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A million miles here, a million miles there

We are all doomed.....maybe in 2036.

Since Apophis was discovered in 2004, asteroid-watchers have known that it has a slim chance of hitting Earth in 2036. At 270 metres wide, it is too small to rival the object that wiped out the dinosaurs, but it could cause devastating tsunamis were it to hit the ocean. Worrying as this is, we have been able to take comfort in the computed probability of impact, which is just 1 in 45,000. Coyote.JPG

Now it seems the true risk is unclear, thanks to minute effects that the calculations didn't take into account. "You really can't estimate the ...

Unfortunately the rest of the New Scientist article is available only if one wants to pay to be a subscriber. Michael Reilly writes-

Then scientists crunched some numbers, and the odds of a terrestrial bullseye dropped to 1 in 45,000, where they stand today. Sort of. It turns out that there are a few things we still don't know about the orbit of Apophis, which could change its projected course by millions of miles, according to an article yesterday in New Scientist. Are we going to get slammed by the 270-meter long hunk of rock? We probably won't know for sure until we get a closer look at its close-ish Earth flyby in 2013.

We already know that Apophis is due for a close pass by Earth in 2029, and if things go just right (or wrong), April 13, 2036 could be a very bad day for us.

While I'll be 75 in 2036(If I live past this or next year, it may be a miracle. Today I get very bad news on the cancer battle front that I'm fighting. My tumors are back, bigger and more numerous. This after months of chemo and radiation.), and have no living children, I do hope mankind avoids the calamnity of a asteroid strike.

Hat tip- Alex Knapp at OTB who writes- "There's no need to panic just yet, but this frustrating lack of information does provide more evidence that we really do need to steer some more funding and work into the asteroid detection/deflection area."


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Comments (13)

Damnit, Bill, I'm really so... (Below threshold)

Damnit, Bill, I'm really sorry to hear your bad news. Keep fighting as always. Peace be with you, friend.

Sunday, April 13, 2036 - At... (Below threshold)

Sunday, April 13, 2036 - At least it is not Friday the 13th for those who are superstitious or suffer from paraskavedekatriaphobia or friggatriskaidekaphobia (fear of Friday the 13th).

Perhaps according to the superstition, this will mean that it would miss the Earth.

Those expecting the end of the world, can now regard it as the means of the end.

In Hebrew, it is 16 Nisan 5796, the second day of Passover. Jews won't have to worry about the asteroid as long as we have the "blood on the doorposts" (or the mezuzah as the equivalent).

I am so terribly sorry abou... (Below threshold)
AJ:

I am so terribly sorry about your bad news, Bill.

I'm more worried right now ... (Below threshold)
Dave thA:

I'm more worried right now about Barrack Asteroid Obama due to hit the world in 2008.

Hang in there Bill...

Bill, sorry to hear about t... (Below threshold)

Bill, sorry to hear about the news. We will pray for you. Matter of fact, just did.

Sad part is it is like know... (Below threshold)

Sad part is it is like knowing you will miss the end of the movie. I am thinking no on sea levels rising because of Global Warming, yes to the asteroid, and unfortunately Bruce Willis will be too old and Morgan Freeman will probably not be President so we are all screwed.

The Mormons will be prepared. They live far enough away from the oceans in Utah and they have tons of canned food. Good thing the SCOTUS approved all of us packin' heat because I know whose asses we are gonna loot from. Hint--I will catch a Jazz game while I am there.

Bill I'm sorry to he... (Below threshold)

Bill
I'm sorry to hear of your bad reports today. I'll keep praying for your health and peace.

A thought: Would you consider live blogging the final two majors and the Ryder Cup? I know you had great material to work with during the Open on that Monday, but that was such a unique and different contribution to this blog.

I think it may be an even more interesting idea if you editorialized some in the live blog. I'm thinking Gary McCord as he might blog it from the 19th hole.

Just a thought.

Keep fightin'. Your impact... (Below threshold)
epador:

Keep fightin'. Your impact is great.

PBWY

Bill,99.9% of "alt... (Below threshold)
Dave A.:

Bill,

99.9% of "alternative medicine" is a bunch of hooey, however, there are a couple of methods for addressing cancers that are based on good science but are just too new to be included in standard care.

One is DCA (dichloroacetate) which can restart the mitochondria in cancer cells, allowing them to recognize that they are defective and commit cellular suicide (apoptosis).

The other is Gc-MAF (glycoprotein macrophage activating factor). Cancer cells secrete an enzyme that blocks the body's conversion of Gc to Gc-MAF, allowing them to escape detection by the immune system. Direct injection of Gc-MAF
can get around that and allow the immune system to fight the cancer.

Both methods show promising results. You can google DCA and Gc-MAF, but you can also get a quick introduction to both via www.thedcasite.com.

You might want to keep these in mind if you get to a point where conventional medicine has done all it can do.

Keep fighting.

None of us have a lock on b... (Below threshold)
philw1776:

None of us have a lock on being there in 2036, or even tomorrow morning for that matter. I wish you the best in your personal battle and my very best to your family.

I am hoping to miss the future Chelsea Clinton presidential campaign myself.

Bill, you and your family a... (Below threshold)

Bill, you and your family are in my thoughts and prayers.

I truly appreciate your posts, and am counting on a lot more to come over the years, so hang in there for me.

May God bless you, keep you, and restore health to you.

Do not go quietly. Rage ag... (Below threshold)
twolaneflash:

Do not go quietly. Rage against the darkness and light a candle. The ripples of your pebble on the ocean of life are out of your sight, and they have brought, hopefully, blessings to unknown souls.

Be at peace, now, for the end is always near, for each of us. Your suffering is not without value to your spirit, though it ravage body and mind. I pray that you have strength to keep the faith and finish the course. Remember, good health is just the slowest way to die.

Just a bit of snark: if the... (Below threshold)
John Anderson Author Profile Page:

Just a bit of snark: if the path of a sizeable asteriod/planetoid/rock cannot be determined centuries after things like The Law of Gravity, The Law[s] of Thermodynamics (motion), Calculus etc started to be applied, how is it that the field which spawned The Chaos Theory (well, re-discovered, but it was a climate specialist who noted his computer models could not work reliably) can claim (according to AlleGory, not necessarily actual scientists in the field) to be absolutely certain of what will happen in the next fifty to a hundred years?

End snark. For now.




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