Click the below link for an analysis of the upcoming media/Democrat primary in Indiana.
Indiana Democrat Primary
-- Whites outnumber blacks in Indiana by a 9:1 ratio. Quite unlike various states in the deep South, whites in Indiana still make up the overwhelming majority of Democrat primary voters.
-- Most of Obama's support outside the black demographic consists of weathly liberals, Yuppies, and young and inexperienced college and grad students. Indiana, however, is a blue-collar state with less-than-average median and per capita incomes.
-- Obama fares well with Democrat farmers (who by long-standing tradition are socialists), but Indiana is more urban than rural. The state's population density is much higher than, for example, Wisconsin's.
Ergo:
Clinton easily will win the state. Probably not by the same margin by which she'll prevail in Pennsylvania (which possesses a much older demographic and more Catholics), but a hefty margin nonetheless.
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2008 Presidential Race
Comments (5)
As a Hoosier for 35 of my 3... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Brian the Adequate | April 14, 2008 7:47 PM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
As a Hoosier for 35 of my 37.5 years(except for 2.5 years in Grad school in Colorado), don't forget to add in:
1) Open primary with an unchallenged R governor and no significant house primary battles on the R side. Lots of R voters are gonna vote for Hillary to try and send the fight to the convention.
2) Evan Bayh endorses Hillary, Evan carries a lot of weight in Indiana. Obama does not have anyone even close supporting him.
3) As much as it pains me to say it about my home state, don't underestimate the race factor in Indiana. My experience suggests that 10-15% of the Dem voters will not vote for a black man. Heck, the KKK was listed under Fraternal organizations in the phone book in some small towns as late as 1996.
I think Hillary is gonna cruise in Indiana and absent Bayh as the VP, You can chalk Indiana up to McCain already no matter who the donkeys nominate.
1. Posted by Brian the Adequate | April 14, 2008 7:47 PM |
Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Posted on April 14, 2008 19:47
2. Posted by Brian | April 14, 2008 8:07 PM | Score: -3 (5 votes cast)
Clinton easily will win the state.
Gee, you think? I'm sure all those polls that have her up by at least 10 points will sure be happy that your insightful analysis agrees with them.
2. Posted by Brian | April 14, 2008 8:07 PM |
Score: -3 (5 votes cast)
Posted on April 14, 2008 20:07
3. Posted by Rory | April 14, 2008 10:22 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Brian-
Well you might want to go tell Obama he's an idiot.
Obama:Indiana Could be Tiebreaker
MSNBC First Read
3. Posted by Rory | April 14, 2008 10:22 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on April 14, 2008 22:22
4. Posted by COgirl | April 14, 2008 11:06 PM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
I think Obama's remarks about Pennsylvania are going to come back and bite him in the ass in Indiana. This should be an easy Clinton win, barring any more lies from her. Or at least getting caught lying again.
4. Posted by COgirl | April 14, 2008 11:06 PM |
Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Posted on April 14, 2008 23:06
5. Posted by Diane | April 15, 2008 12:19 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Of the Democrats I know in the state of Indiana (I am a resident), those over 30-35 years old are going with Clinton, the younger generation is going with Obama.
Many of my son's friends (first time voters who are college students) are voting for Obama, though they were all raised in conservative to moderate Republican homes. It is Obama's "youth" and "hope" which they find attractive...plus, their distate for Hillary Clinton.
5. Posted by Diane | April 15, 2008 12:19 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on April 15, 2008 00:19