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Wizbang Primary Results

First off, thanks to the 79 people who registered a vote in our primary/caucus/WAG. The results are far too small to be scientifically significant, but they are still a valid sample of the internet demographic of our niche.

First, the Democrats. Here are the results from the voting:

OPEN
Obama: 25 votes, 38%
Clinton: 21 votes, 32%
Lieberman: 10 votes, 15%
Richardson: 5 votes, 8%
Biden: 3 votes, 5%
Edwards: 1 vote, 2%
Miller: 1 vote, 2%

Sounds like a good race, but here's what happened when we count only Democrats and Leaners:

CLOSED
Obama: 4 votes, 100%

One identified Democrat had no choice, and the other 4 went with Obama. However, 4 votes is far too small to be reliable as a guage of the party intent.

CROSS-VOTING
Obama: 21 votes, 34%
Clinton: 21 votes, 34%
Lieberman: 10 votes, 16%
Richardson: 5 votes, 8%
Biden: 3 votes, 5%
Edwards: 1 vote, 2%
Miller: 1 vote, 2%

Republicans appear to be unsure of who they would rather face in the General Election, but they appear to be convinced that it will be either Obama or Clinton.

Now, the Republicans' primary. First, the Open results:

OPEN
Thompson: 53 votes, 68%
Romney: 9 votes, 12%
McCain: 7 votes, 9%
Giuliani: 5 votes, 6%
Huckabee: 2 votes, 3%
Hunter: 1 vote, 1%
Paul: 1 vote, 1%

Thompson flat-out stomps everyone else, It's not even close.

Next, the Closed results for Republicans and Leaners only. Remember that the Democrat side showed a big change from 'Open' to 'Closed', but not here on the GOP side:

CLOSED
Thompson: 52 votes, 71%
Romney: 9 votes, 12%
Giuliani: 5 votes, 7%
McCain: 4 votes, 5%
Huckabee: 2 votes, 3%
Hunter: 1 vote, 1%

Thompson's powerful result becomes even more pronounced when the voters are only Republicans. Keep this in mind as we consider the as-yet-undecided state primaries.

So who did the Democrats like? Here are the Crossover results:

CROSS-VOTING
McCain: 3 votes, 60%
Thompson: 1 vote, 20%
Paul: 1 vote, 20%

Well, with only 5 votes total it is not indicative of a real trend, but it is interesting to see McCain's popularity with the Left.

So, what does it mean? I'm not going to read too much into what the Democrats think from this poll, because we had too little participation on that side to really give a good look, but even a sample as small as 32 respondents can be significant in showing a trend. For Thompson to stomp the field as thoroughly as he did here, suggests that there is in fact a substantial base for Thompson, in spite of his results so far.

So what's going on? Fred is liked by all conservatives, and from what I can tell the McCain people (like Medved), the Romney fans (like Hewitt) and the Giuliani and Huckabee fans go to great lengths to avoid a head-to-head comparison between their guy and Fred, but it was Hucakbee who grabbed Iowa, McCain who nabbed New Hampshire and South Carolina, and Romney who took Wyoming and Nevada. A lot of that has to do with the amount of money and time each of them had to invest, but it is also due to the character of the races in each of those states. Like Giuliani, Thompson seems to be playing for the South and the Super Tuesday contests, and he simply got into South Carolina too late to make an impact in that crowded field. It will be intriguing to see what he decides to do now, how he can - hopefully - finally tap that resource of promising yet so far unfulfilled potential. Here at least, Fred is far from dead.

As for Romney, he obviously has work to do to get the support of the base. No one I know thinks Romney would be bad for the GOP, but he's no more inspiring than a glass of milk. Room temperature milk and no cookies. McCain and Huckabee, well, to me they played off niche strengths but I just don't see them carrying the ball all the way to the goal line, not even the mid-field that is the party nomination. As for Paul and Keyes, they should follow the lead of Duncan Hunter. I don't think they will, but in the end it won't change the course of the party nomination.

That leaves Rudy, to my mind the second wild card (Fred is the first Wild Card and Mitt is the Mild Card) on the GOP side. SInce he has not yet won a primary, Rudy's not getting any press these days, and his 'wait for the big ones' strategy is one which will prove to be truly brilliant or truly foolish with little chance of any landing in between. I don't agree with Rudy's social positions, but his promise to appoint conservative justices and judges makes that a lot less important, and I have to say I respect the man for not changing his positions to please anyone else. I hope we get a lot more debate in the coming weeks, so we can shake out which of the Wild One, the Wild Other One, or the Mild One would be the best choice for the party. Right now, even though he hasn't wowed the states in the races so far, it looks like online Fred's ahead. Way ahead.


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Comments (12)

Can I change My Democratic ... (Below threshold)
914:

Can I change My Democratic choice from McCain to Zell Miller? Hes much more honest.

By the way, think Romney won Michigan too..

I believe the typical blog ... (Below threshold)
Jeff Blogworthy:

I believe the typical blog reader is more informed on the issues. Ann Coulter nails it in her latest column:

"I had no idea that Republican voters in Iowa and New Hampshire planned to do absolutely zero research on the candidates and vote on the basis of random impulses.

Dear Republicans: Please do one-tenth as much research before casting a vote in a presidential election as you do before buying a new car."

This is the feeling I am getting from these races. Shallow people satisfied with empty rhetoric and promises that are sure to be broken.

Huckabee spouts Edwards' lines; Romney promises government bailouts to Michigan; McCain is just... McCain; The Hillaryesque Giuliani says he will appoint originalists to the bench, but his record in appointing judges is dubious.

Thompson is the only conservative. The average voter cannot be troubled to figure this out for themselves. They prefer to be spoon fed.

If Coulter is right in her ... (Below threshold)

If Coulter is right in her analysis, and I believe she is, then this portends a real change in the process of electing/caucusing for candidates in the Republican Party.

History is certainly not on the side of Romney, Thompson or Giuliani.....unfortunately.

Looks like Thompson fanbois... (Below threshold)
jpm100:

Looks like Thompson fanbois have tapped into the same internet voting technology that the Paulbots had.

I kid.

Ah rats, I missed the call ... (Below threshold)
Eric F:

Ah rats, I missed the call for votes.

With the Republican primari... (Below threshold)
nehemiah:

With the Republican primaries in such disarray, I believe that we need to coalesce around one anti-McCain. My choice is Rudy for the following reasons:

1) He has been a consistent and strong supporter of President Bush when it has not been popular.

2) He has said that he liked the appointments of John Roberts and Sam Alito and would select judges like them (look, I'm not in la-la land -- he may not appoint such excellent justices, but the probability is that he'll appoint okay ones vs Obama/Hillary who would appoint ones like Darth Vader Ginsburg.

3) I believe that as President he would be much less liberal than as mayor of New York (it is not realistic that any mayor of New York will govern that office as a conservative).

Republicans appear to be... (Below threshold)
Les Nessman:

Republicans appear to be unsure of who they would rather face in the General Election, but they appear to be convinced that it will be either Obama or Clinton.

Actually, I was voting for who I thought would be best for the country from amongst the Dems; not who I would rather the Repub candidate face.

..it was Hucakbee who grabbed Iowa, McCain who nabbed New Hampshire and South Carolina, and Romney who took Wyoming and Nevada.

In other words, it is still up for grabs for any of the 5 serious Repub candidates. This nomination isn't even close to being locked up by anyone yet.

N:With the Repu... (Below threshold)
Les Nessman:

N:

With the Republican primaries in such disarray, I believe that we need to coalesce around one anti-McCain. My choice is Rudy ..

Sheesh! We've had what, 6 rather not-so-significant states vote and you're ready to jump on the panic bandwagon already. The media has been playing this election coverage up way too much and for way too long. Don't buy into the media hype.

It's way too early to do anything but support the candidate of your choice.

Wow. And to think that I... (Below threshold)
waveman:

Wow. And to think that I voted against Zell Miller three times [2 Gov, 1 US Sen] when I lived in Georgia. Used to call him Zig-Zag Zell. But he saw the light after 9/11 while in the Senate and saw Daschle and Company start playing politics with the victims. Got that old Marine Sargeant's dander up. He's a changed man. Now I vote write-in in a Wizbang poll.
Oh well, even when I didn't support him he was a damn sight better than King Roy [Barnes] who succeeded him as Gov. We were able to boot him after one term.

hey, I voted for bin laden,... (Below threshold)

hey, I voted for bin laden, where is my vote in the final tally?

Cap. Infidel, d'you think O... (Below threshold)
DJ Drummond:

Cap. Infidel, d'you think ObL would show up for the convention as a candidate?

And if he did, would the convention even be there the next day?

Hill the Merciless: Carvill... (Below threshold)
The Listkeeper:

Hill the Merciless: Carville, I'm bored...What plaything can you offer me today?
Carville: A major country on the North American Continent.. The inhabitants call it..The United States.
Hill The Merciless: How prosperous it looks...
A bony man-hand presses a button marked TAX INCREASES...the United States is rocked to its foundations.
Carville: Most excellent, your majesty...Will you be destroying this "United States"?
Hill The Merciless: Later. I like to play with things for a while... Before complete annihlation...
(guitar bassline)
FRED! AH-AHHHHHHHHHH
Saviour of the Universe!
FRED! Ah-ahhhhhhhhhhhhh!
He'll save every one of us!
FRED! Ah-ahhhhhhhhhhhhh!
He's a conservative!
FRED! Ah-ahhhhhhhhhhhhh!
King of the Conservatives!
He's for everyone of us!
Stands for everyone of us!
He'll save with his Icy Glare(tm) every man every woman every child, he's FRED!




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