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The Worst Pre-Election Media Polls of 2008 -- So Far

With the media/Democrats heading towards a brokered or perhaps even deadlocked convention, there will be plenty of further opportunities for mass media pollsters to continue outing themselves as incompetent hacks driven largely by agenda and *correct* along many of the same lines by which stopped clocks are correct.

Having said that, however, there already have been enough asinine polls to put together a list of the very best examples -- or worst, depending upon your perspective -- of media polling dissonance.

3. Rasmussen Poll of California Democrat Primary -- February 3, 2008

Poll: Obama, 45-44
Result: Clinton, 52-43

Yeah, it's true, there were other pollsters, e.g., Zogby, who were much further out to sea. Rasmussen, however, quite unlike Zogby, doesn't have the excuse of being a blithering liberal idiot.

Furthermore Rasmussen is smart enough to know that Latinos and Asians were not going to vote for Obama under any circumstances, regardless of how they responded to telephone polling. The agenda of higher ratings was allowed to outweigh common sense. Tisk, tisk.

2. Gallup/USA Today Poll of New Hampshire Democrat Primary -- January 6, 2008

Poll: Obama, 41-28
Result: Clinton, 39-36

Glug, glug, glug.

1. Datamar, Inc. Poll of Florida GOP Primary -- Jan. 27, 2008

Poll: Romney over McCain, 36-23
Result: McCain over Romney, 36-31

When I first saw that poll I actually laughed at loud. Seriously.

The notion of Romney beating McCain in Florida was suspect. The notion of Romney beating McCain in Florida by the facially-preposterous margin of 13 full percentage points(!) was, well, downright liberal in its absurdity.

Didn't anybody at Datamar stop to think McCain had just won the South Carolina primary the week beforehand??!! I mean, come on. Furthermore how could Romney possibly have won Florida by 13 full points over anybody -- much less McCain -- in what then was a four-way plurality contest?! Sheesh. Not to mention that Florida and South Carolina have one giant thing in common -- large populations of active and retired military. Plus Florida's GOP has a large percentage of staunchly-conservative and business-savvy Latinos, who for obvious reasons were going to vote more in favor of McCain than for Romney.

So, congratulations, Datamar. You take the cake.


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Comments (7)

So, congratulations, Dat... (Below threshold)
Rory:

So, congratulations, Datamar. You take the cake.

Oh come on-can't we make Zogby eat it?

All pollsters are sucking w... (Below threshold)
sam:

All pollsters are sucking wind this year. Even if they get the winner/loser right, the numbers are way off the MOE. Once the results are in, they blithely go on to the next state, hoping nobody notices their utter garbage in the last state.

Plus, have you seen the exit polls, when compared to the actual results?

For one reason or the other, nobody can get a representative sample anywhere.

I want to see what the poll... (Below threshold)
BarneyG2000:

I want to see what the poll results are after the possible McCain affair with a lobbyist breaks?

Barney is going to hit ever... (Below threshold)

Barney is going to hit every bait cast this year.

Barney, yawn. I'm waiting ... (Below threshold)
Jo:

Barney, yawn. I'm waiting for Hillary to bring out the big guns to smear Obama - after all she has nothing to lose now.

The pollsters keep trying t... (Below threshold)
Jim:

The pollsters keep trying to show us how relevant they are. even after years of proving they aren't. What is bad is that they do influence things in the wrong way. Which is probably what they are after in the first place.

On the California polling, ... (Below threshold)
Steve Crickmore:

On the California polling, the actual vote on the day of the poll was probably what the pollsters predicted a very slight edge for Obama...But the fact was that roughly 40% of the vote was a mail in, in most cases weeks before before the California campaign began in earnest, and that vote went substantially for Clinton.




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