a lifelong conservative like Will doesn't understand the Republican base. Are you saying that there is a new political philosophy for the party?

Paul Hamilton: "Drago: The ... (Below threshold)
Drago:

Paul Hamilton: "Drago: The "base" cannot win an election for either the Pubs or the Dems."

It did in 2004. In any event, one must win the nomination before a general election. Try again.

Paul Hamilton: " Fred might have some nostalgic appeal to certain elements of the party,"

This makes no sense.

Paul Hamilton: ".. but thusfar at least, I've seen nothing from him that would translate to the sort of crossover appeal any candidate would need to get elected.""

I'm quite certain that you have been spoon-fed the liberal line on what the "cross-over" and "middle-of-the-roaders" want to hear and see, which in fact will lead you to many false conclusions.

You have obviously missed the almost daily position & commentary articles that Thompson has been pumping out for months now.

Further, you have a perfect example of this with the immigration debate. The "experts" claim the middle of the road position (the how-to-get-the-"crossover" voters position) is to go forward with the immigration bill.

Yet the actual reps know the truth, and that is that the polls (even with loaded questions) were still getting 75%+ against amnesty and open borders.

But don't worry, I'm sure you'll be able to pick up another New York Times to re-validate your viewpoint.

That would be the New York Times with record declines in readership.

Drago:Kerry was a ... (Below threshold)
Paul Hamilton:

Drago:

Kerry was a terrible candidate that most Democrats, let alone most Americans, couldn't relate to at all. He won the Democratic base -- who would vote for ANYBODY but Bush -- but failed to convince the swing voters and that's why he lost. Since that time, there has been an electoral shift toward the Democrats so it's more important for the Republicans than ever to have a candidate with bipartisan appeal. And, like I said above, I don't see that from Fred yet.

And believe me, the middle-of-the-road position on immigration is NOT Bush's bill, and that's why it has failed so miserably. Fred is not alone in his opposition to it, and the people for whom immigration is the primary issue will support Tancredo.

The "base" cannot win an... (Below threshold)
Matt:

The "base" cannot win an election for either the Pubs or the Dems.

That is quite possibly true. However, a candidate can't win without their base either. There aren't enough "swing" voters to carry a candidate by themselves either.

If one of the candidates created the "Swing" party, maybe they would have an instant base and would only need to capture half the democrat and half the republican base...

Watch this: "Fred to appea... (Below threshold)
GeminiChuck:

Watch this: "Fred to appear on Jay Leno Tonight Show Tonight (6/12)." I'll go out on a limb and predict that Jay's lib audience will be cheering Fred on. gc

Thompson is a puppet of Kar... (Below threshold)
Jim Robinson:

Thompson is a puppet of Karl Rove who is pushing an amnesty bill on a public that clearly doesnt want it. Why doesnt someone ask Thompson about his ties to Rove ans whether or not he supports theamnesty bill. So far Fred refuses to answer any questions and later this month he will be traveling to Isreal and London to campaign for the United States Presidency. Something very shady is going on and the people have a right to know who exactly Fred Thompson is.

During his eight years in t... (Below threshold)
Thompson Truth File:

During his eight years in the Senate, Thompson won his free trade credentials with his votes to extend the president's fast-track trade promotion authority and to approve permanent trading relations with China. One right-wing critic in a widely circulated internet column called Thompson a "neocon globalist" for his immigration, free trade, and foreign policy positions.

Social conservatives are also likely to question Thompson's "liberal" voting record on immigration. Although Thompson has recently written and spoken out about the need for strong border control, while in the Senate he voted to increase visas for skilled foreign workers and to increase permits for unskilled foreign farm workers.

Overall, Americans for Better Immigration, an anti-immigration lobbying group, gives Thompson a career grade of C for his mixed voting record. Thompson will likely come under withering criticism from anti-immigrant candidate Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO), who mixes his social conservatism with a heavy dose of nationalism and anti-corporate populism.

As First Lady, Mrs. Fred Th... (Below threshold)
Adrian Browne:

As First Lady, Mrs. Fred Thompson has announced that her "cause" will be to promote:

The No Lonely-Old-Man's-Wallet Left Behind Program

Envious Adrian Browne: "The... (Below threshold)
Drago:

Envious Adrian Browne: "The No Lonely-Old-Man's-Wallet Left Behind Program."

From the looks of things, Fred looks anything but "lonely".

Thanks Adrian, for your "concern" about Fred's personal life.

We all appreciate the "insight" your comments provide.

You sound very bitter and lonely yourself. Perhaps you need to work on both your looks and wallet thickness, then perhaps you could land a woman of quality as well.

Wow! Its getting harsh out ... (Below threshold)
GeminiChuck:

Wow! Its getting harsh out there. Guess the libs are really running scared cause they've got their guns blazing against Thompson - even his wife - jeez! This from people who love John The-Biggest-Gigolo-Ever Kerry; and John I-Dont-Care-That-My-Wife-Is-Dying-I-Have-Fans Edwards; and Hilary "Infidelity-Is-Ok-By-Me-As-Long-As-He-Dont-Divorce-My-Ass-Before-I-Can-Be-Prez Clinton. gc

Jim Thompson: "Thompson is ... (Below threshold)
Drago:

Jim Thompson: "Thompson is a puppet of Karl Rove who is pushing an amnesty bill on a public that clearly doesnt want it."

Wow, already here comes the "Thompson is a dummy and a puppet of Karl Rove" stuff from the left. He's not even elected yet and it begins. The left has no new tactics. According to the left, Reagan was an idiot, BushI was an idiot, BushII is an idiot, the current Republicans running are idiots, etc. Why, if I didn't know better, I'd have to come to the conclusion that the left is afraid to engage on specific policies which is why they're reduced to ad hominem attacks.

Jim Thompson: "So far Fred refuses to answer any questions and later this month he will be traveling to Isreal and London to campaign for the United States Presidency."

Hey Jim, it's probably even worse than that (from your perspective). Rumor has it that Thompson even likes the Israeli Joooooooos. I know how much that pisses off you guys on the left.

Jim Thompson: "Something very shady is going on and the people have a right to know who exactly Fred Thompson is."

EXACTLY!!!!! I mean, whoever heard of a potential candidate for president traveling to multiple venues, including overseas locations, in order to shore up his "cred" on Foreign policy in times of great conflict. I mean, what's next, policy papers and editorials being written that address the great issues of our time??!!

My God! What's next, forming exploratory committee's and conducting fundraising, establishing grass-roots connections and reaching out to the base voters of your party???

Well, thanks Jim!!! Clearly, the Senate Dems clearly have enough info to start an investigation and to call for a Special Prosecutor.

Yep, and Elvis lives, WTC 7 was blown by the Bushies, Al Qaeda doesn't exist, the moon landing was faked, Roosevelt set the Japanese up by allowing them to attack Pearl Harbor (AFTER we had already broken their codes), Karl Rove was the evil force behind the JFK assasination, and Sweet and Sour sauce is really just sweet, NOT so much sour.

Good Work Jim!! Keep "questioning authority"!!

I question the timing!! Why would Thompson be doing all of this "election-type" stuff in the leadup to an election?? It's all WAAAAYYYY tooo suspicious.

sorry for the double post. ... (Below threshold)
Drago:

sorry for the double post. My system locked up temporarily.

GC,Of all the things... (Below threshold)
SCSIwuzzy:

GC,
Of all the things to criticize Edwards for, that is by fare the lamest and the lowest. For all of his two America's rhetoric and kvetching about high healthcare (after making so much money suing doctors), you don't need to sink low to get shots in on him.
Hillary and Kerry on the other hand... too true.

"I want to thank you for th... (Below threshold)
Adrian Browne:

"I want to thank you for this great honor. We're fortunate to have strippers like we do in America -- women who are drawn to the strip club with a desire to serve something larger than themselves. So on behalf of a grateful nation, I thank you for your hard work and your dedication. And I thank you for all you do every day to help build a better America. I want to let voters know that as First Lady, I will do everything in my power to create an environment supportive of strippers and promote stripper-pole safety."

~Jeri Thompson upon receiving honorary certificate from The Itchy Kitty Club of Terre Haute (offramp location) April 2, 2007.

Run, Fred, Run! At this po... (Below threshold)

Run, Fred, Run! At this point, I want anyone who can beat Hillary and Obama into submission, and I don't see it in the current GOP crop.

I completely agree with SCS... (Below threshold)
Drago:

I completely agree with SCSIwuzzy, GC.

It's not difficult for me to believe that John Edwards wife wants him to push forward with his campaign. That is simply loyalty and belief (on her part) that the country would be better off with her husband.

There really should be no second-guessing the Edwards decision on this matter. It's unseemly.

Thanks Adrian, for the glim... (Below threshold)
Drago:

Thanks Adrian, for the glimpse into the liberal mindset:

Pretend liberal world: Adrian Browne: "Jeri Thompson upon receiving honorary certificate from The Itchy Kitty Club of Terre Haute (offramp location) April 2, 2007."

Reality (from Wikipedia): "Thompson married Jeri Kehn on June 29, 2002 at First Congregational United Church of Christ, Naperville, Illinois, having first met her on July 4, 1996.[17] Kehn (born January, 1967) is an attorney and a political media consultant at the Verner, Liipfert, Bernhard, and McPherson law firm in Washington, D.C. She had formerly worked for the Senate Republican Conference and the Republican National Committee.

In March 2003, Thompson was featured in a commercial by the pro-war group Citizens United that advocated the invasion of Iraq, stating: "When people ask what has Saddam done to us, I ask, what had the 9/11 hijackers done to us -- before 9/11."[18]

In October 2003, Fred and Jeri Thompson had their first child, Hayden Victoria Thompson. A second child was born to them in November, 2006.[13] Thompson also has two grown children and five grandchildren from his previous marriage, which ended in divorce after 25 years. Thompson said his former wife, Sarah, indicated she would campaign for Thompson if he did run for president.[19]"

Again, thanks Adrian, for letting us know that you think attractive, church-going Attorney's who have worked in Washington are the equivalent of "strippers".

Remember folks, this is the "we have to respect women" lefties.

Hmmmm, but if what Adrian said is correct, perhaps that's why Hillary, seeing as how she is a lawyer and politically active, was such a hussy that she enabled Bill to have all those affairs and even rape Juanita Broadrick.

Yep, it makes perfect sense now.

Thanks Adrian!!!

Drago, could not have said ... (Below threshold)
DaveD:

Drago, could not have said it better myself. Thank you.

As a lefty...(anyone who be... (Below threshold)
nogo postal:

As a lefty...(anyone who believes the Bush Iraq actions are failures identifies me as such)
Let me say..I want Fred Thompson to be the Republican Candidate...
Just as the hopeless left wants Gore to jump in because of the feeble candidates...the hope of the right for Fred demonstrates the same desperation.
Like Gore..Fred is waiting...
Yep ...America wants a leader who hesitates on his desire to lead...
Remember ....referring to Mrs. Thompson as a "pole dancer" came from the right... Scarborough...

The candidates of both Party's have shown the courage to expose themselves in debate..
I respect that..
Fred Thompson is a political coward...
...if Gore runs (which i doubt) is the same..
So yep....let's go....
All candidates have been under biased scrutiny...but they have the courage in their convictions to do so...
If you all want to support a candidate that lacks that...fine...

nogo,In the case of ... (Below threshold)
SCSIwuzzy:

nogo,
In the case of Thompson, could it not be instead that we see a man that is not consumed with the desire to win the office for the sake of the office itself?
Personally, I dislike leadership as an end, rather than the mean to achieve an end.

nogo postal, THANK YOU!! Y... (Below threshold)
Justrand:

nogo postal, THANK YOU!! Your post caused me to donate additional money to Thompson!

President Fred Thompson. hey...it has a nice ring!!

Look - I feel bad for Edwar... (Below threshold)
GeminiChuck:

Look - I feel bad for Edward's wife and what she is going thru - I feel really bad for their kids. But Edwards is a total AHole for allowing his career desires to override what is best for his family (no matter what his wife says). Its hardly over the top - that guy should keep the home warm and loving - at least for the kids - and he is total pond-scum for not putting his family first in this situation. If she only lives a limited number of years those kids are going to remember nannies, not mom & dad. Shameful. gc

Another carefully-scripted ... (Below threshold)
Paul Hamilton:

Another carefully-scripted tease on the Tonight Show. How much longer will the right wingers allow themselves to be toyed with in this manner?

And that's a serious question, BTW -- when do you think that this whole game will start to turn more people off than on?

Paul, it's foreplay.... (Below threshold)
kim:

Paul, it's foreplay.
========

Right, first comes the fore... (Below threshold)
groucho:

Right, first comes the foreplay and then the country gets screwed. It's hard to see any leaders in this bunch, only politicians.

Count me among those who wonder what unseen hands may be guiding Thompson's little dance toward the spotlight. Karl Rove is a parasite and, as such, needs a warm body he can fasten himself to in order to maintain his power. Who better than another drawling, folksy, outside-the-beltway man of the people? Hey it worked like a charm the last time, let's go with double or nothing.

Personally, I think he is a... (Below threshold)
kim:

Personally, I think he is a stalking horse, and ultimate running mate, for Romney. Republican ardor is better for the body politic than Democratic deceit and disempowerment. We can go on with the metaphor if you like.
====================

Mike and Ike.=======... (Below threshold)
kim:

Mike and Ike.
========

I loved the way Fred bitch-... (Below threshold)
nikkolai:

I loved the way Fred bitch-slapped that fat ass Michael Moore. We need someone with a little mean streak on the conservative side. Many of us are just tired of watching the current crop of Rep. leaders bend over and take it.

Fred has tapped into the fr... (Below threshold)
kim:

Fred has tapped into the frustration felt by many Bush voters. In general, Fred's constituency voted for Bush, even almost likes what Bush has done, but is very disappointed that the public dialogue has fundamentally been defaulted to the Dems and the MSM, which we know is a hothouse and an echo chamber.

So Fred huffs and puffs.
===========

And Romney assembles the ve... (Below threshold)
kim:

And Romney assembles the vehicle that will be what "is good for the USA".
=================================

Hello! Good Site! Thanks yo... (Below threshold)

Hello! Good Site! Thanks you! pdmvszrwos

Romney/Giuliani? Whatta jok... (Below threshold)
levotb:

Romney/Giuliani? Whatta joke! The GOP is in trouble, but they can beat Hillary with "the right candidate". By that, I'm not referring to Fred Thompson. He's a bore, a slow speaker who looks terrible after cancer therapy. Hos Senate record is a "0". He may win some of McCain's supporters, but so will Romney. Romney is the most interesting candidate because Americans aren't familiar with him. Giuliani is in free fall. He would nevr beat Hillary. The reason is, conservatives would walk--bote The CP or stay home.

The best choice Republicans have would be a Paul-Hunter ticket. Paul is anti-war enough to draw Independent voters and strong enough on the Border issue to get conservatives. Hunter would be the perfect VP. The only problem they would have is money. They could never match Hillary's money. That is why Romney and Bloomberg are seen as possibles, now--their money. How sad it is.




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