I have a feeling Romney is going to pull out a win (the gold that has thus far eluded him) in Michigan. My smart cuz, Scott Elliott, disagrees, but not by much. Check out all his predictions at Election Projection. Scott and John Hawkins have rounded up other predictions as well. I agree with Allah on this one:
The polls are open and time's a-wastin'. If Romney can't win on his home court then he can't win anywhere, and I can't believe he can't win anywhere. Mitt in an upset, with a 50% chance of tears during the victory speech when he inevitably says something about Michigan having -- oof -- "brought home the gold." Chance of tears from Hugh Hewitt? 100%.E.M. Zanotti, who lives in Michigan, will be covering the primary tonight at American Princess. Check out her postcard from Michigan at NRO.
Update: Early exit poll results (for what they are worth) from Jim Geraghty:
I'm hearing the first round of exit polls have Romney 35, McCain 29, Huckabee 15, Ron Paul 10, Giuliani 4. This doesn't count absentee ballots.If this holds, the networks will be able to announce shortly after 9 p.m. eastern time...
Of course, all the standard disclaimers apply, and the later voters may differ from the early rounds, and the polls are still open, so if you're a Michigander, go out and vote for your favorite.
Update (9:15 pm): Romney is the winner with McCain second and Huckabee third. I guess it got called at 9 ET, but I am not sure because I have been watching American Idol. Just saw McCain start his speech only to be interrupted for Romney. Ouch.
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2008 Presidential Race
Comments (20)
Well, I went and voted for ... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Dave W | January 15, 2008 6:03 PM | Score: 3 (3 votes cast)
Well, I went and voted for Fred today. Not that it's gonna be worth a hill of beans in this lousy state, but i did my civic duty to vote for the correct person.
And once again, Mitt isn't out if he loses MI. If he can't win in MI where can he win? How about anywhere that doesn't have open primaries and doesn't have all the democrats off the ballot. People seem to be forgetting that the first 3 states are all extrememly stupid and abnormal circumstances. Mitt still has delegate lead too. Wise up.
1. Posted by Dave W | January 15, 2008 6:03 PM |
Score: 3 (3 votes cast)
Posted on January 15, 2008 18:03
2. Posted by Dave W | January 15, 2008 6:10 PM | Score: 3 (3 votes cast)
Don't forget that once again a bunch of liberals and independents are voting on the republican side this time. Hillary Clinton and Uncommitted. She can't lose. She won't get any delegates so either way it doesn't matter. Democrats an Independents voting in a REPUBLICAN PRIMARY. You don't think this is going to skew any results?? You think this is a fair assessment of Romney? You think that if he can't win in a biased environment he can't win anywhere else? Sounds like typical media conventional wisdom. Wait till some typical conservative states come rolling along and if he loses then, i can see him dropping out. But not by losing a few biased liberal states where he is actually on top with delegates.
2. Posted by Dave W | January 15, 2008 6:10 PM |
Score: 3 (3 votes cast)
Posted on January 15, 2008 18:10
3. Posted by Herman | January 15, 2008 6:59 PM | Score: -3 (7 votes cast)
"I have a feeling Romney is going to pull out a win (the gold that has thus far eluded him)" -- Lorie
Oh, how they forget Wyoming:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/01/06/romney-wins-wyoming-caucu_n_80017.html
But hey, come to think of it, Wyoming is forgettable, just like any typical red state.
3. Posted by Herman | January 15, 2008 6:59 PM |
Score: -3 (7 votes cast)
Posted on January 15, 2008 18:59
4. Posted by matthew | January 15, 2008 7:48 PM | Score: 0 (4 votes cast)
...the first 3 states are all extrememly stupid ...
Based on what? Average Jeopardy winnings? Literacy rates? That's an awfully stupid generalization, wouldn't you say Dave?
4. Posted by matthew | January 15, 2008 7:48 PM |
Score: 0 (4 votes cast)
Posted on January 15, 2008 19:48
5. Posted by marc | January 15, 2008 8:29 PM | Score: 3 (3 votes cast)
matthew - "Based on what? Average Jeopardy winnings? Literacy rates? That's an awfully stupid generalization, wouldn't you say Dave?"
Um, no it isn't.
Iowa was a caucus not a pull the lever to vote state. Those in favor of the 3rd or lesser candidates are woo'ed by offers of fresh baked goods, or more sinister things, to switch to the more popular candidates. Iowa is a fraud and has nothing to do with the normal voting process.
N Hampshire... in NO WAY resembles the demographic make-up of America as a whole and is well known for it's maverick voters. IT means a lot to the pundits (retch!) and media types (puke again!) but not much else.
Michigan... the Dems have boycotted campaigning there, need I say more?
Oh, and BTW, the move is afoot to have the Dems cross over and vote for the Repub that they feel is the least threat to "their" candidate.
Another fraud.
5. Posted by marc | January 15, 2008 8:29 PM |
Score: 3 (3 votes cast)
Posted on January 15, 2008 20:29
6. Posted by matthew | January 15, 2008 8:33 PM | Score: -4 (4 votes cast)
Oh, they're stupid because they like baked goods or don't elect Republicans. Thanks, marc.
6. Posted by matthew | January 15, 2008 8:33 PM |
Score: -4 (4 votes cast)
Posted on January 15, 2008 20:33
7. Posted by stan25![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://wizbangblog.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 15, 2008 8:41 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
The tallies are starting to come in and it beginning to look like a landslide for Romney. If the results remain the same margin as they are now, Romney is the winner and McLame the crybaby.
As of now, 20:40 et, Romney has the lead by several 100 votes. the tally for Romney is nearing 10k
7. Posted by stan25![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://wizbangblog.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 15, 2008 8:41 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on January 15, 2008 20:41
8. Posted by Herman | January 15, 2008 8:58 PM | Score: -2 (2 votes cast)
With 6 percent of the precincts in thus far, Paul is ahead of Thompson in the Battle for Fifth Place. (Romney leads all of them).
8. Posted by Herman | January 15, 2008 8:58 PM |
Score: -2 (2 votes cast)
Posted on January 15, 2008 20:58
9. Posted by stan25![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://wizbangblog.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 15, 2008 9:01 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Fox News has just called the race for Romney. For the tally Romney was the clear choice all along
9. Posted by stan25![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://wizbangblog.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 15, 2008 9:01 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on January 15, 2008 21:01
10. Posted by Herman | January 15, 2008 9:04 PM | Score: -2 (2 votes cast)
My mistake, all you Fredheads out there: Thompson and Paul are in the Battle for Fourth Place, they're both ahead of Rudy G.!
10. Posted by Herman | January 15, 2008 9:04 PM |
Score: -2 (2 votes cast)
Posted on January 15, 2008 21:04
11. Posted by Jim Addison | January 15, 2008 9:07 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
The exit polls were saying Romney, so that makes sense.
The big question now is: what effect does this have on the race in general, and South Carolina in particular (which votes Saturday)? Romney pulled his staff out of SC last week (moving them to Michigan), and took down his advertising (after spending an estimated $3 million in the state since last spring).
11. Posted by Jim Addison | January 15, 2008 9:07 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on January 15, 2008 21:07
12. Posted by HughS | January 15, 2008 9:09 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
My mistake, all you Fredheads out there: ....remedial math Herman.
Report back with your grade.
12. Posted by HughS | January 15, 2008 9:09 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on January 15, 2008 21:09
13. Posted by Baggi | January 15, 2008 9:21 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Jim,
You might not have seen it but Romney restarted his advertising in SC today. I don't think he's written off that state.
13. Posted by Baggi | January 15, 2008 9:21 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on January 15, 2008 21:21
14. Posted by Herman | January 15, 2008 9:27 PM | Score: -3 (3 votes cast)
Fredheads, it's not looking good:
Ron Paul 13,039
Fred Thompson 7,927
(20 percent of the precincts in)
14. Posted by Herman | January 15, 2008 9:27 PM |
Score: -3 (3 votes cast)
Posted on January 15, 2008 21:27
15. Posted by 914 | January 15, 2008 9:35 PM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Herman and the hermits
Who cares?
15. Posted by 914 | January 15, 2008 9:35 PM |
Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Posted on January 15, 2008 21:35
16. Posted by marc | January 15, 2008 11:41 PM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
matthew - "Oh, they're stupid because they like baked goods or don't elect Republicans. Thanks, marc."
Hey if you want to claim some kinda win based not on strictly votes cast for each candidate, but on what may have been offered some 3rd of 4th tier no-name that was enticed with sweet goods to switch to YOUR guy/gal, have at it. (BUT hurry up, 'cause if you fail to pull the cookie based switcheroo in time you won't be counted)
As for the rest, the Repubs in Iowa DID have a legit vote. You know one where one person, one vote and conducted by pulling a lever in a booth. Ya know that "stupid" thing called a secret ballot?
I haven't a clue where your "don't elect Republicans" is coming from, but I doubt if you do either.
16. Posted by marc | January 15, 2008 11:41 PM |
Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Posted on January 15, 2008 23:41
17. Posted by matthew | January 16, 2008 12:44 AM | Score: -4 (4 votes cast)
I still don't understand why Iowa, Michigan, and NH are "stupid". I thought Massachusetts, California, and pre-9/11 New York were the stupid states, as per wankosphere CW.
17. Posted by matthew | January 16, 2008 12:44 AM |
Score: -4 (4 votes cast)
Posted on January 16, 2008 00:44
18. Posted by marc | January 16, 2008 5:15 AM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
matthew - "as per wankosphere CW"
And the use of that term explains your confusion, it's based on BDS or a derivative of it.
18. Posted by marc | January 16, 2008 5:15 AM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on January 16, 2008 05:15
19. Posted by McGehee![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://wizbangblog.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 16, 2008 1:26 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
19. Posted by McGehee![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://wizbangblog.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 16, 2008 1:26 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on January 16, 2008 13:26
20. Posted by McGehee![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://wizbangblog.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 16, 2008 1:26 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
(Sorry, matthew -- you just walked into it, is all.)
20. Posted by McGehee![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://wizbangblog.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| January 16, 2008 1:26 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on January 16, 2008 13:26