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A Bunch Of Unfounded Theories And Rampant Speculation

You know, I'm beginning to see why there are so many of the 9/11 troothers out there. Stringing together a bunch of facts, factoids, and crackpot theories is FUN. But unlike those ninnies, who have to overcome a bunch of facts and people who actually know what the hell they're talking about, when you speculate about the Israeli raid on Syria, there are no such restraints. So, lifting from a wide variety of sources, here's one way it could all have gone down:

Iran has gotten impatient with its development of its own nuclear weapon. At about the same time, North Korea has decided it's time to play the "retreat" side of the "cheat and retreat" negotiation tactic (one that served Saddam well for about a decade), and they want to get rid of their nuclear weapons materiel right quick. So they cut a deal: the Norks will turn over to Iran a sizable amount of their stuff, including a bomb.

Iran's a bit leery -- remember, the one time the Norks tried to pull of a nuclear test, their bomb was a bit of a dud -- but agrees. However, they know that a ship travelling from North Korea to Iran will draw all kinds of attention. So they decide to go through a third country: Syria.

Syria is no stranger to this sort of thing. After all, just before the US invasion, they took a lot of truckloads of Saddam's stuff across their borders. And just before the first Gulf War, Iran took in a sizable chunk of the Iraqi Air Force -- they just never bothered to return it.

So the Norks cram all their nuclear stuff on to a ship, and send it off to Syria. On the way, they change its flag from North Korean to South Korean -- but Israeli intelligence is still wise to the scheme. They keep a careful eye on things.

The ship docks in Syria, and the cargo is unloaded and shipped out to a (not-so) secret base in the Syrian desert. Then, once it's safely away from populated regions, Israel strikes. They not only bomb the hell out of the place, but they land troops and capture the warhead.

Israel keeps quiet. They know precisely what they did; they don't feel the need to brag.

North Korea goes apeshit. They cut a deal with Iran, and Israel has wrecked it.

Iran shouts angry denunciations. They were on the verge of getting a bomb (even a defective one), and the Israelis busted the deal.

Syria lodges a very mild protest. They didn't tell Iran and North Korea that there was a chance the bomb was taken; at first, they thought it was destroyed. Only after the fact did they discover it was missing.

So now Israel has in its possession concrete evidence of a whole bunch of things that large portions of the world doesn't want to admit:

  1. North Korea has developed and exported a nuclear weapon.
  2. Syria possessed and was in the process of transferring a nuclear weapon.
  3. Iran was on the verge of obtaining a nuclear weapon
.

Toss in the fact that a detailed analysis of the bomb -- design and material -- will indisputably point to the origin of the bomb, and not even the UN Security Council can keep a lid on the story.

And just in case we need any more explanations for why Syria is being so quiet, consider this:

  • The argument against the US using targeted assassinations against enemy leaders has been "we don't want the other side to do the same."
  • Syria has been doing just that sort of thing in Lebanon -- targeted assassinations of political leaders who oppose their occupation of Lebanon.
  • Israel has repeatedly buzzed Dorktator Bashar Al-Assad's home and offices in Damascus.
  • Israel has just proven that it can fly its planes pretty much anywhere over Syria with impunity.

Bashar Assad has to know that Israel sent him a bunch of messages with this strike -- and one of the loudest has to be "you continue to live and rule only by our sufferance."

Of course, this is all just crazy talk. I have not one shred of proof to back up any of it. But it does tend to fit the known facts of the situation, and it explains what little info we do have.

If anyone can cite anything that puts a dent into any of it, I'd be most curious to see/hear it. And Iprivate message to Miss Cleo) just saying "that's just a bunch of neocon warmongering" doesn't cut it.


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Comments (25)

I guess you didn't read thi... (Below threshold)
BarneyG2000:
Barn,How does that... (Below threshold)
Son Of The Godfather:

Barn,

How does that article refute any of Jay's speculation?

I think Jay's analysis is spot on.

BG2, as usual, prominently ... (Below threshold)
kim:

BG2, as usual, prominently displays that he either didn't read his link, or doesn't understand it. It remains an amazing puzzle to me that I can't figure out which is which with Barney. That's why I think he is a machine backed with a bureau.

There is nothing about your link which contradicts the limits of Jay's speculations.
=============================

BarneyMoron...are'nt you la... (Below threshold)
Michael:

BarneyMoron...are'nt you late for recess?

"I guess you didn't read... (Below threshold)

"I guess you didn't read this?"

WTF, Barney? You apparently didn't if you think it's some sort of rebuttal to Jay's theories.

Barney finally provides a link to something and as it turns out, it had no bearing on, well ... anything.

JayThe lingering que... (Below threshold)

Jay
The lingering question I have is over the certainty of the flight path taken by the Israelis. That they have buzzed the king's home makes that point moot I suppose, but it is still even more stunning if they overflew that much Syrian airspace and avoided losses.

There's been a lot of humor about the lack of effectiveness of the Russian built air defense system, but it would be more reassuring to know for a fact that they were defeated so badly.

They're busily paging someo... (Below threshold)
kim:

They're busily paging someone live.
================================

OK, maybe it's ironic; he's... (Below threshold)
kim:

OK, maybe it's ironic; he's implying that Jay did read it. Is that our Barney?
====================================

What's so bad about neocon ... (Below threshold)
John F Not Kerry:

What's so bad about neocon warmongering, anyway?

Jay Tea,For once you... (Below threshold)
Live@9:

Jay Tea,
For once your post actually makes sense! Now if you were able to apply your new critical thinking skills to the "official" 9/11 story there might be hope for us after all.

Can Barney do ironny? For t... (Below threshold)

Can Barney do ironny? For that matter, can liberals do satire?

"Barn,How does tha... (Below threshold)
BarneyG2000:

"Barn,

How does that article refute any of Jay's speculation?

I think Jay's analysis is spot on."

Where did I say that it did? You people have got to stop reading into things that are not happening.

I only found it surprising that Jay had not read the article, so I provided a link to it. What Jay wrote is what most speculators have been saying since the story broke. Syria was caught with some type of nuclear material most likely from NK. Israel launched an attack and the President knew about.

Actually, a good answer, Ba... (Below threshold)
kim:

Actually, a good answer, Barney. It's easy to mistake meaning. Are we a little defensive?
=========================

You people have got to s... (Below threshold)
Peter F.:

You people have got to stop reading into things that are not happening.

Your reputation proceeds you, Barney! LOL THAT'S why....

That's no answer. "I guess... (Below threshold)
Mitchell:

That's no answer. "I guess you didn't read this" is a clear rebuttal to what Jay wrote. However, it was off-point, irrelevant, typically BarneyGoogle. Had only the words "Syria" and "Iran" which had something to do with the subject, but not the post.

So, no troothers, barneygooglers out there care to refute it, or can. Unless they make shit up, like ole BarneyGoogs.

The lingering question I... (Below threshold)
Peter F.:

The lingering question I have is over the certainty of the flight path taken by the Israelis.

I had questions, too. There are three possible paths I think the IAF could've have taken.

1.)All the IAF needed was permission to enter Jordanian airspace which could possibly have been granted to them with a nudge from the U.S. to stand down its radar for the brief flight over its airspace. After that, if the Russian-made Syrian radar is as bad as suspected, the fighters go balls out to Dayr Aw Zawa (all the while in Syrian airspace), take out the target (whatever the hell was there), drop tanks and scoot home along the same path.

2.) The second possible path could again have been entirely through Jordanian AND Iraqi airspace, one of which we control. IAF boogies along the Syrian/Jordanian border, then goes into Iraqi airspace, takes a hard turn north for the short 100+-mile flight to Dayr Aw Zawa, bombs the target and heads home along the same path.

3.) Finally, the most likely path is through northern Jordanian and Saudi Arabian airspace and turning up through Iraq and into Syria. There's precedent for such a flight path given Jordanian and Saudi Arabian cooperation given IDF's 1981 bombing of Saddamn's nuke plant 20 miles north of Baghdad which followed a similar path.

Whatever the path, and whatever the IAF bombed, it had to have been incredibly important and a threat to its national security. This was much bigger than just a test of Syrian radar--this was far, far bigger than that.

And Jay's right, this is FUN.

So the Norks cram all th... (Below threshold)
Peter F.:

So the Norks cram all their nuclear stuff on to a ship, and send it off to Syria. On the way, they change its flag from North Korean to South Korean -- but Israeli intelligence is still wise to the scheme. They keep a careful eye on things.

So, Jay, let me throw a possible wrinkle in this here scenario. If Israeli intel is on to this ship, why not take it out in the international waters of Med Sea, sinking the thing where nobody would notice. More importantly, where the IAF wouldn't have to perform such a potentially risky operation as it apparently did? (I suppose Israel had to confirm the ship's cargo. But still, if there's even a 50% chance that indeed what's on that ship is nuke material or even a bomb, IDF has got to act before it gets into Syrian and becomes a needle in a haystack to find, yes?)

PeterI try to never ... (Below threshold)

Peter
I try to never underestimate the enemy, so I'm going with #2 and refueling support along the way.
However, I hope it's #1. And, yes, it is FUN. The silence is deafening.

Yeah, but Peter, 50% is not... (Below threshold)

Yeah, but Peter, 50% is not enough when it comes to Israel and whether or not others will consider their actions justifiable. Jay has it covered in his theory - they took possession of irrefutable proof first and then bombed the schizzola out of them.

They would most certainly raise a huge stink about a ship being sunk with the full knowledge that the proof went down with it.

Yeah, but Peter, 50% is ... (Below threshold)
Peter F.:

Yeah, but Peter, 50% is not enough when it comes to Israel and whether or not others will consider their actions justifiable.

Oh yeah, I forgot how I'm not supposed to trust the Jooooooooos....silly me!

Seriously, good points. I didn't consider the proof going down with the ship.

Peter -And then th... (Below threshold)
JLawson:

Peter -

And then the environmentalists would have had a friggin' field day with Israeli desecration of the Sacred Waters of Gaia. Think of all the pollution generated by a bombed ship, fuel oil floating all over! Not to mention the 'cement' (cough-cough) covering the ocean bottom.

All the more reason to wait until it was on land, get proof, and then do a practice run for an Iranian smackdown

Peter,Not to menti... (Below threshold)

Peter,

Not to mention the fact that Israel probably wanted to make sure for their own sakes that they were right - and exactly how right they were. There's a big difference between suspecting some sort of conventional bomb is on the way to Syria vs. nuclear technology.

Also, proof is good to have to keep Syria silent. "Complain too much and we'll let everybody know what you're up to" is rather powerful. It keeps Syria silent, which helps Israel if they don't yet desire a public spectacle. If they do eventually decide to pursue this in a more public venue, they can just dust off their "proof about Syria" box and display the contents to the world.

How, exactly, is one suppos... (Below threshold)
LT:

How, exactly, is one supposed to "refute" a work of fiction?

"Of course, this is all just crazy talk. I have not one shred of proof to back up any of it." - Jay Tea

Don't worry Jay, that's never stopped you before.

It all reads very plausible... (Below threshold)
LaMedusa:

It all reads very plausible to me. Here is another news story that would reinforce such speculation:

"Washington was rife with speculation last week about the precise nature of the operation. One source said the air strikes were a diversion for a daring Israeli commando raid, in which nuclear materials were intercepted en route to Iran and hauled to Israel. Others claimed they were destroyed in the attack.

There is no doubt, however, that North Korea is accused of nuclear cooperation with Syria, helped by AQ Khan's network. John Bolton, who was undersecretary for arms control at the State Department, told the United Nations in 2004 the Pakistani nuclear scientist had "several other" customers besides Iran, Libya and North Korea."

"Complain too much a... (Below threshold)

"Complain too much and we'll let everybody know what you're up to"

Abigail, well said.




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