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The DNC's Worst Nightmare - Obama Limping To The Finishing Line


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Assuming Hillary Clinton wins Kentucky (which appears to be a lock) she will have won 7 of the 10 primaries held since Feb. 20. Going into the final four primaries (after Kentucky) she has the chance to bump that number to 11 out of the last 14 primaries. Even if she were to split the final four contests that would be 9 of the last 14 primaries.

Clinton since Feb. 20th.

Ohio primary
Rhode Island primary
Texas primary
Pennsylvania primary
Indiana primary
West Virginia primary

Obama since Feb. 20th.

Texas caucuses
Vermont primary
Wyoming caucuses
Mississippi primary
Guam caucuses (by one vote)
North Carolina primary

Remaining

Kentucky primary
Oregon primary
Puerto Rico primary
Montana primary
South Dakota primary

If you put all (or even most) of those remaining primaries in the Clinton column Obama doesn't look like a man marching his way to a nomination, but rather a candidate on cruise control trying to play out the clock. Clinton's best hope is to show that the Obama "four corners" offense doesn't look much like the heyday of Obamania. Sports is littered with examples of teams who let off the gas too early then couldn't reignite their powerhouse offenses when their opponent made a furious comeback. It's a long-shot, but it just might be the only realistic path to the nomination left for Clinton.

Of course she'll have to change the media and her parties script of Obama inevitability, but if she keeps winning they might just do that for her. Super delegates are, for the most part, politicians or political types who are by nature inclined to head in the direction of the prevailing winds. Change the weather and you just might change the totals...

Many of those super delegates were for Hillary before they were against her. Her challenge will be to flip the flip-flopper's one more time based on Obama's record since the Potomac Primaries.


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Comments (8)

They say that's it's mathem... (Below threshold)
Arthur:

They say that's it's mathematically impossible for her to collect enough delegates to win. No argument. But she doesn't have to. She just needs to get enough so that Obama doesn't win. Once you get past the first ballot at the convention, it's a whole new ballgame.

(there's a quibble. The delegates aren't completely commited like most are in the Republican convention. But, for the sake of argument, it's fair to assume that there'll be very few regular delegates who'll switch until after the first ballot)

All the speculation is fun ... (Below threshold)

All the speculation is fun considering what it's doing to the democrats...but in reality there is just no way they can PO the black vote by nominating anyone but Obama if he has the most delegates going into the convention, even if it's only a few delegates. Forget about conservatives staying home, the blacks will stay home in droves, jesse jackson will be getting arrested on TV, etc etc. I just can't see them throwing away their only way to win a national election.

To me that says it all abou... (Below threshold)
WildWillie:

To me that says it all about democrats: "Democrats aren't as committed as republicans." So very true. ww

Hey, don't forget about tho... (Below threshold)
guido:

Hey, don't forget about those 7 new states Obama found. I hear that the Wyoklazona primary is "winner take all".

Here's the Democrats' insan... (Below threshold)
sam:

Here's the Democrats' insanity in a nutshell:

Obama doesn't show up in WV, loses by 40%+, gets about 25% of the votes, and still gets at least 7 delegates. It's this insane practice of rewarding even extreme losers that is the crux of their current mess.

The people of WVs (of all p... (Below threshold)
Scrapiron:

The people of WVs (of all places) got it right. If you look at, and listen to the total Hussein O you can see nothing but danger for America. The red light is flashing, how many democrats have the brains to see it? Are they a class of people that will cut off a hand to see if it hurts? Yes it will hurt, and no you can't put it back a year from now.

If you look at the last 6 s... (Below threshold)
Jim:

If you look at the last 6 states that Obama won, you will notice that 3 of them were caucuses. You know the kind of thing that everyone knows just how you are voting when you vote. At least the Dems version of a caucus. You feel like you need to vote just like everybody around you or you stick out as racist and we can't let everybody there think that! Real life voting just maybe different.

West Virginia just tried to... (Below threshold)
Anne:

West Virginia just tried to send a loud and resounding message to the Democratic Party; we do not want Obama as the nominee. Obama and the party just shrug off the win as insignificant. The Democratic Party is not listening which begs one to ask why? What is the hidden agenda? Obama comes from a radical black theological church as witness by the tapes of Rev. Wright. His beliefs are the same as his pastor (even his pastor tried to tell the public this fact). This man will not unite this country. Obama will pull its guts apart and spread them across the nation, which should be clear to even to everyone by now. The Democratic Party has selected a man that does not even know how many states we have in the Union as witness by his 57 or 58 states with two to go comment. His Chicago criminal friends seem to be an asset to him rather than a disadvantage. Obama has money and "greed" will help him along this path. This vote obviously will come down to the Superdelegates. Are there any Superdelegates left with respect for America; a reverence for citizens who have given the ultimate of sacrifice "their lives" so that America will be the land of "freedom and choice"? This is not race issue; this is a man that should not be President of the United States because of his character.




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