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"Iowa Picks Corn. New Hampshire Picks Presidents."

Well, it's only a couple of days before the New Hampshire primary, and it's starting to look like we're going to have to do the country a favor AGAIN and take out some of the garbage.

Last night, several of the Democratic candidates attended a big fundraising dinner. And Hillary Clinton got a chilly reception.

In fact, she was booed twice.

On the Republican side, Iowa's darling Mike Huckabee is finding the Granite State a bit chilly this winter. We have our own priorities -- summed up pretty well here:

His aides are wary of New Hampshire. "It's all no tax, no government there," said Bob Wickers, a top strategist. "It's not ideal."

I've never heard of Bob Wickers before, but he's dead right on two points -- those two elements are pretty much the key to New Hampshire, and his guy's sadly lacking on both points.

I'm not going to make any predictions about how the primary's going to go. I know my fellow New Hampshirites, and we do NOT like to be taken for granted. (Indeed, we like to give the saying a bit of a twist and say "don't take us for granite.") But I will venture out a slight prognostication:

The Democrats' fight will be between Obama and Edwards -- and Obama has the advantage. Clinton will once again take a distant third.

On the Republican side, a lot of people still like John McCain. The state went for him in 2000. Romney has some clout, and he will likely make a good showing, but if he doesn't clearly beat McCain, he loses in the expectations game. Giuliani will also do well, but won't win it.

The wild card is Fred Thompson. He OUGHT to have the greatest appeal for traditional New Hampshire Republicans, but his campaign just hasn't taken off. There could be a hefty underground movement -- I've seen and heard a lot of people liking him and saying they'll vote for him.

Iowa took out two Democrats, and good riddance to Biden and Dodd. I suspect that New Hampshire will take out at least one or two Republicans, and will take a hefty chunk out of Mike Huckabee. We won't finish him off, but we'll be setting him up for someone else to deliver the coup de grace.

Oh, and America? You're welcome.


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Comments (13)

Clinton will once aga... (Below threshold)

Clinton will once again take a distant third.

I think a third place in NH means the end of Clinton. It will be interesting to see the gender breakdown of the vote. Any prognostication on this Jay? I think it holds the answer for Hillary.

I must confess this is the first time since 1992 that I have been riveted by the coverage of the NH primary. Can't get a enough of it.

And,

We won't finish him (Huck) off, but we'll be setting him up for someone else to deliver the coup de grace.

Well, please tell why and how, Jay. I happen to agree with you, but you're the man on the scene and loyal Wizbang readers want to know!!


My only problem with Thomps... (Below threshold)
molon labe:

My only problem with Thompson is that he has not attracted serious money to date. And as a wage earner I can't easily afford contributions, so I need to put my $$ and votes where they will count.

Any ideas on why he has not gotten at least one major contributor so far as I can tell?

Watching the video of that ... (Below threshold)
Allen:

Watching the video of that gathering, witch Shillary wasn't booed. That writer of the article is full of manure. She probably deserves to be booed, but honest reporting isn't being done in this instance.

And hopefully she will come in last, not 3rd.

No, NH certainly won't "fin... (Below threshold)
Alan Orfi:

No, NH certainly won't "finish off" Huckabee, especially if he finishes a strong third and then wins Michigan and South Carolina.

The only Republican candidate who faces a possible finishing off, unfortunately, is Fred Thompson. If he could have just done a little better in Iowa, then he could have salvaged NH and maybe made a serious run at SC.

I heard it on the radio and... (Below threshold)
914:

I heard it on the radio and it sounded like booing to Me Allen?

"We wont finish Him off,but we'll be setting Him up for someone else to deliver the coup de grace."

Thank You and it cant happen soon enough.

Well....Take a loo... (Below threshold)
Rory:

Well....

Take a look at this -

2008 New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary-

************Current*****Current****Last 5**
************Standard***Sensitive****Poll**
************Estimate****Estimate****Average

McCain......31.0........33.2........31.4
Romney.....28.4.........27.6........26.4
Huckabee...11.1.........10.9........10.8
Giuliani.....10.7...........9.6........10.2
Paul..........7.2...........7.4.........7.6
Thompson...2.0...........1.8.........1.8

(see also 2008 New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary)

Pollster

They also have an interesting graph at the link I left.

And then this-from realclea... (Below threshold)
Rory:

And then this-from realclearpolitics.com-


.......New Hampshire Republican Primary
....Tuesday, January 8 | Delegates at Stake: 24
..
.................McCain Romney Huckabee Paul Giuliani Thompson Spread
RCP Average... 31.0.... 27.8..... 11.5 ...9.5... 9.0....... 2.3 ....McCain +3.2
Rasmussen .....31....... 26....... 11...... 14.... 8......... 5 ......McCain +5.0
Suffolk/WHDH .26 ......30 ........11....... 8.... 11 ........2 ......Romney +4.0
Zogby Track.... 32...... 30........ 12....... 7 .....9........ 1...... McCain +2.0
American Res... 35 ......25........ 12 ......9..... 8........ 1 ......McCain +10.0


All polling done between Jan. 01-04

Long story short I was abou... (Below threshold)
Rory:

Long story short I was about to take Javitz on his Huckabee third bet in New Hampshire-looking at the Pollster.com data but when you consider the more recent polling and that the Huckster has THE BIG MO and it looks like he won't be stopped.

Even scarier The Huckster is pulling up to about 21% in FLORIDA and that was back on Dec. 19th-

Gah- I can only imagine what he is polling like now-I don't even want to look.

Now I was hoping that New Hampshire would be rational but they are off voting for RON PAUL jeebus and then Thompson who nationally rarely cracks above 10% and there in lies the answer to why he isn't getting the big money.

Smart business doesn't bet that way.

Could New Hampshire change that?

Well....Thomspon himself was on CNN or Fox News yesterday saying that he was not contesting New Hampshire.

So- what is left after that?

South Carolina-ghad that state was tailor made for a Republican Jimminah Carter.

Florida-by gawd he could get it.

Michigan-well........weird Romney, not so weird if you know that Romney's dad was elected the governor-Republican and ya-he might have been gasp! Mormon.

The Republican party was not so Socially Conservative back then-just ask Goldwater.

This looking more and more like a real mess and we are heading possibly for a contested convention.

Jay you could stop all that and vote for Giuliani damn it man!

{Just jokin'} but you know I use to live in the Panhandle in Florida and they ain't ever going to tell me again that one vote can't make a difference.

Spend it wisely young skywalker.

I'd think, in a no-tax stat... (Below threshold)
BlueNight:

I'd think, in a no-tax state, Huckabee would do well. His unlimited support for the FAIR Tax is my #1 reason for voting for him; his telivision and debate appearances are the #2 reasons.

Well I liked Huckabee, and ... (Below threshold)
Rory:

Well I liked Huckabee, and I even liked him on that tax talk even though it's not realistically feasible until he mad that "bunker" comment.

It was needless pandering to the Extreme Left and I think it showed bad judgement because he didn't need to do it.

I don't trust him one bit on national defense now-and that's my primary interest.

"It's all no tax, no govern... (Below threshold)
Knightbrigade:

"It's all no tax, no government there," said Bob Wickers, a top strategist. "It's not ideal."

WTF kind of Republican prefers (taxes) and MORE Government?!!?? ....oh ya I know..a liberal one.

We won't even mention where he stands on ILLEGAL immigration...

Fred Thompson is the most consistent conservative on just about all the issues.

I dont' think any of the re... (Below threshold)

I dont' think any of the republican candidates have attracted big money because none of them have broken away from the pack yet *that* is when the big money starts rolling in.

We have contributed $10 here and there to the Thompson campaign. It isn't much, but it is all put to use, heck even $1 adds to it.

There's a blogburst going on at www.fred08.com right now swing by and donate because every little bit helps.

Hillary won. HAHAHAHA! SO m... (Below threshold)
sandy:

Hillary won. HAHAHAHA! SO much for what you know. Nothing. HAHAHAHA!

Romney will be our next POTUS.




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