Just Deserts (Wizbang)

When the first news about the Israeli Air Force's recent visit to Syria broke, there was a lot of speculation about just what happened. First, it was reported that the IAF planes had "overflown" Syrian territory and dropped a fuel tank. (For the unitiated, that's pretty normal. A lot of military aircraft carry fuel tanks underneath, then dump them when they're empty -- that's why they're called "drop tanks.") That story kept growing and growing until it became a full-fledged air strike on a nuclear weapons facility deep inside Syria.

The official story, though, is... well, nothing. Syria isn't saying much, and Israel's saying nothing at all. In fact, the loudest protests are coming from North Korea, of all places.

So, in the absence of facts, it's up to people to keep speculating and guessing as to what the hell was going on over there, based on what little actual facts are available.

The theory that Syria had a nuclear weapons program going on, Israel found out about it, and pulled another Osirak seems pretty wild, but not completely far-fetched.

Syria has never really seemed that interested in developing nuclear weapons, but there have been reports that they aren't too proud to take others' hand-me-downs. There were reports of convoys of Russian trucks pouring from Iraq to Syria just before the US invasion, and the theory was that Saddam was getting rid of a bunch of his WMD materials.

Toss in the fact that one of the loudest complainers about the attack was North Korea, who is now insisting that they have gotten rid of their nuclear weapons program, and an interesting theory begins to take shape:

North Korea needs to get rid of its nuclear program so it can say "nope, we got nothing. Come and look for yourself." So they talk to Syria -- which is at least strongly rumored to have taken Saddam's stuff off his hands -- and stuff it on to a ship headed for Syria. Syria takes the stuff, hauls it out into the desert, and (with an assist from Iran) picks up where the North Koreans left off -- mixing up nuclear and chemical weapons, and the missiles to deliver them.

Then Israel finds out. They go to their ally, the US, and say "hey, you know those guys in Syria who keep backing terrorists all over the place, and are helping kill your guys in Iraq? They're working on WMDs and missiles to deliver them out in the desert."

The US says "yeah, right. Our spy dudes haven't heard ANYTHING like that, and they NEVER miss anything. Except the fall of the Soviet Union. Or 9/11. Or Libya's WMD program. Or whether or not Saddam really had WMDs. Or the disintegration of Yugoslavia. Or... um... hey, can we take a closer look at that?"

After much hemming and hawing, Israel figures that this is important enough to blow the secret that they can pretty much waltz through Syria's air defenses (the very best the Russians can provide) any time they like, and blow the hell out of the place.

Syria, naturally, is pissed.

"Mighty Dorktator, the Jooos blew the hell out of our secret WMD base!"

"How do you know it was the Jooos, and not just another screwup?"

"They left behind notes that read 'All Your WMD Base Are Belong To The Jooos' and 'Weer In Ur Desert Bombing Ur Nukes.'"

"Curse them! I shall immediately announce their perfidy and call on all the world to denounce them!"

"Curse them for what? Do we admit that we were working on nuclear and chemical weapons to bomb the Jooos, but they figured it out and bombed us first?"

"Curse them again! Well, then issue a strongly-worded denunciation for dropping a fuel tank in the middle of a desert. Say that they killed some poor nomad's favorite camel."

In the meantime, North Korea is pissed, too.

"We gave our best stuff to the Syrians, and they let the Jooos blow it up! Condemn them immediately!"

"Um... if we say that, Dear Leader Brillohead, then we will be admitting we had the stuff, and secretly gave it away."

"Good point. Make it a general condemnation of Israel for bombing Syria, then report to the Soylent Green plant for contradicting me."

Yeah, it's a fairly unfounded theory, but it does what any good theory does: it explains the known facts in a plausible -- and simple -- manner.

I find myself wondering if this is the sort of thing that we really ought to bring much light to. Perhaps I've read too many technothrillers and tales of international intrigue and high-stakes politics, but I have to consider whether this is best handled quietly -- no public admissions one way or another, just the message that "we know what you're working on, and we won't let you go too far." That avoids the whole issue of public pride and escalating demands and threats.

Luckily, that doesn't apply to me. I can speculate and ruminate and concoct all sorts of theories and scenarios without fear of actually having any influence on global matters.

But one thing remains absolutely and completely indisputable: SOMETHING happened out in the Syrian desert. SOMETHING Syrian was visited by Israel, and none of the parties directly involved wants to discuss it publicly.

I just hope those people who aren't publicly looking into it are doing a hell of a lot more privately.

Comments (49)

Jay, on another site about ... (Below threshold)

1. Posted by Justrand | October 7, 2007 9:45 AM | Score: 3 (3 votes cast)

Justrand:

Jay, on another site about a week ago someone did a hillarious imagined conversation between the Syrian military and the Russian "Missile Defense Warranty" depeartment.

As the Syrian keeps complaining about the faulty radar the Russians sold him, the Russian keeps urging the pissed off Syrian to "upgrade to the extended warranty package"...I was in tears!

Posted on October 7, 2007 09:45

Saddam gave Syria a life ti... (Below threshold)

2. Posted by Scrapiron | October 7, 2007 10:03 AM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)

Scrapiron:

Saddam gave Syria a life time warrenty on the hundreds of tons of WMD he shipped before the invasion. His lifetime turned out to be sort of short, as short as the rope they hanged him with, but longer than the brain Syria and North Korea used to blow themselves up while trying to figure out Saddams WMD's. It just keep getting more comical and making the no WMD (except when they were screaming that Saddam had WMD in the 90's) scream by the democrats more of a lie every day. Sad part is when a democrats lies that Saddam had no WMD the democrat leadership (joke) know they have fed the liars the lies.

Posted on October 7, 2007 10:03

Jay, that had me laughing o... (Below threshold)

3. Posted by Oyster | October 7, 2007 10:11 AM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)

Oyster:

Jay, that had me laughing out loud. Hilarious because it's probably very close to what's actually happening. Thanks for setting my mood to "har-har-mode" for the day :)

Posted on October 7, 2007 10:11

"U.S. officials tell ABC Ne... (Below threshold)

4. Posted by Semanticleo | October 7, 2007 10:45 AM | Score: -5 (5 votes cast)

Semanticleo:

"U.S. officials tell ABC News they held a series of high level meetings with Israeli officials in July to discuss action against Syria."

I can imagine who was involved. Agendas?
Your lunch menu today, gentlemen, includes.....

http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.26726,filter.all/pub_detail.asp

http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.26421,filter.all/pub_detail.asp

http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.26441,filter.all/pub_detail.asp

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/906386.html

Posted on October 7, 2007 10:45

Nothing like a great, boist... (Below threshold)

5. Posted by LaMedusa | October 7, 2007 11:07 AM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)

LaMedusa:

Nothing like a great, boisterous laugh early in the am.

Posted on October 7, 2007 11:07

Cleo,Jay writes the ... (Below threshold)

6. Posted by HughS | October 7, 2007 11:10 AM | Score: 3 (3 votes cast)

HughS:

Cleo,
Jay writes the menu...your choice is limited: eat or leave. No one would allow you to serve them here, having seen your poor behavior everywhere else on the innertubes.

Posted on October 7, 2007 11:10

Obtuse, as per usual HugeNi... (Below threshold)

7. Posted by Semanticleo | October 7, 2007 11:17 AM | Score: -4 (4 votes cast)

Obtuse, as per usual HugeNitwit;

The luncheon was served at the WH, and the courses were designed to please the guests.

idiot>

Posted on October 7, 2007 11:17

Why, thank you, Miss Cleo. ... (Below threshold)

8. Posted by Jay Tea | October 7, 2007 11:24 AM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)

Jay Tea:

Why, thank you, Miss Cleo. I don't know why everyone says you're a con artist; I found those links rather educational. They merely affirm things I already believed.

However, I note that your so-called "rebuttal" boils down to "it's in accord with what these people I don't like think," and not in the form of an alternate explanation, a contradiction of the facts and theories I put forth, or in any way any sort of repudiation of what I wrote. Tell us, Miss Cleo, do you have anything to say beyond "those eeeevil Jooos and Neocons!!!!"?

Posted on October 7, 2007 11:24

I can imagine who was... (Below threshold)

9. Posted by HughS | October 7, 2007 11:25 AM | Score: 3 (3 votes cast)

I can imagine who was involved. Agendas?
Your lunch menu today, gentlemen, includes........and you so obtusely inserted yourself into the agenda that your point was obscured.

Or were you serving there Cleo?

Posted on October 7, 2007 11:25

"do you have anything to sa... (Below threshold)

10. Posted by Semanticleo | October 7, 2007 11:35 AM | Score: -4 (4 votes cast)

"do you have anything to say beyond "those eeeevil Jooos and Neocons!!!!"?"

How about, "Fool us once, shame on you. Fool us twice, shame on us".

Or;, With their history of accuracy, a simple statement of accepted fact like; "The Sun will rise in the East tomorrow", should probably be followed by a factcheck.

Know who's spin you're in Jay, unless you like being called 'sucker' twice.

Posted on October 7, 2007 11:35

You should read Tony Judt i... (Below threshold)

11. Posted by kim | October 7, 2007 11:48 AM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)

kim:

You should read Tony Judt in the NYT, today, Cleo, and absorb his last line.
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Posted on October 7, 2007 11:48

OK, here's a shorter versio... (Below threshold)

12. Posted by Jay Tea | October 7, 2007 11:50 AM | Score: 3 (3 votes cast)

OK, here's a shorter version of Miss Cleo's response to my "you got anything to back that up?"

"Anything a neocon says is a lie until proven otherwise -- and not even then."

Even shorter:

"Neocons and Joooos bad!!!"

Shortest:

"Nope."

Apparently Miss Cleo thinks she's back on Oliver Willis' page, where personal attacks are not only acceptable as a substitute for facts, but preferred.

Posted on October 7, 2007 11:50

Those who you used to suppo... (Below threshold)

13. Posted by kim | October 7, 2007 11:52 AM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)

Those who you used to support against us in Iraq, Cleo, are now lining up to fight with us against Iran. Where will you be, sucker?
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Posted on October 7, 2007 11:52

Kim;Just like Clar... (Below threshold)

14. Posted by Semanticleo | October 7, 2007 11:59 AM | Score: -2 (2 votes cast)

Kim;

Just like Clarice, I am mystified at your failure to provide links to your unfathomable statements.

Posted on October 7, 2007 11:59

Well, learn and link. She ... (Below threshold)

15. Posted by kim | October 7, 2007 12:05 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

Well, learn and link. She has. Tony's piece gave me schadenfreude satiety.
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Posted on October 7, 2007 12:05

Frankly son, I don't want t... (Below threshold)

16. Posted by kim | October 7, 2007 12:06 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

Frankly son, I don't want to make it easy to follow my thinking. You have to want it.
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Posted on October 7, 2007 12:06

"Frankly son, I don't want ... (Below threshold)

17. Posted by Semanticleo | October 7, 2007 12:12 PM | Score: -2 (2 votes cast)

"Frankly son, I don't want to make it easy to follow my thinking. You have to want it."

Your paternalism is heart-warming, but my father is deceased. In addition, your persona being an enigma wrapped in mystery, and told in parable, doesn't auger sufficient curiosity for wading through the swamp.

Posted on October 7, 2007 12:12

Oh, but you'd enjoy Tony's ... (Below threshold)

18. Posted by kim | October 7, 2007 12:15 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

Oh, but you'd enjoy Tony's piece. Promise.
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Posted on October 7, 2007 12:15

He's from the Remarque Foun... (Below threshold)

19. Posted by kim | October 7, 2007 12:19 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

He's from the Remarque Foundation, you know, 'All Quiet on the Sunni Front'.
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Posted on October 7, 2007 12:19

Shouldn't that be 'auger fo... (Below threshold)

20. Posted by kim | October 7, 2007 12:20 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)

Shouldn't that be 'auger for'?
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Posted on October 7, 2007 12:20

Cleo stumbles through the t... (Below threshold)

21. Posted by kim | October 7, 2007 12:22 PM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)

Cleo stumbles through the thickets of the English language. Stick to well trod ground. You are less likely to fall flat.
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Posted on October 7, 2007 12:22

Must've hit a nerve. More ... (Below threshold)

22. Posted by Semanticleo | October 7, 2007 12:24 PM | Score: -2 (2 votes cast)

Must've hit a nerve. More OxyContin.

Posted on October 7, 2007 12:24

Cleo's best response. Hey,... (Below threshold)

23. Posted by kim | October 7, 2007 12:26 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)

Cleo's best response. Hey, send the A team.
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Posted on October 7, 2007 12:26

You could have talked about... (Below threshold)

24. Posted by kim | October 7, 2007 12:28 PM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)

You could have talked about Tony and the moral high ground. You could have talked about Iran, Syria or North Korea. You could have talked about the English language. You could have talked about links and their value in rhetoric.

What do we get? Oxycontin. You are revelatory, this AM.
=======================

Posted on October 7, 2007 12:28

You could support your 'tal... (Below threshold)

25. Posted by Semanticleo | October 7, 2007 12:38 PM | Score: -2 (2 votes cast)

You could support your 'talking' with facts that seem to, habitually, be missing from your posts.

I should be content with a pat on the head?

You don't seem stupid, but we shall never know the truth because we have to 'want it' on your terms.

Silly, isn't it?

Posted on October 7, 2007 12:38

I am struck by something at... (Below threshold)

26. Posted by kim | October 7, 2007 12:39 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)

I am struck by something at which you hint, Jay. If this was illicit WMD in Syria, then this was a tremendously good thing to have done. Why, with the world of geopolitical realities that we have today, does it seem like a good thing to hide that good thing under a rock. Surely, this is politically potent news. Why isn't it being used?

Let's hope it's rope-a-dope.
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Posted on October 7, 2007 12:39

Hmm... OxyContin. Was that ... (Below threshold)

27. Posted by Jay Tea | October 7, 2007 12:39 PM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)

Hmm... OxyContin. Was that the stuff was so nasty addictive that the manufacturer got nailed with over half a billion dollars in fines for hiding just how addictive it was?

Oh, yeah, it was.

Surprised more people don't have sympathy for those who got hooked on it after believing Purdue Pharma's lies.

Oh shuttup, Cleo. You are ... (Below threshold)

28. Posted by kim | October 7, 2007 12:40 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)

Oh shuttup, Cleo. You are a sophistical mess. A plaything of an idle hour. Well, now I'm busy. Begone.
=========================

Posted on October 7, 2007 12:40

"Well, now I'm busy. Begone... (Below threshold)

29. Posted by Semanticleo | October 7, 2007 12:44 PM | Score: -2 (2 votes cast)

"Well, now I'm busy. Begone."

Sweet surrender.

Posted on October 7, 2007 12:44

I'm guessing the activity i... (Below threshold)

30. Posted by kim | October 7, 2007 12:45 PM | Score: 3 (3 votes cast)

I'm guessing the activity in July that Cleo points to was when Israel let us know what they'd found, and it took two months to retrieve a sample that would hook NoKo to it. Again, if true, this is devastating news to all the poor suckers who don't believe in the Axis of Evil. I can't help but think the news is being withheld for a more strategic political moment.
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Posted on October 7, 2007 12:45

Surrender to your own ejacu... (Below threshold)

31. Posted by kim | October 7, 2007 12:46 PM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)

Surrender to your own ejaculations, Cleo. Look back over the thread. Have you done anything but contemplate, sourly, your own navel?
===============

Posted on October 7, 2007 12:46

If that's Miss Cleo's stand... (Below threshold)

32. Posted by Jay Tea | October 7, 2007 12:49 PM | Score: 3 (3 votes cast)

If that's Miss Cleo's standard, then she surrendered to me comments and comments ago.

Thanks for the affirmation!