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Economy Update

Believe it or not the country has not gone into a recession.

As of March 31 there had not been a single quarter of negative real GDP growth, much less the two consecutive negative quarters that economic conventional wisdom holds is necessary to declare a recession. The economy grew at the same pace in Q1 of this year as it did in Q4 of last year. That growth rate was very muted -- 0.6% -- but, still, a gain is a gain. It's likely the Q1 growth rate will be revised upwards. In Q2 and in Q3, 2007, the economy grew very strongly. Notwithstanding what you might have heard from Pravda-Media.

Speaking of the "R" word, for the media's and academia's desired recession to come about, in real life, it'll need to occur very quickly. The massive doses of liquidity the Fed has pumped into the system will begin having an effect late this year. There also are those tax rebate checks to take into account. It's hard to conceive of a negative real growth rate in Q4. As alluded to above, Q4 2007 and Q1 2008 both were above the expansion line. Essentially that leaves a six-month window -- Q2 and Q3 -- for projection to turn into reality. Time will tell.

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Comments (12)

Contrary to their campaign ... (Below threshold)
GianiD:

Contrary to their campaign promises, libs have hurt the US economy since taking over.

Gas prices have increased OVER 150% since they took over. Maybe Krugman, Down, NBC, etc can mention that!

Newspapers are in recession... (Below threshold)
Mark L:

Newspapers are in recession, therefore, whatever is happening to the rest of the economy, the country is in a recession.

Who ya gonna believe -- your own lying eyes or reporters and editors that are experiencing layoffs and retrenchment throughout their industry.

I pointed this out to one o... (Below threshold)
SPQR:

I pointed this out to one of our resident trolls earlier after the troll claimed that GDP was dropping.

The analogy I use to explai... (Below threshold)
Neoluddite:

The analogy I use to explain recession vs slower GDP growth is to think of driving a car. Quarterly GDP growth of 3% is like flooring the accelerator. Growth of .06% is a cruise control control adjustment. We're still maintaining 70 miles per hour. Recession is the car actually slowing down. At the speed we've attained from years of pedal to the metal growth, even a small decrease would be no cause for panic. The U.S. economy is still clipping along nicely.

If people don't pa... (Below threshold)
Greg:


If people don't pay attention to their own situations, they're in for lies and misgivings from the media and the government. It's simple! Ask yourself whether or not you're in better or worse shape financially than you were even 6 months ago!

If you're under 30, invest every dollar that you can in an IRA or some other longterm investing program. Prepare for the future and manage your credit situation with focus and goals!

The truth will never be spu... (Below threshold)
COgirl:

The truth will never be spun in the correct light as long as W is president. If there was Dem in the White House, everything would be coming up roses according to the MSM. Let's face it, it took forever for the media to acknowledge that jobs were being created after the Clinton recession.

It is possible our record-b... (Below threshold)

It is possible our record-breaking, best economy of all time might slip into recession, but it is by no means certain. The media, having bad-mouthed the economy for the last several years of strong growth, have to claim recession at the early signs of weakness, lest they expose their previous reporting as utterly false.

Should we actually enter a recession (which we could not possibly know until the figures for Q2 AND Q3 are in, if both come in negative), it will be portrayed as a Great Depression. Watch and see.

In the meantime, Gross Domestic Product, manufacturing output, per capita income, personal income, total employment, real income, median family income, and other measures are at ALL TIME HIGHS. Some may not have heard about this . . .

I don't know much about oth... (Below threshold)
Steven Reece:

I don't know much about other areas of the country, but down here in my neck of the woods, we were covered in ice and/or snow for a lot of those two quarters. Is it possible that all of that frozen global warming caused people to hunker down a bit? Just the fevered musings of another bitter clinger, please disregard if too unsophisticated, or lacking the proper nuance.

GianiD -It's been ... (Below threshold)

GianiD -

It's been my observation over the past 30 years that when Democrats promise prosperity, you'd better prepare for problems. Clinton was an anomaly, because he had a Republican Congress holding him back after the first two years - AND he didn't try messing with the economy much.

When the Dems got in - I expected trouble of some sort. Didn't expect high oil prices - but I was pretty sure something was going to go off the rails.

By the way, anyone ELSE find it odd that apparently the ONLY thing Congress can find to do about the high cost of oil is hold hearings?

Hooverville, damnit!... (Below threshold)
John F Not Kerry:

Hooverville, damnit!

JL-What else can t... (Below threshold)
GianiD:

JL-

What else can the Dems do but talk?

Didnt they also claim to want to clean up Congress? Anyone see Wm Jefferson booted yet? What he did was far more offensive than Foley. Foley was flirting with someone, Wm Jefferson was farkng everyone he could, by taking bribes, on tape no less.


Dem politicians are to action as union workers are to maximum effort and efficiency.

If you're under 30, invest ... (Below threshold)
Pam:

If you're under 30, invest every dollar that you can in an IRA or some other longterm investing program. Prepare for the future and manage your credit situation with focus and goals!

Posted by Greg | April 30, 2008 5:35 PM

Greg- I couldn't agree more with that statement!




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