That's quite a 'trump' to hold (the ability to quietly blind your adversary so that they don't even realize they're blind). One has to wonder what the circumstances were to motivate them to reveal the trump at this time.

It had to be something disturbing - but that leaves a choice as far as Syria goes. The "cement" delivery from half a world away had to be something else . . . what does North Korea have to export? Hmmm . . .

Also, Jane's Defense Weekly reported on the July 23 accident with nerve gas, when the Syrians were trying to load it on a Scud missile. You don't load such payloads on a missile until you are very close to firing it.

Also, Assad has received recent visits from both Nancy Pelosi and Dennis Kucinich, so it is possible he is stockpiling lethal doses of bullsh*t . . .

Take your pick . . . ;-)

Not to take anything away from this, but, the site, while 'deep inside Syria' if you cross Syria from Israel, doesn't really seem very far through hostile territory if you take a Jordan/Iraq route...something the US could pretty plausibly arrange - although they'd probably have to present some pretty damning evidence to get Jordan to go along (assuming they were told). Obviously we'd have to know about a jaunt through Iraq, but no one else would.

I would like to point out that both the F-15 and F-16 are thirty years old.

If we can smoke them with planes developed in the 70s... imagine the stuff our military has worked on since.

It could be that this is a dress rehearsal for a possible attack on Iran. Given that the Iranians have similar anti-air defenses, what better way to test the success of an attack on their airspace, by attacking the airspace of someone that's not so far away. Interesting stuff.

Another possible route was through Turkish airspace. I thought I read (can't find my source) an early report that the Turkish military had turned a blind eye to the Isreally strike, without informing the new Islamicist civillian government.

When all is said and done, this was not some 21st Century hocus pocus. It is good some people might think that it is. It will help later. Good, reliable intelligence, careful planning, judicious use of equipment such as standoff jammers, special operations personnel who are really "special" and the ability to pick and choose your time are all very important aspects to any surprise attack. The Israelis used all of these to their advantage and then some. The "and then some" is the unforeseen circumstance of scaring the bejesus out of the bad guys.

Falze:

I like and appreciate your thought, but look again at the map. Even with possible Jordanian support/permission and using a flight path that skirts into Iraqi airspace, this is still a 100+ mile deep penetration into Syrian airspace--that's just guess-timate range from Al Daim, Iraq to Dayr Az Zawr, Syria. That is a catastrophic failure in terms of defense and penetrability.

I'm incredibly curious as to what this attack was about--if there was one at all, and it wasn't "simply" the IDF air force dumping fuel and running back after testing Syrian radar. If it was "just a test" it was damn successful.

If so, the good doctor is right: Mullahs from Iran to Damascus are shitting in their turbans....

While it's possible that the technological breakthough was something old school like paying somebody to turn a radar off, I'd like to point out that F-15s are by no means stealthy aircraft! I can see why the Iranians are going nuts over this. They've gone from state-of-the-art defenses to baby-seal mode overnight. And the US and Israel have a few clubs...

BTW, if the NYT reveals how this was pulled off... hang 'em. Just hang them.

Now that's funny.
My first thought, that some others obviously had, was "That's not even an F-22, B-1 or B-2, just some old, obsolete, F-15s and F-16s".
I hope it's true.

Jim A:

what does North Korea have to export? Hmmm . . .

Starvation?

Adam:

I would like to point out that both the F-15 and F-16 are thirty years old. If we can smoke them with planes developed in the 70s... imagine the stuff our military has worked on since.

I would like to point out you're militarily clueless.

F-15's and F-16's never were and have never been used as "jammers." The are attack/fighter jets (ya know, drop bombs smart and otherwise) and had absolutely zero to do with any "blinding" of Syrian air defenses.

All I can really add is this:

awesome.

Deterrence through invisibility.

Friggin' awesome.

Fascinating! Time for a few "training runs" by dozens & dozens or aircraft towards Iran...with last second turn-arounds!

Do that a few times and see if they FINALLY get the hint! If not..."weapons are free"!

marc:

You are assuming that a couple of them can't be refit.

Actually, I will add a thought. With this information in mind, the scope of Ahmadinejad's UN speech takes an interesting turn.

Extremely interesting... but I'm not taking the whole hook just yet.

From Dayr az-Zawr to the west boarder of Iraq is about 75 miles. It uses stand off weapons that can almost make the shot from Iraq.

The F-15 can cruise at well above 20 miles per minute... So we're talking a single plane or 2 over Syria for under 8 min. That's a tip toe across the border....

A couple of notes:

Radar isn't magic, and won't automatically detect everything in the air. In rough terrain, your detection range can be very limited. Two hundred radar sets isn't that many for a country of that size. Good mission planning could avoid effective detection for a good-sized strike mission without needing stealth - especially if some commandos took a couple of sites offline.

Second, electronic warfare is an Israeli specialty. Some active ECM helps a LOT.

Third, Russian radars aren't that good in the first place.

Here's a possible scenario. I'm not saying it's accurate, just a hypothesis from stuff that I found in open source material on the web.

Turkey and Israel signed a number of military treaties in the mid 1990's, which allowed for both countries armed forces to train with each other in each others' countries.

There is a rumor, which I can't substantiate, that a ground element was inserted via helicopter before the attack to help "paint" the target.

I believe it was written in the Jerusalem Post or the Daily Telegraph that the Israelis have known for years that Syria had chemical weapons, but that there was a red line that Israel wouldn't let Syria cross.

Other than the usual suspects, condemnation has been rather mild. The only non-middle eastern state to lodge a protest was North korea. After the raid was over, a number of Syrians flew to Pyongyang to meet with the North Koreans. Also, just after this attack happened, the six party talks about opening North Korea up for a nuclear inspection were immediately postponed.

There is also a story making the rounds that Israeli satellite photos were taken that showed a nuke plant was being constructed. According to the story, Israeli intelligence was able to get ahold of whatever was being manufactured at the plant, and shared its findings with the White House, who then gave Israel the green light.

Here goes: Israel became aware that nuclear material was being manufactured or transported to Syria. They staged their forces in Turkey, and entered throught the northern part of the country, where the air defense was not as strong. The commandos illuminated the target, and the fighter/bombers came in and left before anyone knew what happened. The reason that the Turks sqauked was that the Israelis got careless, and a fuel tank got dropped.

It isn't likely that Israel took the direct route through Jordan, as that would be a violation of their airspace. It is possible that the US and Iraq would allow any damaged fighters to land at an airbase in the western part of the country, but the Iraqis wouldn't alow any overflights either.

There is a strong technical discussion posted at another web site. I believe it's called either former spook or in from the cold. I'm sorry that I don't completely remember, btu it offers a technical analysis of IFF codes and bombing routes.

As I said, just a hypothesis.

Ok, I am far from a military expert, but keeping up with all of the shiny toys our soldiers, sailors, and airmen have access to is something of a hobby for... well, any red-blooded American male, but me in particular.

First, as someone said previously, F-15s and F-16s are not, in any way, stealthy. In fact, the F-16 might be one of the least-stealthy fighters we have out there, being little more than an insanely high-output jet engine with a seat and a few wings strapped to it.

Second, it is important to note that both of those aircraft were originally designed to be air superiority fighters. "Not a pound for air to ground," was a slogan of the original F-15 design team. This has since changed with the development of the F-15E Strike Eagle, and also the F-15I Thunder. Coincidentally, in addition to the A, B, and D variants Israel owns, they also have a few of the I's running about. However, the fact remains that, at its core, the 15 is still an air superiority jet, and none of the baseline models are designed for Wild-Weasel-style missions... though nailing a ground target would be well within an I's capabilities. I am not saying it would be impossible, but I doubt it would be seamless and undetectable as it apparently was this time around (or, at least, the Syrians are not admitting otherwise).

Now, all that said for the 15, it stands even double for the 16... almost. This thing was originally designed as an interceptor, but its history has changed to. With the development of its Block 50D/52D, it gained HARM missiles and a self-defense jamming pod. The catch with the former is that it requires the destruction of the ground sensors (something the Syrians also have not admitted), and the latter appears to be predominantly for self-defense, not for blanking out sensors of other aircraft - again, the complete and utter silence seems a bit odd.

Ok, all that said, the scenario is still not impossible. The Israelis have been developing and acquiring all manner of interesting technology over the years, to keep themselves alive and scary enough to the Arabs around them to keep them out. Combine that with their apparently inherent ingenuity, and they could very well have cobbled together a surprisingly effective Wild Weasel/ground strike package... The problem is that refits are tetchy things, and, more often than not, cause more problems than you would like.

Personally, I think it actually went one of two ways, but it is just me. First, there is the possibility of "nap of the earth" flying. No, this is not just Hollywood makebelieve, yes, it is dangerous as hell, and yes, their pilots would have to be very, very good. But depending on the terrain and placement of the Syrian's detection grid, it might very well be possible, especially with things that are about as far from slow, ungainly bombers as you can get. Second, Israel's specwar teams are impressively good, at least from what little about them is known. How difficult would it be for them to infiltrate the border, and silence the ground based radar installations? Kill the crews... cut the power... blow the things up... however you want to accomplish it?

At this point, I honestly think the Syrians are too embarassed to admit exactly what happened, and we are likely to never know, both due to that, and due to the Israelis not wanting to tell (why would they?). However, any way you look at it, it is positively fantastic that someone has all of the terrorism-supporting bastards over there on their toes. Major bonus points for that, indeed.

Like I said, not to take anything away from it, but still, we're not talking about a long haul by jet. It was just a thought.

hermie:

You are assuming that a couple of them can't be refit.

I assume nothing, there are no reports such has occurred although not impossible. what I do know is Israel has always placed it's emphasis on fighter/attack aircraft and the electronic capabilities are utilized via other means.

Here is their latest A/C purchase you'll note no EW equip is included.

Assuming any EW jamming occurred it most likely came from an outside source. As for Israel's organic EW capabilities one hopes they have been improved since the Labanon war because they, and the U.S. were unpleasantly surprised how little effect they had on the hezzies comm capabilities.

Marc, the Israelis don't have to buy EW equipment as they have a very high level avionics industry - in fact, they've sold us avionics technology in the past if memory serves.

I would suspect that IDF F15's and F16's are often not flying with US issued avionics.

Maybe this is why GWB let Ahamanuthaid into the country - to have someone mention in private that the Joooos can now put a missile through his bedroom window, without any warning.

"Why, Mrs. Nuthaid, what is that whistling sound...."

Whew, I'd say the last few posters know a thing or two.
===============

SPQR:

Marc, the Israelis don't have to buy EW equipment as they have a very high level avionics industry - in fact, they've sold us avionics technology in the past if memory serves.

I never said they had to buy EW gear. They in fact have a very advanced EW "industry," but little to none of what is produced for it's A/C.

And you are correct, they recently sold some very advanced gear to India that the U.S. protested about.

Lots of good points, I'd just add one observation:

Israel always thinks a few years ahead.

This was not about 'today'.

Though they have taken credit, why are we assuming this was an Israeli job?

Here we are trying to figure out how the Israelis could have done it when the US has plenty of hardware capable and the long haul ability to make things happen from bases in places like Diego Garcia or even Whiteman, Missouri.

ah....Blac.. Who are Jooos?
I agree with DJ...
It is unfortunate that Bush/Cheney have never exhibited such foresight.

"F-16, F-17, whatever it takes." heh

I don't care if they wired a flux capacitor to a blender, I say "well done"!

Very curious if we'll ever find out all the details on this one.

I want to make it clear that the Israeli F-16 is not your father's F-16. These F-16's are two seaters. The plane's radar are American (much to some IDF general's dismay) but the infra-red sensor systems and air to air missles are RAPHAEL, Israeli. THe IDF has or is close to having 102 "Sufa" F-16s. They have a range of 800 miles.

25% of the plane is made of Israeli components, mostly airframe.

Yes, the Syrians were caught so unaware that they didn't even have time to summon Green Helmet Guy for some dead baby pics.

Ah, the thing about foresight...

When the other guy doesn't see what you're seeing you can't assume that he's not looking.

DJ makes a good point here. Who knows the mission...having read much elsewhere about it, the objective seems to range from a show of force and capability to a successful direct strike....both are a signal.
The muted response about this incident is absolutely deafening. I wonder if this was on Dinner Jacket's (hat tip JT) mind yesterday as he regurgitated Democratic Retreat talking points?

Marc, yep I've seen references that suggest at least half of the avionics in an F-16I are IAI furnished. Odd looking varient of the F16 by the way, with its side mounted tanks.

Israel is acquiring an advanced version of the aircraft designated as the F-16I. The configuration includes updated avionics, color cockpit displays, and a helmet-mounted display all manufactured by the Israel-based global defense company Elbit; an advanced electronic warfare suite manufactured the Israeli company Elisra; advanced weapons and sensors manufactured by the Israeli Government-owned company Rafael; and other improved systems. Israel Aircraft Industries will continue its long tradition of producing F-16 airframe components. These and other Israeli companies will contribute approximately 25 percent of the aircraft.

Likewise, the F15I uses Israeli avionics especially its EW suite.