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Iraqi Civilian Deaths Since the Start of the Surge

This is a bit of an "inside Wizbang" post. From the Petraeus testimony comes the following good news about the surge working.

iraqcivilians.png
Click for full size

Considering the surge started to get going in December, it shows good news indeed. The insider's part, I'll leave in the extended section. (and I'll add a language warning up here too)

I warned him, I did. Last month, local troll Paul Hooson went around blabbering that the surge was failing because the civilian death count was higher for a single month. After explaining to him that a slight tick up for a single month meant nothing, he still would not drop it... After many, many go-rounds, finally, in exasperation, I gave him this warning:

Hooson, since you are too stupid to figure this out, I'll explain it to you.

You're pulling a Leeward and setting your self up for a colossal ass kicking. When next month civilian deaths fall, I'll link this and make you look like the asshole you are.

Remember Leeward and the Dixie Chicks? I have a long memory and I know how to use a search tool. You'll just make an ass out of yourself later.

But go ahead and make the case that civilian deaths are the measure by which we should judge the surge. Go ahead, set yourself for being made an ass later. I won't stop you.

And goodness knows you're too stupid to stop yourself.

as I predicted, he wasn't smart enough to stop himself....

Your premise that the "surge is working" is clearly not true for Iraqi civilians, otherwise the violence against them would be decreasing, right? Only some American deaths have declined since March, right?

Hooson, I warned ya buddy, I did, I really tried to save ya, but you did it to yourself. But a promise is a promise, I gotta do it... You're an asshole.

Look at that one single month (July) you hung your hat on. I gave you the link showing you that June showed the lowest civilian causalities in a year but you ignored that. The almighty Democrat talking point said civilian deaths where up that month and you refused to consider the Dem talking points where (gasp) bullshit.

So I guess you're a big supporter of the surge now right?

(BTW- You're unbanned for this one thread as calling you an asshole while you're banned would be childish. -- Besides, how can you apologize if you're banned?)


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Comments (39)

Don't hold your breath, Hoo... (Below threshold)
SPQR:

Don't hold your breath, Hooson still hasn't apologized for the false slam on Giuliani I called him on weeks ago.

Heh. You know, the... (Below threshold)
Les Nessman:

Heh.

You know, the sad thing would be, if he actually now agrees that the surge is working. It would mean that with one small upturn or downturn, he would change his view on important long-term international policy.

He won't agree, of course, because it was just a lefty talking point, designed to beat you over the head with. Nice way to run down America and its armed forces, Hooson, just to make political points.

I'm curious, where'd that c... (Below threshold)
mantis:

I'm curious, where'd that chart come from? A search for the exact term "Coalition and Host National Reporting" comes up blank, and those numbers are significantly different than those from the AP and IBC. Note that the AP numbers show many more civilian deaths for June/July 2007 than does IBC or the chart you have (July '07 not on the IBC chart, but their numbers are lower than AP).

In any case, two things are worth noting, not having to do with the month-to-month argument between the Pauls. First, civilian deaths went way up in 2006, and have been going down in 2007, but remain much higher than 2004 and 2005. Second, the reduction in 2007 over 2006 does come at a cost elsewhere; namely, American deaths.

So yes, progress, but the big picture is important, and what that tells us is there is a long way to go, and a cost to getting there (sorry if this is obvious, but it's still worth noting).

>I'm curious, where'd that ... (Below threshold)
Paul:

>I'm curious, where'd that chart come from? A search for the exact term "Coalition and Host National Reporting" comes up blank

That's not a single term... they used 2 data sources. The Coalition's numbers and the "Host Nation" numbers.

"Host Nation" in COINspeak is the nation in which you're doing COIN. In other words, the Iraqi government.

BTW- This came up during the testimony and the Dems didn't challenge the numbers. Some lefty bloggers are whining that they aren't taking Greenpeaces' and Amnesty International numbers... go figure.

One goofball lefty site (or at least it was a goofball post) put up numbers he claimed "debunked" the Generals but he actually confirmed them. Go figure II.

Why hasn't this asshole (mu... (Below threshold)
marc:

Why hasn't this asshole (mullah cimoc) been banned?

Please forgive Hooson he had that nasty tumble on that cheap assed chinese scooter. It takes while to unscramble the brain in such cases.

BTW I hate to burst your bu... (Below threshold)
Paul:

BTW I hate to burst your bubble but IBC is completely worthless. All they do is read the media and count every body...

You and I both know there are dozens of cases where 10 and 20 bodies have been reported in the media that never existed. There was a report just about a month ago of 20 bodies that after a bunch of bloggers dug into it turned out to be a fabrication. (Rusty got the kill on that one, no pun intended.)

Part of the problem is that the (insert your word here, terrorist, insurgents, militias etc)will shoot at 3 people then tell them media they killed 50.

If we had "KatrinaBodyCount.org" the causality count would be over 10,000.

>Second, the reduction in 2... (Below threshold)
Paul:

>Second, the reduction in 2007 over 2006 does come at a cost elsewhere; namely, American deaths.

Well yes, but no.

Those are raw numbers but we have 1.4X (ish)the number of people in country now. The death rate is lower. But more people (anywhere) means more deaths. We had about 7 today dies in a traffic accident in Iraq.

Please forgive my pet donke... (Below threshold)
kim:

Please forgive my pet donkey.

I'd been trying to figure out if the mullah is legit or a parody. I especially like his fixation on LBT. That's low back tattoos in case you hadn't figured it out. I tried to figure out if cimoc was Persian or Indonesian or what. Finally, the answer came to me in a comic book.
============================

>Why hasn't this asshole (m... (Below threshold)
Paul:

>Why hasn't this asshole (mullah cimoc) been banned?

I did not realize he was a repeat offender, I didn't even recognize the name.

I did some research and he's banned now. I didn't even delete him outright the first time because I figured maybe English was a 3rd (or 4th or 5th) language or something.

Looking back, he made a few posts in English them went spazmatic.

Game over.

Sorry, I never noticed him before.

That's not a single term... (Below threshold)
mantis:

That's not a single term... they used 2 data sources. The Coalition's numbers and the "Host Nation" numbers.

"Host Nation" in COINspeak is the nation in which you're doing COIN. In other words, the Iraqi government.

Well, I understood the terms, but was trying to find the chart. Tried searching using the source attributed, thinking I might find it, but no luck (often the phrase from a chart will be repeated in a post, with a link). I assumed you got it very recently, possibly from a pdf, and was curious where from, so I could look at the numbers used. Not interested in "debunking" anything myself; just curious about the different methods of getting at these numbers. Haven't seen anything about Amnesty numbers or Greenpeace(??).

So anyway, got a url? I'm not interested in challenging them. Casualty rates in such a situation are very hard to arrive at.

yes pdf page 4 I think ... (Below threshold)
Paul:

yes pdf page 4 I think

link

(I love being a mod, I can update my comments)

BTW mantis, look at page 8 and note where in Anbar the attacks where historically. Now go to google earth and find an overlay of the train stations in Anbar. -- Train stations cause terrorist attacks.

(actually you can see the RR track in the slide. It's the thing that *looks* like a highway up at the top that curves down and loops as it goes east to west.)

Yeah, I spend waaay too much time in GE.

The death rate is lower.... (Below threshold)
mantis:

The death rate is lower. But more people (anywhere) means more deaths.

The rate is higher, not lower. In 2007 there's been about a 63% casualty increase, but a far lower increase in total force numbers (something like +15-18%).

Again, this is not very surprising, because they've been (more) on the offensive. More fighting plus more people is the reason, not just more people.

as per Kilcullen, I (semi)q... (Below threshold)
Paul:

as per Kilcullen, I (semi)quoted his numbers above. I did not dig them up. Hereyago:

casualties are up in absolute terms, but down as a proportion of troops deployed (in the fourth quarter of 2006 we had about 100,000 troops in country and casualties averaged 90 deaths a month; now we have almost 160,000 troops in country but deaths are under 120 per month, much less than a proportionate increase, which would have been around 150 a month)

I didn't double check his numbers but I'd be surprised if they where not within a margin of error.

BTW see my updated comment above

I'd double check mine first... (Below threshold)
mantis:

I'd double check mine first. I was looking at the numbers for Jan - August, and in those months the lowest number of troops in Iraq was about 125K, with the highest at 140K or so (according to the sources I'm looking at). I had no idea we got as low as 100k in 2006. I should probably look at the numbers again for the whole year. Maybe tomorrow.

<a href="http://www.talking... (Below threshold)
jp2:

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/docs/idc-combined/

This might be useful if we are talking stats.

General Petraeus is a magni... (Below threshold)

General Petraeus is a magnificent man.
Hooson is an a-hole.

Two undeniable facts of the world we live in. Given that, I'd just as soon focus on the picture of dignity, honor, reason, competence, valor and manhood that the fine General exemplifies. Watching him there in his uniform, decorated with representations of accomplishments that most of us could only hope to achieve in our lifetimes, was very reassuring in such a troubled time. He didn't whine. He didn't snap at the obvious intellectual inferiors as they paraded their ignorance in front of the world as if they had a clue as to what they were talking about, and in doing so, spat on his service and his lifes work. The man is an inspiration. One should hope to be as composed and focused as him while under fire from such a lot of professional fools, conwomen and traitors.

I could never be as Jesus like as this guy, as he is destroyed, publicly, without so much as a SINGLE word from our fearful cowards, er, "leaders" in the "right wing". I haven't even heard the menstration call these vultures for what they are. Nope, can't do that. Freedom of speech, especially of the rehtorical type, only applies to the America haters. Which means, they can hate America with all of their being, but if you acknowledge their hate and cowardice, you are obviously full of hate, and must be stifled. So they stifle themselves, so as not to be called hateful. Brilliant. Good luck getting that hispanic vote there, GOP. Caving to PSism is working out swimmingly in that arena, ey ? But I digress.

The General is too good a man for US. He belongs in the country we MIGHT be, not the one we have become. We don't deserve him. I hope he believes in his Savior, but if he doesn't, he should take the place of some scumbag who is tearing him down, who happens to believe. There's no way someone that decent and honorable should be left behind when we finally blow the whole thing up. Please say a prayer for him, and if you know any monks, get 'em off that "harmonic convergence" crappola and get them focusing on our country regaining her common sense. Folks, we are truly F'ed if we really think the comings and goings of hate filled dingbats like Rosie O'Dumbell, moveon.org, most of congress, Hollow-wood, 911 "truthers", bill maer, pbs, my daughters' hateful, atheistic, ranting science "teacher" or Brittaney Spears or any of the other humdrum pieces of mediocrity in this country, are more significant than this great man and the heroes he leads. I pray that the silent majority is real and just chomping at the bit to be heard. God help us, Amen.

In a 2004 Christian Science... (Below threshold)

In a 2004 Christian Science Monitor article Petreaus said:

"We're only six months away from June and handing control of the country back over to Iraqis," he says."
http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0115/p01s04-woiq.htm


Control of the country of I... (Below threshold)
WildWillie:

Control of the country of Iraq was handed over to them. Idiot. ww

>This might be useful if we... (Below threshold)
Paul:

>This might be useful if we are talking stats.

Interesting.. it shows that either AP or IBC is completely out of touch. In July of 06 for example, AP was around 800 and IBC was at 2,800. -- Something is seriously wrong.

What makes this more interesting is that IBC gets it numbers by reading the media ... You would think AP would use similar methods; being the media and all.

Lastly looking at the AP numbers from Jan - Sept 06, they really look like someone was using the MSU method.

They just Made Shit Up.

And they've certainly taken... (Below threshold)
groucho:

And they've certainly taken the ball and run with it, haven't they? The main failure of the surge is that it has provided no demonstrable progress by the Iraqi government in getting its act together. It remains empty and impotent, any power it might have coming from our tenuous military support, which could crumble at any time. The Iraqis remain a collection of tribes bent on continuing their centuries old strife and no amount of our bullets, bombs and bodies will ever change that. Six months from now we'll be told that things will be better in another six months and the faithful 20 percenters will say see, it IS working.

>The main failure of the su... (Below threshold)
Paul:

>The main failure of the surge is that it has provided no demonstrable progress by the Iraqi government in getting its act together.

And the main failure of my car is that I can not eat it. -- Can you find something to say that's even more disjoined and less meaningful?

The surge has nothing to do with political reconciliation. YES- one of the reasons to do it is that if the security situation is under control the politics gets a whole lot easier... but the security situation is just now coming under control. -- The Surge (proper) has nothing to do with politics and it's a completely stupid thing to say.

It's a stupid empty hollow talking point... just like the one Paul Hooson was making last month that proved him an asshole

But it is this week's almighty Dem talking point so you'll blather on about it.

Feaver in the Boston Globe,... (Below threshold)
kim:

Feaver in the Boston Globe, rick and groucho.
==============================

You could almost hear the d... (Below threshold)
Les Nessman:

You could almost hear the disappointment from mantis that he could not burst Paul's bubble.
Well, keep digging. I'm sure you can find something negative to say about any good news from Iraq.

It isn't true that the poli... (Below threshold)
kim:

It isn't true that the politics isn't improving. The Sunni are catching a few breaks now that Allawi has accented the pan-Arabism of both the Sunni tribes and the Shia. There is progress, and I am now officially thinking they may not end up as three states.
==========================================

You could almost hear th... (Below threshold)
mantis:

You could almost hear the disappointment from mantis that he could not burst Paul's bubble.

The bubble being that civilian deaths have gone down as a result of the surge? I'm not disputing that, but looking at the bigger picture. Violence went way up in 2006, and has been going down in 2007. If this continues, and it gets down to 2004-5 levels, then we may just have a chance over there.

But your assumption is misplaced; I do not hope for bad news in Iraq. I would be very pleased if things went well there, and I couldn't care less if that helps the President or the Republicans politically, because a) we could start getting the hell out of there, and b) it would do a lot to repair the damage that the war has done both to our reputation internationally (and thus our ability to fight terrorism) and our military. That I am less than optimistic has everything to do with realistic thinking, and nothing to do with politics.

Well, keep digging. I'm sure you can find something negative to say about any good news from Iraq.

One doesn't need to dig; it is apparent. That you see things through rose-colored glasses has no impact of the reality of the situation.

>looking at the bigger pict... (Below threshold)
Paul:

>looking at the bigger picture. Violence went way up in 2006, and has been going down in 2007. If this continues, and it gets down to 2004-5 levels, then we may just have a chance over there.

EXACTLY... I touched on this in an earlier post. Right now we're trying to undo the problems that built all thru 2006.

I must confess, I didn't even read about Iraq in 2006, I had Katrina on the brain, Iraq felt so meaningless... So I can't tell you what got hosed in Iraq in 2006 but the numbers clearly show it did.

If the surge works as planned there will be a point in time where Iraq 2007 (or 08) will look a whole lot like 2004 or 5... Other than we "get" it now and can build on the momentum from there.

I'm planning a post on something similar one day.

All this talk about Iraqi c... (Below threshold)
FreedomFries:

All this talk about Iraqi casualties declining as a result of the surge is curious.

When one stops counting as insurgent casualties thosre who are killed face on and only only those killed w/ shots to the back of the head, body counts go down.

When the definition of what defines sectarian bombings is redefined, body counts go down.

When de facto ethnic cleansing has led to massive population relocation of Sunnis to the West, or self-exile by the millions, and when there is reconcentration of Shia populations, the occasion for sectarian bombings will decline and thus so will body counts decline.

All these factors make for scant evidence that the Iraqi death count has declined due primarily to the success of the Surge.

And, when one considers the contrivances lately being used to establish the recent Iraqi body counts, it ought to give any rational individual pause as to why the graphs posted above aren't just mere propaganda in an attempt to con the American public, just as has been the case throughout the course of this war, including the lead-up to war.

Has anyone seen CODE PIN... (Below threshold)
ODA315:

Has anyone seen CODE PINKs numbers?

Just curious.

All these factors make f... (Below threshold)
SCSI.wuzzy:

All these factors make for scant evidence...
As scant as the citations you provide to back up your assertions, FF.

One doesn't need t... (Below threshold)
One doesn't need to dig; it is apparent. That you see things through rose-colored glasses has no impact of the reality of the situation.

Geez, how do you people keep from taking a gun, from your secret stash, and blowing your brains out ? To be ever seeking of the negative, the dismal, defeatist angle of your own countrys' struggle, through blood and flesh, to free two entire nations and provide security for our own...it boggles the mind. I know most hard lefties have no scruples or patriotism, I just don't get how one, how anyone, can make it through life everyday with the fatalistic point of view of: "My country sucks. My leaders are scum. My founding fathers would stand hand in perverted hand with the a.c.l.u. -Thousands of my fellow young Americans are brainwashed morons that stupidly march into Haliburtons' 'war for oil'." etc.

My sullen rant above notwithstanding, it seems impossible to maintain such an ugly national image w/o walking into the breakers at dawn, or at least packing up and leaving. My God! Cheer up you miserable twits, you live in the greatest place on earth and get to do so at the expense of other peoples' blood. Have you NO sense of gratitude or joy ?

There's a saying in Puerto ... (Below threshold)
Desmothenes:

There's a saying in Puerto Rico that loosely translated goes something like this, "When you're looking for 5 legs on a cat, you will somehow find 5 legs on a cat." Essentially, no matter what happens, the leftists will find that 5th leg, or in this case, something wrong with the surge.

It might be totally irrational, retarded, or incomprehensible, but they will find it. It's rather pathetic really.

>All these factors make for... (Below threshold)
Paul:

>All these factors make for scant evidence that the Iraqi death count has declined due primarily to the success of the Surge.

No, I'm very sorry. Paul Hooson (the asshole) said that civilian deaths would be the metric by which we judge the surges' efficacy.

One of your own picked it and then after you got your hat handed to you, now you want to change the rules??? I don't think so.

From the Jones Commission R... (Below threshold)
civil behavior:

From the Jones Commission Report

"Violence remains a fact of life in Iraq...While violence has recently declined sharply in the Sunni-dominated Anbar province... attacks have risen in Diyala, Balad, Basra, and Amarah. Violence remains endemic in Baghdad..."(pg. 33)

"Iraqi society is being convulsed by sectarianism that if not swiftly and significantly curtailed could contribute to a rapid deterioration of Iraq


The surge is working, the surge is working, the surge is working......... Kind of like Dorothy wishing herself back to Kansas isn't it? Only that movie too was fantasy.

Foolish stupid Americanos.

Aw. So nice that Stuckey's... (Below threshold)
SCSIwuzzy:

Aw. So nice that Stuckey's lets you cruise Nancy Pelosi's website when the lunch rush is over, CB.

What, is Political Affairs blocked on their system?

It happens time & again o... (Below threshold)
FreedomFries:

It happens time & again on these Wiz comments threads.

Every time that mantis makes a cogent & reasoned reply, if not a complete deconstruction of aWizpost (#'s 10 & 12 on the current thread), his comments receive the highest negative scores, not just here, but on any thread where he comments. He is the ONE contrarion here who seriously and honestly engages in debate every time and w/ never a snarky comment; but it matters not.

This goes to show that the Wizkooks want only to read the Wizcrap that reverberates on this blogsite so that they can amplify their untutored & uninformed thoughts and ideas and push these ideas to a level of communal illusionary "truth."

It is the Wizkook kommenters salivating to the rung bell.

Not to put too fine a line ... (Below threshold)

Not to put too fine a line on it, but if you do not like it here, go somewhere else. I have never once seen an instance where you provided anything useful or cogent to any conversation or debate at hand, so it really would not be that much of a loss, for anyone involved.

Hey, I leave snarky comment... (Below threshold)
mantis:

Hey, I leave snarky comments all the time, and I can be pretty damned insulting (to some) if I want to, so please don't try to make me out to be some sweetheart who always stays civil and on topic.

As for comment ratings, I never even notice them. They could be useful for someone who doesn't want to even see any comments from the left, as they are invariably rated in the negative. However, since comments here aren't nested it could be somewhat confusing to see responses to the un-displayed comments that are beneath the threshold you set.

Back in school I did a study of such comment rating systems (on tech sites, not political) and found personalized settings to be seldom used (if noticed at all), and largely useless, especially for regular users.

Mantis, FF's intention in m... (Below threshold)
SPQR:

Mantis, FF's intention in mentioning your comments' ratings is to justify his own incivility. Frankly, I already think little of him, but his attempt to borrow your credibility to justify his lack thereof is despicable.

The Iraqis remain a collect... (Below threshold)
Rich:

The Iraqis remain a collection of tribes bent on continuing their centuries old strife and no amount of our bullets, bombs and bodies will ever change that.




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