I really try to avoid making predictions. I know I'll usually get them wrong. But I'm going to go out on a limb here, stick my neck out a bit, and make a prediction. I hope I'll be wrong, but experience has made me a cynic.
Israel and Hamas have reached a truce agreement, and it just went into effect. Here is my prediction:
Within two weeks, there will be at least one major terrorist attack on Israel (or, one foiled) by a group that will go out of its way to distance itself from Hamas. The attack will come from the Gaza Strip, where Hamas holds near-absolute power, but it will deny any and all responsibility for the attack. The world community will urge Israel to "show restraint" and "not perpetuate the cycle of violence" even as it buries its dead. The calls on Hamas to find and punish those who carry out the plot will be far, far quieter (if made at all). Likewise any calls on Hamas to prevent any more such attacks.
Two weeks. By July 3rd. I'm on the record. Mark it on your calendar.
Permalink | E-mail This | Technorati Links | Sphere: Related Content | Digg this! | FARK It!
Filed under:
War On Terror
Comments (17)
JT, I predict the sun will ... (Below threshold)1. Posted by WildWillie | June 19, 2008 7:21 AM | Score: 8 (8 votes cast)
JT, I predict the sun will rise in the East tomorrow and set in the West. I know, risky thinking. ww
1. Posted by WildWillie | June 19, 2008 7:21 AM |
Score: 8 (8 votes cast)
Posted on June 19, 2008 07:21
2. Posted by Tom | June 19, 2008 7:29 AM | Score: 3 (3 votes cast)
This is Hamas, not Fatah.
The bombs will rain, but these animals don't have enough self-respect pretend innocence. They will be the first to boast about it.
2. Posted by Tom | June 19, 2008 7:29 AM |
Score: 3 (3 votes cast)
Posted on June 19, 2008 07:29
3. Posted by Clancy | June 19, 2008 7:52 AM | Score: 9 (9 votes cast)
Two weeks? Seriously? I've never know you to be such an optimist. I have $5 on Monday, June 23rd. Whose in?
3. Posted by Clancy | June 19, 2008 7:52 AM |
Score: 9 (9 votes cast)
Posted on June 19, 2008 07:52
4. Posted by John | June 19, 2008 8:10 AM | Score: 4 (4 votes cast)
As a Canadian in China, all I can say is how come you have not heard that the attack has already happened?
4. Posted by John | June 19, 2008 8:10 AM |
Score: 4 (4 votes cast)
Posted on June 19, 2008 08:10
5. Posted by flasher | June 19, 2008 8:52 AM | Score: 6 (6 votes cast)
i live in israel and everybody here understands that this "truce" is good only for hamas and olmert
hamas will rearm and after few weeks this "truce" will end
and olmert will do anything to stay few more days in office
i dont know if you hear our news ,
basically olmert has around 5-6% approval
he is charged with 4 (going on 5) corruption cases
he will sell his grandma for a few bucks
and israeli security doesn't really bother him
5. Posted by flasher | June 19, 2008 8:52 AM |
Score: 6 (6 votes cast)
Posted on June 19, 2008 08:52
6. Posted by 914 | June 19, 2008 10:01 AM | Score: 6 (6 votes cast)
"Basically Olmert has 5-6% approval. He is charged with 4 (going on 5) corruption cases. He will sell His Grandma for a few buck's and Isreali security does'nt really bother Him."
Well if He loses power there's alway's our Congress where He'd fit right in with the corruption, high approval rating's and being willing to do anything to stay in office for a few more day's.
6. Posted by 914 | June 19, 2008 10:01 AM |
Score: 6 (6 votes cast)
Posted on June 19, 2008 10:01
7. Posted by 914 | June 19, 2008 10:04 AM | Score: 4 (4 votes cast)
Ohh, and putting Isreali security at risk would also be a plus in our Congress.
7. Posted by 914 | June 19, 2008 10:04 AM |
Score: 4 (4 votes cast)
Posted on June 19, 2008 10:04
8. Posted by twolaneflash | June 19, 2008 10:39 AM | Score: 5 (5 votes cast)
I'll take The Sabbath, June 29th, after the muslim weekly hatefest on Friday. I'm in for $5.
This kettle will boil over quickly. History repeats. Hate is one of those mental illnesses in which the patient is unaware their behaviour is being based on delusional thinking. Consequently, the infected are unable to assist in diagnosis and treatment of their disease, which must be imposed on them lest they harm others with their diseased thoughts and actions. Strong medicine and isolation in a non-stimulating environment is indicated. Jews are great doctors and will save the patient if they can.
8. Posted by twolaneflash | June 19, 2008 10:39 AM |
Score: 5 (5 votes cast)
Posted on June 19, 2008 10:39
9. Posted by hyperbolist | June 19, 2008 10:58 AM | Score: -10 (10 votes cast)
914, lear'n how to ' use apos'trophe's. Did you sleep through the fourth grade?
9. Posted by hyperbolist | June 19, 2008 10:58 AM |
Score: -10 (10 votes cast)
Posted on June 19, 2008 10:58
10. Posted by WildWillie | June 19, 2008 11:01 AM | Score: 6 (6 votes cast)
Hyper, quit being a dick. We aren't here to have a papers graded! ww
10. Posted by WildWillie | June 19, 2008 11:01 AM |
Score: 6 (6 votes cast)
Posted on June 19, 2008 11:01
11. Posted by Paul Hooson | June 19, 2008 11:11 AM | Score: -1 (1 votes cast)
Interestingly, it has been both Russia and China that have been putting pressure on Hamas to recognize Israel and stop the violence. Hamas has been offered humanitarian aid as an incentive as well. In 2006, China and some other nations offered $500 in humanitarian aid to the Palestinian people to help encourage an end to violence and terrorism. Both China and Russia have voiced full cooperation to stopping any form of international terrorism.
The Hamas leadership stands to lose substantial humanitarian aid funds if they continue to allow violence. However, I agree with Jay that this is unfortunately most likely, and sooner rather than later.
11. Posted by Paul Hooson | June 19, 2008 11:11 AM |
Score: -1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on June 19, 2008 11:11
12. Posted by ODA315 | June 19, 2008 11:54 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Like me., I'm geusing 914 iz a pubic skool prowdukt.
PZ...the nEA neeedz mo muny so plees payy teechers mor.
12. Posted by ODA315 | June 19, 2008 11:54 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on June 19, 2008 11:54
13. Posted by irongrampa | June 19, 2008 12:21 PM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
It's saddening to see yet another farce being undertaken here. I cannot fathom how, given past history, ANYONE could take Hamas, or ANY of the terror orgs seriously when "truce" is promoted.
At some point, this situation will be resolved. I would turn a blind eye to the process of resolution, since it's going to be ultimately very bloody.
There can be NO reason or negotiation with an entity whose goal is the eradication of an entire society and country. Past history has borne this out.
13. Posted by irongrampa | June 19, 2008 12:21 PM |
Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Posted on June 19, 2008 12:21
14. Posted by 914 | June 19, 2008 12:41 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Sorry ODA B -315 and hyperbowl cleaner. Next time I will translate in Russian just for You scholars.
14. Posted by 914 | June 19, 2008 12:41 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on June 19, 2008 12:41
15. Posted by GoCougs | June 19, 2008 1:16 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Actually 914, I was poking fun at hyperboy, the NEA, and liberals in general. No offense was intended towards you.
15. Posted by GoCougs | June 19, 2008 1:16 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on June 19, 2008 13:16
16. Posted by ODA315 | June 19, 2008 1:17 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Sorry 914, used the wrong handle.
Please accept my apology
16. Posted by ODA315 | June 19, 2008 1:17 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on June 19, 2008 13:17
17. Posted by Clancy | June 24, 2008 2:27 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
So I missed by TWO days....
Just how many people believed this would last -seriously?
17. Posted by Clancy | June 24, 2008 2:27 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on June 24, 2008 14:27