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Looking Ahead to Indiana

Click the below link for an analysis of the upcoming media/Democrat primary in Indiana.

Indiana Democrat Primary

-- Whites outnumber blacks in Indiana by a 9:1 ratio. Quite unlike various states in the deep South, whites in Indiana still make up the overwhelming majority of Democrat primary voters.

-- Most of Obama's support outside the black demographic consists of weathly liberals, Yuppies, and young and inexperienced college and grad students. Indiana, however, is a blue-collar state with less-than-average median and per capita incomes.

-- Obama fares well with Democrat farmers (who by long-standing tradition are socialists), but Indiana is more urban than rural. The state's population density is much higher than, for example, Wisconsin's.

Ergo:

Clinton easily will win the state. Probably not by the same margin by which she'll prevail in Pennsylvania (which possesses a much older demographic and more Catholics), but a hefty margin nonetheless.


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Comments (5)

As a Hoosier for 35 of my 3... (Below threshold)
Brian the Adequate:

As a Hoosier for 35 of my 37.5 years(except for 2.5 years in Grad school in Colorado), don't forget to add in:

1) Open primary with an unchallenged R governor and no significant house primary battles on the R side. Lots of R voters are gonna vote for Hillary to try and send the fight to the convention.

2) Evan Bayh endorses Hillary, Evan carries a lot of weight in Indiana. Obama does not have anyone even close supporting him.

3) As much as it pains me to say it about my home state, don't underestimate the race factor in Indiana. My experience suggests that 10-15% of the Dem voters will not vote for a black man. Heck, the KKK was listed under Fraternal organizations in the phone book in some small towns as late as 1996.

I think Hillary is gonna cruise in Indiana and absent Bayh as the VP, You can chalk Indiana up to McCain already no matter who the donkeys nominate.

Clinton easily will win ... (Below threshold)
Brian:

Clinton easily will win the state.

Gee, you think? I'm sure all those polls that have her up by at least 10 points will sure be happy that your insightful analysis agrees with them.

Brian-Well you mig... (Below threshold)
Rory:

Brian-

Well you might want to go tell Obama he's an idiot.

From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan INDIANAPOLIS, Ind. -- On the second day of his Indiana bus tour, Obama said the state could be a potential "tiebreaker" in the lengthy nomination process.

"I think Indiana is very important," Obama said. "We've got three contests coming up in pretty big states -- Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Indiana. They all have significant numbers of delegates, and they are states where Sen. Clinton and I are actively campaigning."

"You know, Sen. Clinton is more favored in Pennsylvania," he added, "and I'm right now a little more favored in North Carolina, so Indiana right now may end up being the tiebreaker. So we want to work very hard in Indiana. While Sen. Clinton has some advantages here, I benefit coming from an adjoining state.

Obama:Indiana Could be Tiebreaker

MSNBC First Read

I think Obama's remarks abo... (Below threshold)
COgirl:

I think Obama's remarks about Pennsylvania are going to come back and bite him in the ass in Indiana. This should be an easy Clinton win, barring any more lies from her. Or at least getting caught lying again.

Of the Democrats I know in ... (Below threshold)
Diane:

Of the Democrats I know in the state of Indiana (I am a resident), those over 30-35 years old are going with Clinton, the younger generation is going with Obama.

Many of my son's friends (first time voters who are college students) are voting for Obama, though they were all raised in conservative to moderate Republican homes. It is Obama's "youth" and "hope" which they find attractive...plus, their distate for Hillary Clinton.




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